BRIEFING Mensuel : MAJ importante, Psychologie et Risques

The current market volatility is the manifestation of a systemic event that has been brewing for months. While many observers are only now reacting to the headlines, the speaker emphasizes that his strategy—rooted in technical signals and risk management—has been preparing for this disruption for a long time. The core message is that the era of ignoring real-world physical constraints is ending, and the financial markets are about to face a harsh reality check. The primary catalyst for this shift is the energy sector, specifically the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The speaker argues that the rise in oil prices is not a temporary spike but a systemic move. Monthly technical indicators suggest that the consequences of this disruption will last between two and three years. This is a fundamental repricing of the world’s most essential commodity. He observes a significant shift in the ratio between the price of gold and the price of oil. Gold has functioned as a financial refuge, largely traded on paper, but it has become excessively expensive compared to the physical necessity of energy. As the "elastic" of this mispricing snaps, capital will likely migrate from "paper gold" into tangible energy assets. He references his book, "The Crisis of Value," to reiterate that the next major crisis will originate in the real world of physical resources rather than the purely financial sphere. A major theme of the discussion is the psychological state of the American market, which the speaker characterizes as moving from "decadence" to "total arrogance." While the rest of the world’s stock exchanges are beginning to price in significant risks, US markets remain in a state of deep denial. American traders often dismiss geopolitical conflicts as short-term issues that will primarily affect Europe. The speaker views this as a dangerous delusion. He notes that the US is currently in the "denial" phase of a classic bubble cycle that began during the Trump administration, which politicized market performance and drew in a massive wave of retail participants. Following denial, the next stage is the "Bull Trap"—a scenario where the market suffers an initial drop, followed by a low-volume speculative bounce that lures retail investors back in before a final, violent liquidation. The speaker also highlights the role of market manipulation in the oil sector. For two years, American market makers have suppressed oil prices by flooding the market with short positions. However, with the physical closure of the Strait of Hormuz, these players are now facing a "squeeze" as they are forced to close their positions in a market with no sellers. This technical pressure, combined with the loss of 20% of global oil circulation, creates a "perfect storm" for energy prices. He warns that the ongoing conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the US will not be a traditional military confrontation but a "dirty war" of sabotage and terrorism targeting oil infrastructure. Such damage cannot be repaired quickly, leading to months of supply instability. The macroeconomic outlook is grim, defined by the onset of "stagflation." The speaker explains that economic growth is essentially indirect energy expenditure; therefore, a scarcity in energy supply makes a recession inevitable. Furthermore, the resulting inflation is structural and rooted in the physical world, meaning it cannot be solved by central bank interest rate hikes. The speaker expects a long-term shift in perception where necessities like commodities and agriculture will be prioritized over speculative technologies like Artificial Intelligence. While AI may be the future in a decade, it is an expensive luxury that the economy may not be able to afford during a two-year energy crisis. In terms of specific market targets, the speaker is increasingly pessimistic about US equities. He anticipates that the "negative emotions" currently entering the market will amplify price drops. He believes the S&P 500 will blow through traditional support levels rather than resting on them. He has adjusted his long-term targets downward, suggesting that the index could fall below 3,500 to reach a point of true capitulation and despair. His strategy involves skipping initial profit-taking on the first signs of weakness, choosing instead to use any speculative bounces as opportunities to increase his short positions. The speaker also addresses the cryptocurrency market, specifically Ethereum. He challenges the prevailing narrative that crypto is strictly correlated with US tech stocks. While a positive correlation has existed for the past two years, he argues this is a temporary state and not a causal relationship. He distinguishes between speculative tokens with no utility and projects like Ethereum that are entering a phase of real adoption. He suggests that while a US market crash might cause short-term liquidation pressure on crypto, the "Smart Money" will eventually recognize the value of independent, adopting networks. Therefore, a decline in Wall Street does not necessarily mean the end for high-utility crypto projects. Ultimately, the speaker has moved his entire portfolio into a defensive posture. He is focusing on tangibles—energy, commodities, and agriculture—while moving away from the "AI bubble." He concludes that the "game is over" for the current era of speculative excess. The transition from a financialized economy to one based on physical reality will be painful for those caught in denial, particularly retail investors who have been conditioned to "buy the dip" regardless of the underlying fundamental shifts. The upcoming months and years will be defined by this transition into a stagflationary environment where the arrogance of the past few years will be replaced by a struggle for essential resources.