CTM Live Session - Monday, April 13

The speaker expresses surprise at the market's recovery this weekend, noting a substantial gap down followed by printing session highs. The discussion immediately shifts to equity positioning, specifically an open trade on NVIDIA, which is pending long on the V4 equities system, with the V2 already active. A long trade on TQQ is also active. The speaker then addresses the delayed release of the V4 templates, explaining the reason for the hold-up. There's good news regarding a ceasefire, with pressure being applied for its resolution, allowing a return to pure markets. The 10-year yield suggests things are under control, and Iran seems to be facing economic pressure, with its blockade only affecting trade directly involving Iran, while other nations' ships pass through. The speaker moves on to discuss TQQ modeling. An initial model presented was incorrect, leading to a re-modeling effort from first principles. This new model shows improved drawdown performance. The speaker apologizes for the wrong model being loaded and clarifies that the correct TQQ V4 model shows a 17.9% drawdown going back to 2019. The new model is described as slightly better in terms of drawdown and return, with similar profitability. Tesla modeling was also attempted from first principles, but no significant improvement was found comparable to the TQQ. The speaker then outlines a new approach: modeling "pure" systems using only the base and trade management, without additional filters like the CTM filter or V2 filters. This "pure basics" model for TQQ shows a larger drawdown of 37%. The speaker explains the rationale behind this pure model. While acknowledging the high drawdown, the intention is to use it as a basis for a 50% reduced trading strategy. The speaker reviews year-over-year performance, noting good returns in 2025, 2024, and 2023, and underperformance in the 2022 bear market for TQQ (being buy-side only). The idea is to release these pure play templates alongside the top templates, allowing for forward testing of both. The speaker hasn't made a final decision but is currently focusing on TQQ for this pure model. The goal is to compare the performance of these pure models against the more "fitted" models with additional filters over the next three to six months to gather "priceless data" on which performs better. The speaker seeks input on this strategy, emphasizing that the V4 equity models are already "phenomenal" but believes the pure play route, with comparative forward testing, will provide valuable insights for individual execution styles. The delay in releasing the V4s is also attributed to personal circumstances, specifically the speaker's wife's recent surgery and the demands of caring for six children. Despite these challenges, the speaker is actively building and improving the TQQ model. The current improvement on TQQ is highlighted as "better" than previous versions, and the speaker aims for "the best." The pure plays are deemed important for the overall work being done. The conversation shifts to Bitcoin, which is pending long. The speaker notes the difficult trading range since early February, describing it as challenging for CTM momentum systems. A breakout or breakdown is expected soon, possibly this week. Seasonal factors, potential geopolitical conflicts (war), and oil prices above $100 are acknowledged as significant influences on the macro picture. The speaker questions the resilience of the economy and the impact of oil at $100 a barrel, considering if a price above $120 would be absorbed differently. Upcoming events like a China-US summit and midterm elections are also mentioned as factors. A technical issue with a V4 display is encountered, showing no pending signal, which is resolved by grabbing a fresh copy of the model. The speaker thanks David for bringing this to attention. Cardano is noted to be holding short, exhibiting "mega flatness." The speaker mentions Brownie Brown's work on V2 modeling for CTM core and expresses a desire to involve Ace in this as well. There's a request for a day's leeway if these collaborations don't happen today. The dashboard is not currently being worked on, as the focus is entirely on V4 equities modeling. The goal is to release the "best of the best" models first. The speaker reiterates the importance of the pure play models in addition to the perfect V4 models for equities. The plan is to work on creating a pure play for "everything" between today and tomorrow's session, leading up to the release. The update concludes with a thank you and well wishes.