Bitcoin Range Repeating.... Will The Outcome Be the Same?

The speaker provides a market update, noting that current trading patterns in a specific range are mirroring a previous range. They highlight a fractal pattern observed, including a weekly SFP, a 12-hour breakdown, a retest of the breaker, another SFP, a relief bounce, and then a sell-off. The speaker has been tracking this progression, which has been consistent with their observations on Twitter and Telegram. They suggest that a relief bounce might be occurring now before a potential further decline. The speaker addresses the sentiment of many who are calling for an "80K" target and a relief bounce. They recall having tweeted about a potential bounce in equities and Bitcoin before the market opened, suggesting a need for relief. They contrast this with the prevailing bearish sentiment on their feed at the time, which was similar to past instances where people were confident about multi-month breakouts. The speaker emphasizes that while they are happy to be bullish on a range breakout, it must hold. They point out that in previous situations, a perceived breakout failed, leading to a "nuke through," and that current sentiment often shifts from bullish at highs to bearish in the lower part of the range. While acknowledging the possibility of a bounce to 80K, the speaker cautions that it's a "possibility" and that "late bears" could be "smacked in the face." They believe that Bitcoin and stocks are due for some sort of cycle low, and also suggest that gold is due for a bounce if it can break a specific trend line. However, the speaker stresses that this bounce would likely precede "the next leg down." Regarding Bitcoin, they admit uncertainty about how high any bounce might go, stating they are playing "level to level" and not taking many trades unless they are "super obvious." Their primary focus is on preserving capital, as they anticipate being able to buy Bitcoin cheaper later in the year. The speaker notes that equities could also see a bounce if they break a downtrend line and reclaim an old low. They observe that people are becoming bearish "a little late to the game," which could precede a bounce. However, they question whether the current Bitcoin movement is "it" or if it has the potential to break the observed fractal pattern, emphasizing that similar appearances don't guarantee similar outcomes. Overall, the speaker maintains a bearish long-term outlook, believing that the market is heading lower and that the current level is not the bottom, with a potential bottom forming later in the year, possibly in Q4. They outline conditions for a potential move to 80K, such as holding the mid-range and reclaiming the range high, but state that until then, the market is "bearish until proven otherwise." On a low time frame, the speaker notes that the market is in the lower part of the range, which typically presents opportunities for bullish positions. They are developing an educational series that will cover their trading system, including concepts like "premium and discount," where being a bull in the lower part of the range (a discount) is generally more probable for a successful long trade. They identify a potential long entry for Bitcoin based on a 12-hour sweep, with a stop loss and a target at the range high or downtrending liquidity. However, the speaker also presents a counterargument: the trend is down, and Monday's high was just run, suggesting a potential move back to Monday's low or even lower. This conflicting data leads the speaker to express a lack of strong conviction in either direction, opting to "sit and wait" rather than forcing a trade. They want to see what equities do, believing a relief rally in equities could allow Bitcoin to reach 80K before ultimately going lower. The speaker highlights past "obvious" trades they took, but stresses that current conditions lack such clear signals, leading them to anticipate fewer trades. They express concern about others on social media who gained wealth in the bull run and are now acting as experts, calling bottoms on every dip without understanding the underlying macro and geopolitical factors. The speaker emphasizes their own honesty about not being an expert and prioritizing risk management and probabilistic thinking. They warn against overconfidence and underestimating how much longer the market could decline, especially with potential geopolitical events. The speaker advises listeners to do their own research and to preserve capital, stating that the bottom will be "obvious" when it arrives, and there will still be opportunities to profit even if the absolute bottom is missed. They advocate for waiting for "easy" trading conditions rather than trying to trade a downtrend without experience. The speaker notes that many assets, including crypto and equities, have largely been moving sideways for months, despite intense commentary on social media. They point to oil, which, despite recent upward grinding, has also been in a range for March. They mention other concerning market indicators, such as stocks looking "sketchy" and the Yen carry trade pushing against critical resistance, along with widening credit spreads and potential "World War II potential stuff" in the Middle East. Given these complexities, the speaker concludes that holding cash and waiting for clarity is a smart position. They reiterate their intention to wait for "very clean" opportunities and to buy Bitcoin spot when it becomes cheaper, expecting any rally towards 80K to be a shorting opportunity. The speaker ends by promoting their website and upcoming educational content.