L'IA explose tout, Où Investir ? J'achète "ces" 10 actions PEA encore

This video provides a graphical analysis of raw materials, indices, and specific stocks, complementing a previous macro-economic overview. The aim is to connect macro trends with technical analysis for timing investment decisions. Starting with oil, the situation in Iran remains volatile. Despite peace attempts, the market is eager to believe in de-escalation. While prices rebounded from $97, they struggle to surpass $105, indicating a rejection of higher prices and a return to a neutral zone. The resistance at $105 is crucial; a sustained break above it, using it as support, would signal a potential for further upward movement, possibly within a descending wedge pattern. This could reflect a market losing optimism due to prolonged geopolitical issues impacting the economy. It's important to contextualize current oil prices. While $100 oil is significant, it's not comparable to $100 oil in 2014 or 2008 due to inflation and reduced oil dependency in modern economies. Over the last 20 years, some countries have seen over 100-150% inflation, meaning $100 today has less purchasing power. Furthermore, the US has shifted from an oil importer to an exporter, altering market dynamics. Therefore, while prices above $80-90 remain bullish, the current scenario suggests a return to neutrality. A move above $105, sustained as support, would signal further escalation; otherwise, a descending wedge pattern suggests a gradual loss of market optimism if geopolitical issues persist. Next, the discussion shifts to US 10-year and 20-year bonds, focusing on the bond market's implications. An upward break in bond yields would suggest market expectations of rate cuts, fostering optimism across various sectors like mining, gold, silver, AI, and growth stocks. Conversely, a strong upward push could signal fears of deflation and recession, indicating that the market recognizes oil's potential to destroy demand. Currently, yields are holding support, without a clear break upward. A downward break, however, could lead to interest rates rising above 4.5% for 20-year or 30-year bonds, implying higher cost of money and inflation. However, even such a move would remain within a large, ongoing figure, suggesting that while there might be short-term volatility, the overall trend isn't immediately clear. The current congestion in bond yields is expected to resolve into a significant movement by late 2026, which could either confirm a return of inflation (second-round effects) or a recession, leading to a flight to safety in bonds. Until then, movements within this broad range are seen as sub-waves, creating volatility but not indicating a major shift. The dollar's movement is also tied to these dynamics. A break above 120 and then 125 would pressure European exporters but push capital out of the US into emerging markets, including Europe, driving sectoral and geographical rotation. Conversely, fear or uncertainty could lead to a flight to US bonds, strengthening the dollar as demand for dollars increases. Similar to bond yields, the dollar is currently in a broad congestion pattern (102 support, 105 resistance), with sub-waves that create volatility but are building towards a major decision within the next year. These major movements, driven by geopolitics and macro changes, are expected in the coming months and years. On the index front, the CAC 40 is in a "soft belly," forming a triangle within a triangle. European markets are more susceptible to Iranian geopolitical issues than the US, which is driven by AI. The CAC 40 is currently caught between an unclosed bullish gap from the start of the week and a bearish gap from today, with intertwined moving averages, indicating neutrality. To sustain an upward trend, the CAC 40 needs to hold the 8000-8080 point zone. A break below this level would make the risk-reward profile less attractive for the index, although individual stocks might still offer opportunities. The market is currently battling the 8130 support level. If US markets fail to rebound and show weakness, the CAC 40 could test 8050-8000 points, signaling increased caution for exposures. Semiconductors are a critical driver of market confidence. Despite massive inflows and strong performance (some stocks doubling in a month), even a 1-2% drop can trigger talk of a "crash." While a 10% correction in the semiconductor index would be healthy and not alter the long-term bullish configuration, a 20% drop (returning to the 400 level) would likely spark widespread "bubble burst" narratives. However, even such a significant correction would only bring it back to a previous breakout level. The market remains highly volatile but tends to buy on support. Whether it's a deep correction or a flat consolidation, the market will likely seek to buy. Technically, a breather is needed, potentially closing some gaps. Gold, like other assets, is currently in a broad range ($4000-$5500, with $1500 range). The resolution of this range will dictate a major movement. Until then, gold can offer interesting trading opportunities within the range, but without a clear directional trend. Its movements are tied to monetary policy and interest rates. Fears of inflation and rising rates could push gold to the lower end of the range, while expectations of rate