
L'INFLATION VA EXPLOSER ! LES CHIFFRES NE MENTENT PAS !
Audio Summary
AI Summary
The producer price index (PPI) figures released yesterday were catastrophic, with the monthly PPI at 1.4% and core PPI at 1%, both significantly exceeding forecasts and previous data, indicating higher-than-anticipated inflation. Despite this, US indices continue to climb, with the market seemingly unconcerned. The speaker plans to focus on the US Dollar, Gold, and European indices.
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The market's indifference to the poor inflation data is attributed to the institutional belief in continued strong earnings, particularly driven by the AI boom. Companies like Nvidia are expected to see significant growth due to increasing demand for AI-related products and services, pushing US indices to new records. The narrative and momentum surrounding AI and semiconductors are fueling this upward trend.
Regarding specific trades, the speaker is personally long on the Dow Jones, having added to their position in a discount area following a daily low and within fair value gaps (FVGs). The strategy involves taking profits at buy-side liquidity zones and building a larger position for further gains beyond all-time highs. The daily fair value gap is holding, and liquidity grabs are viewed as potential bear traps to reach higher targets, specifically the 50260 point level.
The NASDAQ and S&P 500 have also reached new all-time highs and have retraced into discount zones, indicating continuation. The S&P 500's setup yesterday was described as "very clean," with price action taking out sell-side liquidity from an order block. The target for the S&P 500 is projected at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, around 7549, possibly this week. The overall market sentiment remains bullish, with the expectation that this trend will continue until the Dow Jones achieves a new all-time high. Potential retracements to lower lows are seen as buying opportunities within FVGs for bullish continuation.
Economic news is minimal, with no significant upcoming events expected to disrupt the current bullish momentum.
The US Dollar Index is currently testing its weekly FVG and has taken out previous weekly highs. While a reversal could lead to a drop to April lows, no such signs are currently visible. The rising dollar is consistent with higher inflation, increasing the probability of interest rate hikes. The market is pricing in a low chance of rate hikes by late 2026 but anticipates persistence of inflation for many months, potentially linked to the ongoing conflict. Chlations data also shows rising inflation.
The VIX is not showing signs of stress, indicating a lack of market fear, even with potential geopolitical tensions. A retest of a weekly FVG on the VIX could signal a bearish continuation, but for now, it remains stable.
Gold is not currently of interest to the speaker, despite the dollar's rise, as it is maintaining its daily FVG but is expected to enter a contraction phase.
European indices, including the DAX and CAC 40, are also expected to target new all-time highs. The DAX has seen liquidity grabs and is poised to break through its weekly fair value gap. The CAC 40 is testing its weekly FVG, with a potential breaker formation that could mark a low, but the overall direction is still considered bullish towards new highs.