Rebond en cours sur le marché crypto ?! - Analyse crypto 📈

This market analysis, conducted on Tuesday, April 7th, post-Easter weekend, focuses on the cryptocurrency market. The presenter begins by examining the Total Crypto Market Cap (excluding stablecoins) on a weekly chart to identify long-term trends, aiming to avoid bias from short-term price fluctuations. The analysis highlights that the crypto market has been in a bear market since October 2025, with a current decline of approximately 50%. The question remains whether this decline is over or if further drops are imminent. The current situation is characterized by consolidation since late February, forming an erratic range influenced by traditional markets and macroeconomic factors. This pattern is compared to a previous consolidation in late 2025 following an initial crash. A key observation is the formation of a bearish flag or ascending wedge pattern, indicative of a trend reversal. This pattern involves an initial downtrend, followed by an uptrend with decreasing volatility, a breakout, and then a second, larger downtrend. The magnitude of the two downtrend legs is remarkably similar, with the first at -38.58% and the second at -39.61%, suggesting a potential "copy-paste" scenario. The market is currently concerned with rebuilding this pattern. A significant increase in January was followed by consolidation in a wedge pattern with decreasing volatility, except for a brief exuberance that tested resistance around 0.2.4. This zone has been a significant barrier since 2024. A breakout above this resistance is hoped for, which would ideally lead to a sustained upward movement rather than a minor rebound followed by another dip. However, the presenter suggests that a breakout might not happen immediately. Instead, there could be multiple touches of this resistance zone, with volatility decreasing below it before a potential breakout. This could lead to a search for higher targets, possibly 15-20% or more, building on previous consolidations. The current bias is bearish, based on the principle that trends tend to continue until they reverse. Once a reversal occurs, the new trend has a higher probability of continuation. The presenter points to the bullish trend in 2024-2025, where corrections were more likely to lead to further upside. The current situation, however, follows a significant trend reversal. The analysis identifies two very similar patterns: a bullish consolidation, a breakdown, a consolidation below, and a trend line that previously served as support and is now acting as resistance. This is further illustrated with Bitcoin, where a trend line that was once support is now being tested as resistance multiple times. Regarding TotalUS, the RSI is in interesting weekly zones, potentially indicating a long-term bottom, but without confirmation. The presenter acknowledges the possibility of further drops of 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, or even 50%. Historically, bear markets have seen corrections of -70% to -80%. Applying this to Bitcoin, a -70% to -80% correction would place the bottom between $38,000 and $25,000, which could be a frightening prospect and suggests potential for high volatility. However, there's a notable decrease in upward volatility compared to previous bull markets. In the past, bull markets saw gains of 1800-2000% or more, whereas current gains are around 600-700%. This reduction in upward volatility might imply a similar reduction in downward volatility, suggesting that Bitcoin might not reach the $30,000-$35,000 range and could potentially find its bottom around $40,000, or that the current consolidation might actually be a rebound from the all-time high of late 2021. This zone is being tested as a potential support and launchpad for a market recovery, similar to how the 2017 top acted as a consolidation zone for several months. The presenter then moves to altcoins relative to USD, noting they are not showing strong bullish signals and are consolidating downwards, similar to Total ES. Altcoins relative to Bitcoin are performing even worse, with new lows being made. A long consolidation with decreasing volatility is observed, but without a breakout. Specific altcoins are discussed, including AV, which is down 78% from its bull market top, making it difficult for a top-tier altcoin. AAV relative to Bitcoin appears to be at an extreme low, potentially forming a double bottom, but the long-term trend for altcoins relative to Bitcoin remains bearish since 2021. Total 3 (altcoins excluding stablecoins and Bitcoin) also shows a long downtrend since 2021, despite a rebound in 2025. The presenter believes a recovery on altcoins is inevitable but cautions against premature investment, as current prices might only represent a temporary rebound before further declines, potentially lasting until late 2026 or early 2027. This period is described as the most challenging, requiring patience, as many are abandoning the crypto market, viewing AI as the new dominant technology. The presenter suggests that these are often the times when the best market opportunities arise, urging people to "keep the faith." Moving to "blue-chip" cryptos like Ethereum and Solana: Ethereum is not showing strong bullish signs. Against Bitcoin, it appears to be finding support around 3000 SAT, with a potential for a double top or an "M" pattern. A breakout to the upside would be highly desirable, mirroring previous significant rallies. However, the pattern is only validated upon a confirmed breakout. Solana is also experiencing a decline, with new lows against Bitcoin. While there's an existing bullish divergence, it's not sufficient for a position. Solana is testing its 2023 high and is at an extreme bottom against Bitcoin. Against USD, Solana is in an interesting zone, but a strong rebound is not yet evident. Patience is advised, either by accepting potential volatility in a bottoming zone or by waiting for a confirmed breakout. Other interesting altcoins are mentioned: * **Tao:** Consolidating on a support zone around $290-$295 against BTC, with potential to act as support and propel Tao higher. * **Hype:** Has shown an interesting rebound zone around $35-$36, and while not a major bounce yet, it appears to be forming a bottom. * **Doge:** Continues to consolidate. * **FETs:** Showing interesting consolidation above previous tops. * **ZEC:** Also noted as very interesting. In conclusion, the market is in a phase of constructing a bottom, but there's no confirmation yet. Macroeconomic factors remain complicated, making it unsuitable for FOMO buying or chasing price action. The current environment is described as a "machine to receive," and it's better to stay out unless one is an expert in scalping or range trading, as these zones are difficult to navigate profitably.