PAKISTAN - AFGHANISTAN : CETTE AUTRE GUERRE DONT PRESQUE PERSONNE NE PARLE

While global attention has been fixated on the escalating tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States, a significant and deadly conflict has erupted elsewhere: between Afghanistan and Pakistan. This conflict, which saw a major escalation in late February, has largely been overshadowed by Middle Eastern headlines, yet it represents a volatile shift in regional dynamics that threatens to destabilize South Asia further. The most recent surge in violence began on February 22, when Islamabad launched selective airstrikes against seven camps and refuges belonging to the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban. These strikes, initially targeting rural areas, resulted in at least 80 deaths. While the Pakistani government claimed to be targeting terrorists, local reports and testimonies from affected villages painted a grimmer picture of civilian devastation, with entire families being wiped out in the bombings. In retaliation, the Afghan Taliban launched a ground offensive on February 26 against Pakistani border posts. This prompted Pakistan to declare "open war," escalating to strikes on major Afghan cities, including Kabul. Specifically, Pakistani forces targeted military installations such as the Pol-e-Charkhi base, which housed an armored brigade of the Afghan National Army. Between late February and early March, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan recorded dozens of civilian deaths and over a hundred injuries resulting from these clashes. To understand why these two neighbors—who share a complex history—are now at war, one must look at the shifting relationship between Islamabad and the Taliban. For years, the Pakistani security apparatus supported and instrumentalized the Taliban, viewing them as a strategic lever to maintain influence in Afghanistan. However, this relationship soured following the Taliban's return to power in Kabul in 2021. The primary point of contention is the TTP. This militant group, which is linked to Al-Qaeda, seeks to overthrow the Pakistani state and has significantly ramped up its operations since its "cousins," the Afghan Taliban, took control of Kabul. Statistics show a staggering increase in TTP activity: terror attacks in Pakistan rose from 139 at the time of the Taliban's return to 1,313 just four years later. By 2024, Pakistan was ranked as the second most terrorism-affected country in the world, trailing only Burkina Faso. Islamabad accuses the Kabul government of providing a safe haven for the TTP, a claim the Taliban denies, despite the ideological and ethnic ties between the groups. The conflict is also deeply rooted in colonial history and geography. The two nations share a 2,400-kilometer border known as the Durand Line, established in 1893 by the British Empire. This line effectively split the Pashtun people—who share a common language and culture—between two different states. Today, there are approximately 13 million Pashtuns in Afghanistan and 43 million in Pakistan. While Pakistan recognizes the Durand Line as its official border, successive Afghan governments, including the current Taliban regime, have contested its legitimacy. The Taliban have explicitly stated that the Durand Line remains an "unresolved issue" and have expressed a desire to reclaim "usurped" lands where Pashtun populations reside. This territorial dispute makes the border region nearly impossible to control and serves as a perennial flashpoint for nationalist sentiment on both sides. Beyond the immediate bilateral friction, the conflict is being fueled by broader regional geopolitics. India, Pakistan’s long-standing rival, has seized the opportunity to weaken Islamabad by warming its relations with the Taliban. New Delhi has moved to reopen its embassy in Kabul, prioritizing geostrategy over concerns regarding the Taliban’s human rights record. This leaves Pakistan feeling squeezed on both its eastern border with India and its western border with Afghanistan. Additionally, other regional powers like China, which has economic interests in both countries, have expressed deep concern and called for an immediate ceasefire. Iran has also offered to mediate, fearing that instability could embolden separatist movements, such as the Baluchis, who live across the borders of Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The humanitarian and economic consequences of this war are severe. Afghanistan, already reeling from decades of conflict and a devastating earthquake last year, faces a catastrophic situation. Families who had recently sought safety in displacement camps near the border are being forced to flee again due to the bombings, exposing children to increased risks of malnutrition and disease. On the other side, while Pakistan possesses a much stronger military and nuclear weapons, its economy is incredibly fragile. The broader regional instability, including potential disruptions to trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran-Israel conflict, threatens to push Pakistan’s economy to the breaking point. Ultimately, the war between Afghanistan and Pakistan is not just a temporary flare-up but a manifestation of deep-seated "fracture lines." Unless the two nations can find a way to address the status of the Durand Line and the movement of militant groups across their shared border, the region risks falling into a prolonged cycle of guerrilla warfare and economic collapse. Despite the military superiority of Pakistan, history suggests that engaging in a long-term conflict with battle-hardened Afghan forces is a dangerous path that could lead to further regional fragmentation.