ALERTE BITCOIN ! LA VOLATILITÉ VA EXPLOSER !! 🚀

The future market is opening, with Bitcoin reaching $80,000 and currently within the CME gap. This analysis will cover Bitcoin, oil, and the VIX, examining market stress levels. Access to COT reports and VIP Discord channels are available for free by signing up on Bybit via a partner link and being active on the platform. Algorithmic tools will also be released soon. For Bitcoin, the trend remains bullish, and the futures market has reopened. A small gap was filled, bringing Bitcoin to the $80,000 level. The primary objective for this second quarter is to fill the CME gap, which extends up to around $84,600. While dips are possible, especially given the intact lows from Saturday and Sunday with a significant fair value gap, indicating a potential area for retesting or a deleveraging event. A recovery of stops below $74,800, the low of the past week, is not impossible for liquidity before continuing higher. The current focus is on working within the daily fair value gap, suggesting consolidation around the $80,000 mark. A rejection could lead to filling the fair value gap before resuming an upward trajectory, aligning with the overall bullish quarter. The current dynamic is clearly bullish, not a bearish liquidity grab. Although a breaker block has formed, signaling a bullish dynamic, whether this is the definitive bottom is debatable; a revisit below these lows in coming months is a personal view, but the second quarter is factually bullish. The market has been speculating on filling fair value gaps, including the CME gap at $84,000-$85,000, and potentially a vectorial fair value gap between $84,700 and $88,700, which has a high probability of being filled this quarter. Volatility is currently at a standstill, near historically low levels, suggesting a revival is imminent. However, divergences are appearing, with less money entering the market, particularly stablecoins, which haven't been printed significantly since April 25th. This indicates a potential shakeout of derivative products. Key objectives for a potential cleanup include the daily fair value gap or the previous week's low at $74,800. While no immediate signals suggest this cleanup, it's a possibility to keep in mind, as rising without interest can be dangerous. ETF interest remains strong, with a significant inflow of $629 million on Friday, supporting spot prices. However, this primarily benefits Bitcoin and Ethereum, not altcoins, which lack dedicated ETFs. Consequently, altcoins are underperforming Bitcoin, and ETH/BTC is expected to remain in a bearish trend this quarter, meaning Ethereum will likely follow Bitcoin but underperform it. Globally, oil is not stressing the market, remaining in a range. The VIX continues to decline, indicating a lack of market stress despite geopolitical risks. Indices are still bullish, with the Dow Jones heading towards its ATH. The continued rise in indices, despite pessimistic sentiment, can be attributed to institutional buying, as revealed by COT reports. These institutions are playing the AI bubble momentum, which is far from bursting. The dollar is also not very strong, likely heading towards its April low. A strong reaction from the dollar in May could impact risk assets, especially gold. Ethereum is lagging Bitcoin, having not yet surpassed its April peak, unlike Bitcoin. However, a liquidity grab has initiated a continuation, making the previous low a protected level. The objective for Ethereum this quarter is to target stops beyond the last three weekly highs, the previous month's high, and two unhunted highs, including the April and February highs, and the monthly fair value gap. The CME futures for Ethereum also point to filling its gap, potentially reaching $2,700 this quarter. The daily fair value gap has held, and an immediate reintegration after a small scare suggests a bullish continuation. While everything appears bullish, dips and retracements are possible, especially with increased open interest in derivatives, indicating potential liquidations. However, these are derivative flushouts, not aggressive spot selling. Spot demand, driven by ETFs and options market buying, is strong, contradicting the narrative of a rally not originating from spot. The spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) is more aggressive than the perpetual CVD, confirming genuine demand. The second quarter is a retracement quarter. Historically, previous quarters were bearish, so a retracement quarter is not unusual. While a new ATH this quarter is unlikely, filling the CME gap and the plausible fair value gap is expected. The prevailing short sentiment on social media, contrasted with open interest data showing more long positions, presents a mixed picture. If a bearish continuation were to occur, there is ample room within this quarter, which ends July 1st. The pattern at the start of the next quarter will indicate whether it will be a consolidation or bearish period.