CTM Live Session - Friday, April 24

The speaker opens by acknowledging the Nasdaq reaching all-time highs, up 1.8%, attributed to news that Iran is sending a delegation to Istanbul, potentially signaling an end to the ongoing conflict. The current situation involves Iran being "hours, maybe a little bit more than hours, maybe a couple of days away from having to close off oil wells," which could have significant, potentially irreversible, repercussions. The blockade strategy is highlighted as a "brilliant strategy," reminiscent of its effectiveness in Venezuela. The discussion then shifts to market observations, noting a "fun Friday" with tech stocks performing strongly. Intel, in particular, is "absolutely screaming up," finally surpassing its 2020 all-time high after a 25-year wait for some investors. The speaker reflects on a recent decision to sell CHPY, an ETF that had been consistently rising for 18 days and pays a 40% annual dividend. The concern was around "NAV erosion," a factor dependent on the ETF's structure. Despite the sale, CHPY was up 4% on the day, leading to the self-assessment of a "bad call." The mention of "Chat GBT 5.5" is noted as interesting, with the speaker expressing surprise at being out of the loop regarding its release. A comparison between Solana and Ethereum follows, with Ethereum currently "wrecking house for Solana." The broader trend in the crypto market suggests that "most capital and speculation is going towards where it believes the greatest effect could be had and made," which currently points to AI. This is evident even in Bitcoin miners transitioning to AI compute. The question is posed whether Solana can truly impact the world and in what way. It's noted that Solana is currently "long" and, according to research, when Solana is the first asset to go long, it tends to lead to "big moves." The conversation then touches on a "massive structural shift" underway, with Bitcoin breaking out and currently retesting. Ethereum is showing a similar pattern. A significant breakout for Bitcoin would involve it surpassing its previous cycle ceiling high. The speaker recalls earlier discussions about Bitcoin reaching 13 ounces of gold, which was seen as a retest of the bear market low, typically preceding a bull market. The next confirmation for this is "in play." The speaker briefly mentions AI tools, praising "Claude" as "great" for certain tasks, contrasting it with "Chat GBT" for its utility in everyday scenarios like meal planning. The leadership of tech stocks is seen as aligned with expectations at this point in the Fed cycle, especially with balance sheet expansion. However, a "massive unknown" remains: the energy shock from the Strait of Hormuz situation. Its resolution could happen "this weekend" or not for "six more months," with unknown ramifications for oil prices and "knockoff effects" like a third of US farmers lacking necessary fertilizer, impacting food prices. The current tech leadership despite these "tremendous unknowns" is described as "unbelievable." The speaker emphasizes the importance of providing tools at CTM to "thrive no matter the circumstances," expressing intense focus on building the platform into a "massive springboard entering into a new era." A regret is voiced about not having the capacity to present on altcoins, which are seen as a "massive opportunity." The speaker recalls advising weeks prior to consider taking a speculative position in altcoins, acknowledging the potential for a "massive, massive downleg" of 40-50%, which should be viewed as an opportunity to add to the position. The difficulty in finding the correct ticker for the altcoin market cap is mentioned, and the speaker attributes the lack of "compute" for certain AI functionalities to Claude, although acknowledging the underlying capability exists. The need for energy to run these systems is highlighted, linking back to the decision to sell CHPY. The speaker believes that the recent market move might be "overdone" and expects a "nice bounce." The belief that "every alt has its day" is rooted in liquidity conditions, with the Fed not raising rates and the next likely move being rate cuts, which should improve liquidity. The resilience of the US economy is noted, but potential derailments include a forced Fed tightening/hike or elevated energy prices. In such scenarios, "very little use case for the majority of alts" would lead to them "sink[ing] like ships." Conversely, abundant liquidity would fuel speculation and spikes, similar to meme stocks. On the question of a breakout in the altcoin market, the speaker believes it's "very close." BNB is identified as a potential beneficiary of increased altcoin speculation and trading, likely seeing a new all-time high. The speaker expresses skepticism about XRP replacing the banking system and the long-term value of other tokens like Hyperliquid's. Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to remain "giants" and "fantastic trading vehicles." The possibility of Solana reaching all-time highs and a return of a "hype phase" are considered. The speaker then touches on X's (formerly Twitter) financial offerings, specifically a high APR for cash, questioning how Elon Musk plans to sustain such yields. The impact of this on broader crypto speculation is doubted, as Bitcoin has become "normal" for "normies," and retail investors are becoming "irrelevant" in the "early majority phase." Early adopters, especially those who invested in altcoins over Bitcoin, are seen as being "left behind," and a further continuation of this trend would cement big money's dominance, with their interest in Bitcoin potentially differing from early enthusiasts. The current "hype" is firmly in AI, which is "changing the world at a tremendous pace," driving significant speculation. While a return of widespread speculation in the cryptoverse isn't immediately anticipated, the speaker suggests it's a time to "be looking" for altcoin opportunities, especially when the economy "starts running hot again," indicated by PMIs of 55-56. For long-term positions, projects like "Tau" (decentralized compute) are mentioned as worth exploring, despite a recent 35% pullback. The speaker cautions against irresponsible speculation, advocating for a "responsible degen" approach, exemplified by CTM not trading leverage. If leverage were used, a small amount (25%) on a drawdown is suggested as a "mechanical edge." The speaker expresses a desire to see Bitcoin "play catch up" and "break out with momentum." A hypothetical scenario involving Iran charging for passage through the Strait of Hormuz in crypto or yuan is discussed. The speaker questions why, if they were to accept USDT (Tether), it wouldn't be encouraged, given its potential to "put a bid into your treasuries." However, Tether's "massive history of freezing funds" is highlighted as a reason for its continued existence, suggesting it plays by "the cartel, for the government's" rules, unlike the decentralized and permissionless nature of Bitcoin. The speaker hopes to see Bitcoin break out against gold and surpass resistance levels. The potential for a "sell the news event" is considered if a permanent peace deal is reached regarding the Iran situation, questioning whether the euphoric market move would continue or if problems would emerge post-war. The speaker expresses a desire to see a 30,000 Nasdaq. The use of Monero by Iran is questioned, and the speaker humorously suggests they might consult North Korea on such matters. The speaker concludes by reiterating the momentum at CTM and the aim to usher in a "new era" in the coming weeks and months, wishing everyone a good day and weekend.