
ATTENTION BITCOIN ! TRUMP MET LA PRESSION.. ๐จ
Audio Summary
AI Summary
Bitcoin continues to show divergence against the Nasdaq, with interesting signals across global markets. Today's focus is on whether Bitcoin might retrace further and what potential targets exist.
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Regarding Bitcoin (BTC), it remains divergent from the Nasdaq. Since May 6th, when Bitcoin's peak formed, the Nasdaq has risen while Bitcoin has underperformed. This divergence is visible on an indicator, showing a continuous divergence after an initial phase of underperformance. Bitcoin appears to have found a resistance point after filling its daily gap, although the entire daily gap up to $85,300 is not yet filled. The market is consolidating, which is considered normal price action.
The price action is also filling the daily and weekly Fair Value Gaps (FVG), explaining the current resistance. The New Week Open gap (CME gap) is a key support level to watch. If this gap breaks, a deeper retracement is probable, targeting Friday's low. Theoretically, the next target would be the unchased consolidation zone, accumulating stops below previous lows, around the $77,900 to $76,500 range. This daily FVG zone is considered an interesting area for a bullish continuation. The speaker believes the market is not at its peak and will eventually surpass $84,000-$85,000, filling the CME gap within the second quarter. However, a dip into the FVG zone is possible before this continuation. This potential dip is becoming more likely due to the Nasdaq divergence.
The speaker reiterates that this zone, which also sweeps last week's low, is the most interesting for a bullish continuation. The plan involves clearing previous lows, entering the FVG reload zone, and then continuing upwards.
For the Nasdaq, a revisit of Friday's impulse is expected. If the daily FVG is retested, a bearish move on BTC is likely. BTC's potential downside would involve clearing Friday's stops and possibly last week's low, as the weekly gap remains partially open. This aligns with the previously mentioned daily FVG zone. Despite potential retracements, the overall market outlook remains bullish, viewing dips as opportunities.
Globally, the market is not heavily stressed by the fragile ceasefire in Iran, as indicated by the VIX. Oil's price action is being monitored; a break of its FVG could signal a revisit to highs. If this occurs and the market shows stress, it could present the expected dips in Bitcoin and US indices. However, the speaker remains bullish on indices like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500, expecting them to reach new all-time highs.
Ethereum (ETH) has filled its FVG and is respecting the daily FVG. If Bitcoin targets the indicated zone, Ethereum would likely sweep at least last week's low, around $2,260, or the $2,220 low. This is seen as a re-accumulation phase to fill a larger gap, potentially forming a bull flag pattern for further upside this quarter.
On-chain metrics show neutral to negative funding rates for Bitcoin, which is encouraging and suggests potential for spot demand. However, ETF outflows and slowing stablecoin issuance indicate a reduction in demand, potentially justifying Bitcoin's slowdown and a possible retracement to the indicated FVG zones. Despite this, the overall dynamic remains bullish.
There's a possibility that Bitcoin might not retrace to the FVG, instead clearing Monday's low for continuation, trapping sellers, and then moving higher. This would occur if the market doesn't visit the lower FVG and instead fills the previous FVG. The reaction to Monday's low is therefore a key observation. If this level breaks, the next FVG zone will be a significant area for bullish continuation.