NFA Live! Bitcoin in 2026!

In this episode of NFA Live, hosts Rob, Guy from Coin Bureau, and Ben from Into the Cryptoverse discussed market seasonality, unexpected events, and potential future guests. The first question centered on the classic market adage, "Sell in May and go away." Guy acknowledged that this time of year is approaching but wondered if current market conditions would adhere to old norms. He noted a recent crypto bounce, which he didn't expect to last, attributing it to optimism over a potential Middle East ceasefire. Guy predicted that crypto would likely struggle over the summer, advising listeners to monitor the situation. Ben shared a screen to illustrate seasonality, particularly in midterm years. He compared the current market to previous midterm years like 2018 and 2014. In 2018, there was a rally in April into early May, similar to the current four consecutive green weeks after a low in February and a higher low in April. However, Ben cautioned that seasonality isn't everything; in 2014, the rally lasted until early June. He emphasized the difficulty of timing counter-trend rallies, noting that Bitcoin is currently near 78K after many expected a bounce at 75K earlier in the year. Ben also pointed out that the current market generally tracks the 2019 blueprint, which involved a 50% drop followed by a rally. Examining monthly Bitcoin candles using Heikin-Ashi, he observed that candles typically remain red throughout a bear market, turning green when it ends, with 2014 and 2019 being exceptions with small "fake-outs." Ben's guess is that weakness will return later in the year, likely not until a bit later, possibly after the FOMC meeting or a potential Bank of Japan rate hike. Rob noted that bear markets often play out similarly, with discussions about waiting for various moving averages. He mentioned his personal strategy of dollar-cost averaging every Monday and considering taking profits. The discussion then shifted to unexpected events. Ben expressed surprise that Bitcoin dominance has largely stalled out, trading sideways since August of last year when including stablecoins. He had expected more resolution in its direction. He attributed this partly to the end of quantitative tightening but also noted that high interest rates usually support Bitcoin dominance in bear markets, especially after an alt season, which didn't occur this cycle. Another surprise for Ben was the recent 40% rally in semiconductors. Regarding Bitcoin's rally, he reiterated that counter-trend rallies are common in bear markets, often occurring after late March/early April lows and lasting a few weeks before weakness returns in the summer. Ben also highlighted that social media mentions of crypto ETFs are "almost negligible" compared to the dominance of NFTs and DeFi narratives in 2021, despite the significant ETF flows. Guy echoed Ben's point about ETF mentions, suggesting that many within the crypto space view ETFs as a "tradfi adjunct" or even a "culprit" for the lack of an altcoin season, as they absorbed much of the crypto-allocated capital. He found it surprising that the S&P 500 has been so resilient and hit new highs amid an energy crisis and geopolitical uncertainty, attributing it to the AI narrative. However, Guy was not surprised by further hacks in DeFi and losses to North Korea's weapons program, predicting that the biggest hack of the year might still be coming. He also shared a bizarre news story about a condom shortage potentially solving the fertility crisis, which he saw as an indicator of ongoing supply chain issues, inflation, and disruptions, even if the Middle East situation stabilizes. Guy also mentioned his surprise at seeing the President of the United States posting an image of himself as Jesus Christ. Rob asked Guy about the cost of living in the UK, where Guy has family. Guy confirmed that the UK has been experiencing a cost-of-living crisis for years and is highly exposed to the fallout from the Iran war. He noted that fuel prices have been a long-standing complaint and are likely to rise further. Interestingly, in the UAE, where Guy is currently located, he hasn't noticed significant price increases for food or fuel, even though goods are now being shipped via Saudi Arabia, adding to costs. Finally, the hosts discussed potential guests for the show. Guy suggested Justin Sun due to his involvement in current "shenanigans," and AI leaders Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO) and Demis Hassabis (Google DeepMind CEO). Ben proposed Bob Lucas and Lynn Alden, and humorously added "every single one of my haters on Twitter." Rob's pick was Mark Andre from Andreessen Horowitz, known for his involvement in AI and crypto. Charles Hoskinson was also mentioned as a fascinating guest, especially after his recent video on the quantum threat to Bitcoin. In the Q&A segment, the hosts reiterated that no one definitively knows if the market bottom is in, though historical patterns suggest potential weakness later in the year. Guy expressed skepticism about the Clarity Act passing, noting it's likely off the discussion slate, but agreed that its passage would signal a market bottom. Ben added that if it passed in the next few weeks, he'd be surprised if the market went lower. The discussion concluded with a brief mention of a "golden cross" and its potential timing.