IRAN : USA ÇA CHAUFFE ! RISQUE pour les MARCHÉS ? 🚨

The recent uptick in oil and the dollar suggests that the market may be anticipating a resurgence of conflict. This analysis aims to assess the impact on market dynamics, particularly for indices, and provide an update on gold. Before diving in, a reminder is provided about free access to VIP services and mentorship. To access these, users need to register on Premix BT via a partner link found in the pinned comment. This involves making a minimum deposit of $500, which remains the user's trading capital. After the deposit, clicking "Get my VIP access" and entering an email and Premix BT ID will activate the access. Upon successful completion, a Discord link will appear, granting access to VIP services and automatically sending the mentorship via email. Regarding oil, there's a noted breach of the bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG). This signals a potential for further upward movement. Observing the 12-hour chart, the last FVG zone is highlighted. If this zone is surpassed, the next target would be to retest levels above $100. An oil price exceeding $100 could create market stress. However, the current view is that oil is likely to remain within a range, especially as long as the conflict persists. This range-bound behavior is expected to exert inflationary pressure, influencing future interest rate decisions. Currently, the market is not pricing in any rate hikes, only a pause in rate cuts anticipated in 2026. On the dollar front, it has not made new highs, and there's no immediate reason for renewed stress on indicators like the VIX, which remains in a bearish trend. The dollar is not currently exerting significant pressure. It might retrace to fill a gap, but a substantial bullish move beyond the monthly FVG seems improbable at this juncture. The lack of major stress on indices and the VIX, coupled with oil trading within a range, suggests no immediate problems. However, a resumption and escalation of conflict could lead to oil breaking its range to the upside, increasing inflationary concerns and potentially prompting market pricing of rate hikes. If the market starts pricing in a significant probability of rate hikes, the dollar would likely strengthen, which is not currently the case. The probability of rate hikes is currently very low, with only a small chance for 2026. The situation is far from the levels seen a few weeks prior, when there was a high probability of rate hikes being priced in. Therefore, significant dollar upside is considered unlikely as long as oil does not break its range. The current state of oil and the dollar is described as "top isine" (likely meaning "topping out" or stabilizing) for the dollar, with low probability of new bullish expansion. This explains the lack of stress on US indices. Focusing on the Dow Jones, it has not yet reached its all-time high (ATH). It has recovered a daily FVG and cleared some daily lows, suggesting potential for continued bullish momentum. While a minor pullback is possible, the overall direction for US indices, including the Dow Jones, is considered bullish until the ATH is achieved. The Nasdaq has seen its recent low cleared, which was the last bullish impulse. This could signal a continuation towards a new daily high. Yesterday's price action, despite rumors of potential conflict escalation (specifically regarding Iran), was well-absorbed by the market, with dips being bought. This indicates a market sentiment leaning towards further upside. The Dow Jones's pursuit of its ATH suggests similar potential for the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and other indices. An interesting zone has been identified on the 3-day chart, specifically the last FVG. In confluence with the daily FVG, this zone presents a potential area for a significant bounce if there's any market stress. This area would serve as a good retest zone for swing highs, facilitating further upward movement. However, it's acknowledged that these impulsive moves will eventually need to be addressed. The S&P 500 exhibits a similar setup with a 3-day FVG and a comparable daily zone. It has also cleared some daily lows. The prediction is that the market might revisit this zone, potentially next week. The weekly low, which coincides with a weekly FVG, is also expected to be tested. The combination of the 3-day, daily, and weekly FVG areas is seen as a strong continuation zone for further upside. The delivery on the Dow Jones is also highlighted, with a potential test of the previous week's low next week being a strong continuation signal. Finally, gold is currently retracing and is likely headed towards last week's low. The price action indicates a shift in market structure, moving towards a bearish dynamic. Gold is testing its final hourly FVG zones, and it remains to be seen if this will be enough to mark a low. For an ascending low to form relative to the previous low, the current area presents an opportunity. If the price fails to reach last week's low, it's possible that a bottom is being formed. However, confirmation would require a breaker pattern, which could signal the end of the bearish move and a potential for an ascending low, leading to higher prices and the retesting of previously left FVG zones. The speaker concludes by reminding viewers about the VIP access and mentorship, with the first link in the pinned comments, and signs off.