NFA Live! Bitcoin in 2026

The discussion begins with an examination of South Africa's proposed crackdown on cryptocurrency. This proposal includes empowering officials to confiscate hardware devices and private keys from individuals attempting to leave the country, with any seized crypto being sold at market rate. Rob notes that while this is concerning, it's not entirely surprising given South Africa's historically weak currency, the Rand, which has significantly depreciated against the dollar. He posits that such measures aim to prevent capital flight and maintain control over wealth preservation, especially as stablecoins pegged to the dollar can act as a store of value in such an environment. Rob also touches upon the US administration's efforts to globalize stablecoins and Bitcoin, lamenting that past administrations have mishandled opportunities, even referencing a "meme coin" incident that he believes enriched individuals involved. He humorously suggests that losing hardware wallets is a common occurrence due to "boating accidents." Ben, on the other hand, expresses less immediate concern about this specific South African proposal, drawing a parallel to the US government's confiscation of gold in 1933 under Roosevelt to stimulate the economy. However, he believes the crypto situation is different because the global economy is not operating on a Bitcoin standard, thus reducing the necessity for widespread confiscation. He doesn't rule out the possibility of other countries attempting similar measures, but it's not his primary worry. Guy highlights that this proposal is partly influenced by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an international organization focused on combating money laundering and terrorist financing. South Africa was recently removed from the FATF's gray list, and this crypto crackdown might be a condition for that delisting. The FATF's involvement raises concerns about the potential for such regulations to spread internationally. Guy also laments how anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing regulations, while noble in principle, often create undue burdens for ordinary citizens, citing an instance where his brother-in-law's house deposit transaction was delayed due to bank scrutiny, nearly costing him the property. Rob interjects that cash remains the preferred method for illicit activities, making it the "cartel's favorite" and "terrorists' favorite," and that the dollar still reigns supreme. The conversation then shifts to Jerome Powell's final FOMC meeting as Fed Chair, with Kevin Walsh set to replace him. The market sentiment is that rate cuts are becoming increasingly unlikely. Ben reflects on Powell's tenure, noting the absence of rate cuts and the market's expectation of no cuts even in 2026. He explains that geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are driving up energy prices, which in turn fuels inflation, preventing the Fed from cutting rates despite underlying weaknesses in the labor market, such as stagnant job creation, declining quits, and fewer job openings. Ben finds the legal attacks on the Federal Reserve for not lowering rates concerning. He argues that under Biden, Powell raised rates significantly, and while they have since been lowered, the current geopolitical situation and rising energy prices are hindering further cuts. Ben draws a parallel to Gary Gensler's departure from the SEC, suggesting that while Gensler had flaws, his exit allowed for a proliferation of meme coins and influencer-driven crypto projects, potentially to the detriment of the market, as Bitcoin's price has declined since then. He expresses concern that the Fed might become subservient to the executive branch, leading to a loss of trust in the institution. He worries that politicians might demand money printing and low rates, creating inflation but benefiting themselves by passing the problem to the next administration. Ben believes this period could be a turning point, similar to looking back at early 2025 and realizing the crypto market only worsened thereafter due to misallocation of capital into speculative assets. He concludes that despite Powell not being perfect, the markets might have been better off under his leadership, and the Fed's efforts to engineer a soft landing are at risk with a new leadership potentially causing a hard landing. Rob agrees that Powell has done a "pretty good job" considering the circumstances, having navigated the economy through challenging times without a major recession or depression, and also dealing with an inquiry from the Department of Justice. He then pivots to the current sentiment surrounding crypto, referencing a post suggesting crypto is the most "snoozed" or "muted" topic on X (formerly Twitter), indicating that crypto holders are among the most disliked individuals. He recalls the negative reaction to the Coinbase commercial during the Super Bowl. Rob sees these as opportune moments for the market, suggesting that "all the altcoins and all the trash that needs to be swept away" will be purged. He notes that search interest for "crypto" is higher than for "Bitcoin" on Google, suggesting that for the average person, the distinction is blurred, and the general sentiment is negative. He reiterates his strategy of buying Bitcoin every Monday. Guy