USA - IRAN : CHUTE MASSIVE du PÉTROLE ! EXPLOSION de la BOURSE !

A ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran has led to a significant rebound in risky assets and a notable fall in oil and the dollar. This development, still a 14-day ceasefire with potential for a final agreement, including talks of reopening dormitories, was not fully priced into the market, explaining the substantial upward movement. The market had not anticipated such a strong and advantageous short-term agreement. The current flow is bullish, particularly for indices. On the daily flow for indices, the order block has marked the bottom, which is seen as interesting. The fair value gaps have been respected, and previous lows are being taken higher, indicating an upward flow. The movement remains bullish. Examining weekly charts, the focus is on revisiting accumulated weekly peaks. Specifically, the target for the US indices is 25464 points, with an expectation to reach 25467 points. This level is considered a clear target, suggesting that US indices still have upward momentum. On a monthly basis, the last fair value gap has been repriced, forming the current bottom. The market's future direction is subject to geopolitics. If a final agreement is reached within 14 days, the recent bottom could be confirmed, similar to the market reaction to Trump's tariffs, potentially leading to a continued upward dynamic in what is fundamentally a bull market. The idea is a continuation of the upward trend unless proven otherwise. However, if the agreement is not finalized, it could lead to a descending peak and a re-attack towards lower levels, resulting in much larger retracements. The market is currently in a speculative phase regarding the agreement's outcome. Lack of an agreement would likely lead to a continuation of the downward trend in oil, potentially returning towards $70. This could be beneficial in lowering interest rates again, especially with inflation figures due for publication. The PCE figures tomorrow and the impact of high oil prices on inflation will be key. Any delay in rate cuts due to these factors is theoretically already accounted for. Regarding the dollar, profit-taking on long positions was observed, indicating that the market had already factored in a less extreme scenario for macroeconomics. A break above certain levels would have signaled an escalating conflict and oil prices exceeding $150, which is not the current situation. The dollar index appears to have marked a top, which is favorable for risky assets. The objective for the dollar is to avoid a sideways movement, with the 25467 level on the indices expected to be reached quickly before stabilization. The market is reacting well to daily lows, forming new order blocks and a changing flow, which was technically clean yesterday. For the SP500, the observed level is 6961 points. All fair value gaps are being passed, with no significant area of interest before the relative equal high of 6903 points. The main idea is a repricing of the peak. On a monthly schedule, this corresponds to the previous monster high, making it a clear target during current negotiations. It wouldn't be surprising to see these levels retrieved. The March peak on the US indices at 25467 points and the SP500 at 6961 points (weekly high for March) are considered targets for the coming days. These levels are expected to be triggered, with the goal remaining the March summit. The order block and fair value gap dynamics support an upward flow for indices up to these blue line targets. The potential ceasefire agreement is triggering a retracement of the dollar. The gap will likely close. A breaker block could form, confirming a top and leading to a repricing of the fair value gap and the breaker zone that initiated the impulse. This would be a coherent retest area, suggesting a return to the initial impulse and conflict levels. The dollar is expected to continue deflating. For Euro/USD, the opposite is expected, with a re-tag of impulses and potentially the March summit at 11.53. The March low on the dollar index is also a potential target, within the breaker. The immediate balance and other factors will also be considered. The March low is seen as a target to clear the bullish flow of March, expected in the next few days, depending on the agreement's finalization. Regarding oil, key lower levels of March, around $68, are important. The question is whether oil can re-enter the range, as staying outside creates inflationary pressure. Breaking fair value gap zones could be positive for a revisit of lows, potentially below $84 during the next two weeks, pending conflict resolution. For gold, after respecting the upward fair value gap, the expectation is to continue reworking previous fair value gaps. The question is whether a descending peak will form. Gold is seen as mature enough to rework the next fair value gap, indicating a bullish push. The March peak had already triggered the February peak. The short reloading zone, corresponding to fair value gap zones, will be closely observed as an interesting price zone to reassess whether gold is heading towards upward peaks, a revisit of March peaks, or even new all-time highs. Extreme caution is advised at these price levels. In summary, the outlook is positive for gold and American indices, while the dollar and oil are expected to be bearish, following the global flow. The objectives are the March peak on indices, lower March peaks on the dollar index and Euro/dollar, and OTE zones and last fair value gaps for gold.