Pétrole à 115$, Folie IA en Bourse. J'achète "ça" en Mai à la place

While everyone focuses on oil, which is reaching new highs, it's important to consider other, more significant factors. The price of oil, while impacting purchasing power and potentially leading to recession, is not the sole determinant. More critical are interest rates. The US 20-year interest rate has been in a three-year congestion pattern, which is poised to break out. A downward break would signify rising rates, a concern given persistent government spending. This could stifle credit, especially for AI investments, as the market anticipates negative impacts from sustained US rate hikes. Rising US rates also imply inflation, prompting central banks to potentially raise rates further, impacting the dollar and, consequently, the euro. A stronger dollar due to higher US rates would attract capital from Europe back to the US. Another key area to watch is the yen against the dollar. If Japanese rates rise more sharply than US rates (which aim to remain low), the yen could strengthen, drawing Japanese investment, particularly in tech, back to Japan—a "carry trade" reversal. The euro-dollar pair also merits attention. While the dollar is firm, its ability to break below 1.0616 would signal a repatriation of European flows to the US. Currently, remaining above 1.06 suggests a continued preference for Europe. This range-bound movement between 1.14 and 1.20 indicates short-term fluctuations, but a fundamental shift is expected in the coming months. Regarding a potential recession, the price of copper is a key indicator. A recession is not on the table as long as copper remains above 5.90, retesting 5.50, and breaking a specific downward trendline. A move below 5.80, towards 5.60, would increase recession probabilities. A second leg down in copper would signal market anticipation of recession, leading to dollar strength, US rate fears (implying rate cuts and QE), and economic stimulus, possibly post-Iran with a Trump presidency. However, the current broad copper pattern suggests two main scenarios: a break to the upside indicates governments are stimulating the economy, avoiding recession by injecting money, boosting consumer confidence and consumption, which would also be reflected in increased Chinese discretionary spending and higher copper prices. To provide clear analysis, a new video format is proposed: a 15-20 minute macro video covering economic data and scenarios, followed by another 15-20 minute video on graphical analysis of major indices, commodities, and the euro-dollar pair. Looking at the CAC 40, tech stocks have shown resilience, outperforming industrial indices affected by the unresolved Iran situation and rising oil prices. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have also shown an illusion of strength due to concentration in large AI-driven tech companies. Today, despite a low open, markets have rebounded, which is positive. For the CAC 40, a quick return above 8200 points, serving as support, would signal a resumption of the bullish trend and economic recovery. Increased AI investment drives infrastructure and industrial investment, linking all these aspects. If 8200 proves resistant, and lows are broken, it could signal economic tightening and a return of recession fears. Graphically, a positive bias remains, favoring buying as clear invalidation points allow for controlled risk. The S&P 500, now heavily tech-concentrated, behaves like a tech stock. It has seen minor consolidations at higher levels, not the deeper pullbacks some expected. If it continues its rally, 7200-7300 points could be targets before a stronger consolidation. If it falters around current levels, a retest of previous highs or a 3% dip could occur, but the bullish trend would remain intact above 7100 points. The market is flush with capital, buying every dip. Rising oil prices also drive food inflation, which can lead to social unrest. Agricultural commodities, like wheat, are seeing strong boosts, indicating inflationary pressures that could eventually lead to social crises if trends persist. Commodities remain a favored play. Lithium Americas is breaking out, potentially targeting $6. Agricultural commodities like potash (e.g., Intrepid Potash) are also restarting their upward trend. The long-term view for these remains positive, with a focus on breaking past previous highs. In software, despite tech's continued explosion, there's a gradual return to traditional software. Voltaire Clover shows good resilience, with accumulation favored, aiming for the 72 zone, then 80 or 75. Arcelor and Aperam are performing well. Less favored stocks like Imerys show strong rebound potential, with a large candlestick suggesting a good signal for a reversal play after consolidation. Software companies like Monday, which were heavily beaten down, are trading near cash levels. This presents an opportunity, as they are now valued at a more reasonable 20-25 times profits, after correcting from excessive valuations. While not an optimal timing for a full reversal, a rebound sub-wave is possible, with long-term potential for many software companies not disrupted by AI. Monday needs to break $72-80 to target the $90 gap zone. These stocks are consolidating sideways, offering defensive diversification, especially for portfolios heavy in AI, as they tend to rise when AI stocks dip. Pfizer shows a potential turnaround, having broken its downward trendline, pulled back, and is now poised for a rebound towards $70-75. This is a first step in a multi-stage reversal. E.ON, after a "shakeout" (a final bearish push to flush out weak hands), is nearing a resistance break, potentially leading to a sustained reversal towards €3.10-3.20 and eventually €4. SAP, also in software, is building a pattern and should be watched. SVENCA (basic consumption) has seen a strong rise and is now pulling back, offering accumulation zones between €62-64 for continuation. EEL SES, after congestion, has broken out and is recovering, potentially targeting €5.50. Eram (nickel, manganese) is attractive but held back by an unclear capital increase. In energy, beyond oil, the need for data centers and computing power highlights renewables. Enphase is building a wedge pattern; despite recent results being sold off, it's forming a bottom. Other solar stocks are performing well, but Enphase remains a key one to watch. QuantumScape (batteries) shows strong potential when conditions align, having validated resistance and held support. Albert, in energy, is in a good starting block for a medium-long term move towards $378. Atecor, an American counterpart, saw a direct rebound to resistance; a pullback to $70 would be an opportune entry point for a reversal play. Des locals (emerging markets) remain favored, but a "shakeout" could occur if the market fails to break higher, leading to a dip towards $10 before a later rise. Chinese stocks like JD.com show a good boost and consolidation, with $29 being an accumulation zone. Mensen (retail) has good but not yet great results, forming an inverse head and shoulders; a break above €25 would target €28-29, with €22-22.70 as support. Athos, a French tech company, is in a falling wedge; while timing is uncertain, it should be kept on watch for its sovereignty aspect and erratic movements. Smaller caps also offer opportunities. A stock (unnamed, but with increased volume) shows a clear congestion and potential reversal towards €30. Boac Concept also has good congestion patterns for potential reversal. MGI, with new activities, is undervalued; any dip below €12 should be bought, anticipating a cup-and-handle formation. Reworld Media is attempting to break out of lethargy, testing its median. Finally, Sword, after a small congestion and rebound, has pulled back to a broken support now acting as resistance, offering an entry point for a potential rally. Many small and mid-cap stocks, previously unfairly punished by AI fears, are now returning to the forefront as the market diversifies.