shares an anecdote about a survey where crypto was found to be a least attractive trait in a potential male partner, highlighting the negative perception. Ben expresses his weariness with the constant drama and "shilling" in the crypto industry, wishing for the industry to focus on its core strengths rather than self-enrichment. He observes that current crypto conferences prioritize treasury companies and politicians over technological innovation. He believes the market has stagnated for two years because it was "looted," and that complaints about changes often come from those engaged in fraud and scams, who can no longer exploit the system. He suggests that those complaining are likely individuals who sought to "swindle their audience." Guy humorously points out that following Ben on X is a "gold mine" for finding upset individuals. Rob quips about being a "gold bug" now, explaining his preference for a "gold mine" analogy. Guy wonders if Twitter's (X) snooze function is a risky move, as users might choose to snooze the entire app. He shares a story about an account being hacked, with the owner finding the period of being hacked "quite nice" because someone else was posting for them. The discussion then moves to the experience of building businesses in the crypto space. Rob shares his extensive entrepreneurial background, starting in 1999 with online education platforms, sports facilities, real estate, and now digital assets. He emphasizes that small businesses provide purpose and a legacy. His key takeaway is the imperative to embrace technology to improve efficiency and effectiveness. He recounts sending DVDs for his nursing education platform before realizing the power of uploading videos online, cutting costs and streamlining operations. He also highlights the early use of Facebook for marketing his sports facility. Rob stresses the importance of social media and, more critically, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and AI agents. He uses the example of his animal shelter project in Puerto Rico, where AI agents are used to write funding strategies and outreach to businesses. He also mentions AI's role in managing spam emails and simplifying financial record-keeping for his CPA. Ben's primary lesson from business building is that "you can't please everyone, you have haters, you're probably doing something right." He emphasizes the importance of pivoting. While he once had a more optimistic view of altcoins, he has since shifted his stance, recognizing that they are not long-term investments. He acknowledges the criticism he receives for this, but maintains that he is providing people with what they "need to hear" rather than what they "want to hear." He notes that altcoins are currently at lower valuations against gold and Bitcoin than they have been in five years. Ben believes that while pivoting can be difficult, it's crucial to stay relevant and avoid being "late to the trend." He argues that holding altcoins for the past five years has been a difficult position, with many potentially heading to zero. He reiterates that embracing technology, or in this case, recognizing the lack of significant technological advancement in the altcoin market, is vital. He points out that the everyday use case for crypto is largely limited to gambling or prediction markets, lacking a "killer use case" that people can't live without. He links this to crypto being a muted topic on X. Ben is optimistic about long-term potential but believes the current phase of market stagnation and the elimination of "crap" is necessary for people to be motivated to build truly useful applications. Guy reflects on starting his business, Coin Bureau, for fun and how it "snowballed" into a significant undertaking with responsibilities. He recalls his early videos on a couch, contrasting them with the current scale of the channel. He mentions Ben's trajectory towards one million subscribers, anticipating it will take him four to five months unless significant market volatility occurs. Guy shares a lesson learned with his co-founder, Nick, about the importance of hiring specialists. Nick initially edited videos but was persuaded to hand over that task to a professional editor to allow him to focus on other areas. This experience taught them that scaling requires delegating jobs and trusting specialists. Rob agrees, acknowledging the difficulty of relinquishing control and power, but finds AI agents to be a helpful tool in this regard. He emphasizes that running a business is stressful but rewarding for the right individuals. He highlights the importance of hiring the right people and mentions that their head of research, Dan, who has worked with them for six years, is leaving. He thanks Dan for his contributions, noting that hiring him was a significant step that propelled the company forward. The conversation concludes with Guy thanking Rob and Ben for their insights. He mentions that he may not be present next week due to the impending arrival of his baby, suggesting that one of his Coin Bureau colleagues might host the next episode, or they may skip the week altogether. Ben also anticipates the arrival of his baby. They confirm that there will be no NFA (Not Financial Advice) live stream next week but hope to return the week after. They wish Ben well with the new arrival.