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Last summary: Apr 23, 2026

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released its monthly jobs report, indicating an addition of 178,000 jobs and a modest 0.1% decrease in unemployment. However, this data contradicts other economic indicators, such as consumer sentiment hitting its lowest level since data collection began, and a Conference Board survey showing the highest number of consumers ever finding jobs hard to get. Indeed’s data also pointed to an extremely defensive hiring posture among companies. Further evidence contradicting the BLS report includes over 60,000 job cuts announced in March alone, low hiring shown by the Fed's internal data, an increase in weekly unemployment claims to 219,000, and the BLS's own report noting a shrinking labor force by 396,000. These discrepancies—rising unemployment claims, job cuts, and a shrinking labor force alongside an official jobs figure increase—have eroded trust in these statistics, especially with frequent and substantial revisions.
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In 2025, the world's largest companies reportedly spent around $400 billion on capital expenditures to support the development of artificial intelligence. This sum, adjusted for inflation, is equivalent to nine Manhattan projects or two Apollo programs, all within a single year and solely for infrastructure. To put it into perspective, last year, more money was allocated for constructing and fitting out data centers than was spent on building single-family residential homes during the same period. This figure does not even include non-public companies like Anthropic or OpenAI, for which reliable financial data is harder to obtain, nor does it cover other costs beyond facility construction and fit-out, such as staffing, energy, security, and strategic acquisitions. These numbers are also specific to 2025, and recent announcements suggest that spending this year will once again reach new record highs. While the substantial figures in the AI industry may not be surprising, it's notable that in the almost four years since the public release of Chat GPT, not a single one of these companies has managed to turn a profit from this technology, even with generous financial projections and accounting methods. The exception has been Nvidia and other upstream hardware and chip manufacturers, who consistently generate profits by supplying the necessary components, akin to selling "pickaxes and shovels" in a gold rush. However, a closer look at the numbers raises questions about where these "shovels" are actually going.
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The perception that the price of everything is outpacing inflation is a common sentiment, despite official economic measurements suggesting otherwise. Economics 101 teaches that inflation is measured by tracking the weighted cost of a basket of goods and services, known as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicates that since mid-2023, the measured inflation rate has been around 3% annually, trending downwards to about 2.5% today. However, this figure often feels disconnected from daily experience, as many consumers struggle to find items that have only increased by 10% over three years. Historically, essentials like healthcare, housing, and education have outpaced inflation, with their impact on the average offset by cheaper non-essentials such as cell phones, software, and televisions. Today, even these non-essentials are becoming more expensive. Computer hardware is now a strategic investment, PlayStations have seen significant price hikes, new cars average close to $50,000, and software has largely shifted to expensive subscriptions. Fast food, once a cheap convenience, is now a costly treat, and energy bills are soaring. Housing, healthcare, and education continue to be problematic. Furthermore, tariff discussions are causing even generic consumer goods to become more expensive. This raises questions about whether anything is still offsetting these rising costs or if there are issues with the statistical methods used to measure inflation.
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Earlier this week, an announcement on True Social by the president regarding productive talks with Iran to deescalate regional tensions, inferred a loosening of shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. This suggested the potential for lower oil prices and a more positive outlook for financial markets. What caught attention was a significant spike in futures trading within these markets just 16 minutes before the announcement, indicating insider knowledge and potential profit. This mystery speculator could have made up to $60 million in 20 minutes. Insider trading has become an expected occurrence in Washington, with officials often outperforming top hedge funds. While considered immoral and potentially treasonous, there's a prevailing indifference, with many assuming it doesn't significantly impact them personally. However, this week's trade garnered attention for two reasons: it occurred in a market directly affecting people through high oil prices, and its brazen nature. The trades involved hundreds of millions of dollars in notional value within 60 seconds, 15 minutes before the market-altering announcement, suggesting a deliberate lack of discretion.
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