
ALTCOINS : NIVEAU ULTIME ! MOMENT DE VÉRITÉ ! 🚨
Audio Summary
AI Summary
The current market for altcoins is undergoing a crucial retest. Following a previous breakout and reaching an important initial zone, the market is now testing this level. This analysis also delves into liquidity within the crypto market and global liquidity to provide a comprehensive overview.
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Regarding altcoins, the market has broken out of a prolonged consolidation range and reached the first objective: a short-reloading zone, or profit-taking area for swing traders who entered in recent weeks. This could potentially be a top. The outcome of the current retest will determine if prices continue higher, potentially retracing previous bearish movements. Importantly, the speaker emphasizes that this is not yet an "altcoin season," which is expected to take significant time.
The analysis then shifts to the importance of liquidity, explaining why an altcoin season is not yet feasible. A significant retracement could lead to a short-reloading zone for the previous bearish movement, targeting a valuation between 260 and 300 billion dollars, which is not indicative of massive multiples. It's also possible that the market is already at a monthly top. While a dip has occurred, it's not yet sufficient to declare the current momentum dead. Key levels to watch include the retest of the previous impulse's reloading zone (188 to 182 billion) and the breakout retest. If the market re-enters this zone and breaks the last low, it would suggest consolidation, manipulation, and expansion. The speaker maintains that the long-term bottom for altcoins has likely not been reached, viewing the current market as a range and expecting prices to retest the lower boundary.
BNB is highlighted as a crucial indicator. It's believed that BNB has not yet confirmed a bottom and may retrace to collect stops below $500. A consolidation-manipulation phase for BNB is anticipated, leading to a future expansion that will mark its long-term bottom, likely at a lower point. Until BNB bottoms out, the broader altcoin market is unlikely to have bottomed. The pattern observed in BNB is compared to 2022, suggesting a potential stop hunt followed by a bottoming process.
The speaker questions whether the altcoin retracement will end here or if prices will rise further before a potential cleanup. The current liquidity is deemed insufficient to launch an altcoin season or a true rally, with a lack of demand in the crypto market. Demand is observed in other sectors like energy, materials, and technology, which are showing more bullish trends. Limited stablecoin issuance reflects this low demand, as money flows to assets with strong momentum, which crypto currently lacks. This lack of momentum means institutions are not significantly interested, with any institutional interest likely being passive accumulation rather than massive buying.
Examining global liquidity, it's noted that it is still contracting and will take time to expand. This future expansion of global liquidity is expected to bring significant capital into the crypto market and renewed interest in altcoins. From a long-term technical perspective, the altcoin market is not showing bottoming signs. The speaker reiterates their long-held view that a significant altcoin season might not occur until 2027 or 2028. This timeframe is influenced by rising inflation due to geopolitical events, preventing central banks from lowering interest rates to stimulate liquidity, unless a global recession occurs. Consequently, the altcoin market is expected to remain stagnant, with rallies being mere retracements, not long-term bottoms. The overall long-term dynamic for most altcoins remains bearish until global liquidity expands. Indices like TOTALS excluding BTC also show bearish dynamics.
Positive signals would include breaking trendlines, but this is not considered sufficient for a rally. A potential bearish continuation and the development of a new structure would be necessary for the next altcoin rally. Solana has reached its monthly high, a profit-taking zone, and is retracing to fill gaps. BNB, however, has not yet reached a major objective and could still have some upside in the second quarter, though not a "to the moon" scenario. It's likely