CTM Live Session - Wednesday, April 8

The speaker begins by thanking everyone for their thoughts and prayers regarding a recent surgery, which went well, and notes that the road to recovery has begun. The discussion then shifts to current market events, particularly the ongoing situation between the U.S. and Iran. The speaker expresses surprise at the market's focus on upcoming closed-door negotiations on Friday, especially given recent escalations like infrastructure being blown up in Saudi Arabia and continued missile launches. Despite these tensions, the market seems to be reacting positively to the prospect of a lasting ceasefire, suggesting a mutual will for resolution. However, the speaker acknowledges that escalation remains a possibility, and the situation must be dealt with as it unfolds. Meta's stock jump is noted, attributed to news about the company releasing a new model. The speaker speculates that this "model that has teeth" could be a significant development for Meta, allowing them to catch up in the AI space after substantial investments in LLMs and talent. The market's positive reaction to this news is evident. Returning to the U.S.-Iran situation, the speaker highlights an interesting detail about tolls, which were initially collected in either one or stablecoin but are now only collected in stablecoin, with "one" being dropped. This change, coupled with the potential for a peace agreement, raises questions about the terms and the role of the U.S. dollar-denominated stablecoins or Bitcoin in such an arrangement, which could benefit the U.S. treasury market. Oil prices are observed to be reacting quickly to these developments. The speaker mentions personal commitments, having spent time with his wife post-surgery, and acknowledges that his market pulse isn't fully active, but prioritizes family. The speaker then provides an update on CTM developments, specifically the finalization of V4 on equities. This new component is designed to be an "income engine" for a long-term portfolio and will be made interactive through a Discord channel and a new member area on the website. Several portfolio examples are discussed, showcasing the strong performance of V4. TQQ, for instance, has a CAGR of 70% (up from 57%) with a reduced drawdown of 18% (from 22.7%) and a 72% win rate. MicroStrategy (MSTR) also shows impressive figures, with a CAGR of 129% (previously 147%) and a reduced drawdown of 13% (from 24%). NVIDIA demonstrates a 63% CAGR and improved drawdown and win rates. Tesla and IBIT also exhibit strong performance, with IBIT at a 77% CAGR (up from 69%). The "Bulls" ETF, a three-times leveraged bull fund, introduced in January 2023, shows massive performance with a 464% overall return and a 15% drawdown, making it a strong candidate for the CTMV4 basket. LABU, another three-times leveraged biotech ETF, is being monitored, but currently has little to report, as biotechs don't often enter bull mode. However, the speaker expresses a long-term belief that the biotech sector will "explode" in coming years, driven by advancements in LLMs. This is illustrated by an example of Anthropic's new model, which was deemed too powerful and dangerous to release publicly due to its ability to find security flaws. This highlights a trend of advanced models becoming privately held, potentially giving exclusive access to certain companies, especially in biotech, leading to incredible breakthroughs. The speaker then addresses some upcoming changes to the portfolio link, specifically the removal of confusing wording about "hood allocation" and the clarification that JEPQ is not playing a role in the income engine. The majority of the income engine will be based on V4 on stocks, facilitating natural rotation. The goal is to make the V4 equity channel interactive, allowing community ideas, such as commodities like gold, to be incorporated and modeled. The speaker acknowledges the very high profit factors observed in some instruments like TQQ and GBTC, and questions the place of FNGD's 23% profit factor in their modeling, noting that FNGU was their best-performing model on a net basis. MSTR and TQQ are highlighted as "absolute monsters" and are expected to have significant weighting in the income engine. A significant amount of work and energy will be dedicated to V4 equities and fostering collaboration within the community. The speaker anticipates getting "roaring" on Monday, with this as a high priority, while continuing to work on LABU in the interim. Returning to the market's reaction to the "fragile ceasefire," the speaker expresses disbelief that the markets haven't completely faded yesterday's gains, especially given recent attacks in Saudi Arabia and Iran's missile launches. The resilience of the markets suggests a belief that the upcoming meeting between Iran and the U.S. on Friday indicates a genuine will to de-escalate. The speaker then elaborates on the portfolio's structure, which involves building out a core portfolio, then satellites, and finally raw materials and biotech, with an initial one-third allocation to everything. Future years will focus on feeding and growing the portfolio. Deployment strategies include doubling allocation for drawdowns of 15-25% and tripling for 25%+, along with balancing and circuit breakers, specifically for the high-dividend portion. The ultimate goal is full automation, though the interactive portfolio portion presents challenges. The speaker mentions hearing speculation that China may have urged Iran towards negotiations, potentially leading to increased U.S. control over global energy choke points. The speaker acknowledges that Israel remains a "wild card" that could unravel the fragile situation. The speaker recalls a previous "game of chicken" where he believed both sides ultimately did not want to fully follow through on threats. The speaker expresses enthusiasm for the stress testing and "red team" efforts applied to the V4 model, anticipating future improvements. He aims to release it early next week after a "small cleanup." The addition of "bolts" is praised, and the speaker plans to focus on gold and miners next, looking at historical data and involving the community in identifying instruments to model. The speaker concludes by reiterating the commitment to keep the "engine going full throttle" while prioritizing family, and expresses hope for more progress to share soon. He also mentions looking into XLV and the sell-side of certain instruments, noting that while some can be traded on both sides, he shies away from shorting TQQ.