cuts in a resilient US economy could drive it higher, potentially to the top of the range. Both scenarios are on the table, and market action will determine which plays out. The Nasdaq has shown remarkable strength, moving from 23,000 to 28,000 points, with technically splendid performance. It recently touched the 20840 resistance, saw a small dip, and rebounded to half of the previous day's candle, with futures indicating a retest of this zone. Like semiconductors, the Nasdaq faces the risk of a significant correction and volatility, but corrections are likely to be bought as it remains in an upward trend. A correction could be seen as an opportunity to "catch its breath." Only if a rebound fails to surpass a previous resistance-turned-support (around 28400 points) would a weakness emerge. Even then, the market might opt for a zigzag, stair-step pattern to digest information and build intermediate figures, rather than an immediate bullish or bearish breakout. Moving to specific stocks, the video highlights several opportunities: **MedinCell:** A more speculative biotech stock that has undergone a significant correction and digestion period within an upward trend. A break above €24 could target €28-29, with further upside possible. The recent pullback offers an accumulation or buying opportunity for those who believe in the stock. **Soitec:** Highly speculative, driven by photonic and cable demand for AI data centers. Results are due at the end of the month. The stock has reached target levels of €170-180, potentially pushing to €205-210. Investors who haven't already sold should consider taking profits, as these stocks can experience sharp -20% to -30% corrections, especially after results that might not meet the market's future-oriented expectations. Such corrections often lead to buying opportunities for those who missed the initial rally or sold too early. **Iliad (Ilior):** A calmer stock showing a "cup and handle" pattern. A break of the oblique resistance could accelerate its movement. Intermediate target is €3.00-3.10, with a long-term objective of €4.00. **Claran:** Part of the "grey economy" theme, showing a good congestion pattern under resistance. If it breaks through and pulls back, it could confirm an upward reversal, targeting €5.00-5.20 as long as it stays above €3.90-4.00. **Bastide le Confort Médical:** A smaller cap that has validated a previous scenario and is nearing a breakout, offering a good reversal configuration. **Atos:** Currently in a congestion within a wedge, attempting a breakout. Holding above €35 could lead to a target of €44-45. While it's a potential reversal, it remains in a downtrend, implying higher risk. **NIBE:** An "old unloved" stock that has broken a long-term oblique resistance. Any return to this level should be seen as a buying opportunity, signaling reversals in this industry. **Carl Zeiss:** In the healthcare sector, showing interesting rebounds. The goal is to return to the top of its figure to play an additional rebound towards the oblique resistance. While not yet a long-term reversal, it's building a bottom. **Figma:** Similar to Carl Zeiss, building a rebound with good congestions, potentially breaking higher to €25-26 before consolidating further. **Enphase (solar):** Illustrates the typical long and arduous process of bottom construction. After a rebound attempt and subsequent correction, it's entering a new congestion, potentially validating a reversal scenario. This suggests market rotation, where even if tech corrects, other sectors might see inflows. **TAP (PEA-eligible):** Has built a bottom and pushed higher after results, hitting resistance. If it consolidates to €56-57, it could be a buying opportunity, potentially forming an inverted head and shoulders or rounding bottom. A break above €65 could target €75 and a gap zone. **Chinese consumer stocks:** Showing bottoming patterns and signs of reversal. If they validate a break above $32-34, it could signal renewed growth for many Chinese and discretionary consumer stocks, which could also impact the CAC 40's discretionary consumption sector. However, the video also highlights signs of stress in other sectors. **Jeronimo Martins** (consumer retail) is struggling, potentially due to oil prices, indicating delayed economic impact. Similarly, container shipping companies like **AP Moller** are showing a significant impact, likely from recent results. While not all is lost, especially for year-end, these sectors are clearly putting a "stop" on upward momentum. This confirms that the market isn't blind to economic realities; the illusion of universal strength is primarily driven by tech, semiconductors, and AI. Finally, **Tels** (European sovereignty) continues to slowly advance, hitting oblique resistance. Consolidations are occurring at increasingly higher levels, maintaining a positive outlook. A decisive break could open the way to €4.00-4.40. A break below current levels wouldn't be fatal but would weaken the dynamic, requiring a potential re-entry at €2.50 for a delayed scenario. The video concludes by emphasizing that the presented stock list is not exhaustive and encourages viewers to check the description for a more comprehensive list of favorite PEA and non-PEA stocks. It also recommends watching the previous macro video to link the macro and graphical analyses.