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Les Émirats quittent l’OPEP : le cartel pétrolier se fissure #octogone84

The discussion opens with major geopolitical news: the United Arab Emirates (UAE) withdrawing from OPEC after 60 years. This decision by Abu Dhabi signifies a significant shift in global oil dynamics. The UAE seeks strategic freedom to increase production, aiming for 5 million barrels per day, and to export based on its own interests, diverging from Saudi Arabia's traditional collective discipline to support oil prices. This move is also driven by a deeper fracture between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, with the UAE wanting to monetize its oil investments due to a perceived scarcity of cash. Logistically, the UAE benefits from the Apschan-Fujairah pipeline, allowing it to bypass the Strait of Hormuz for a portion of its crude exports, enhancing its autonomy. Gunter elaborates on this, explaining that OPEC's past role was to maximize long-term revenue by limiting production to control prices. However, the market has changed significantly, with the US now being the largest potential producer due to shale gas and Venezuelan reserves, followed by Russia. This diminishes OPEC's leverage. Abu Dhabi's capacity is 5.5 million barrels per day, but it's currently limited to exporting 2.5 million, aiming for 3.5 million. The UAE sees it as more beneficial to align with the US and Israel. This alliance is underscored by Abu Dhabi's acknowledgment of at least 300 Israeli military experts in the country, making it an impossible partner for several other Middle Eastern countries. This also reflects a divergence from Saudi Arabia, particularly concerning the Houthi conflict in Yemen. Saudi Arabia secured a peace deal with the Houthis for safe passage through Yemen, an agreement not extended to others. This left the UAE to make independent decisions, choosing a strong defense axis with Israeli intelligence and American military might. This is an irreversible decision, marking a clear alignment.