
🚨 URGENT !! 10.000 BITCOIN ACHETÉS EN 24H !! (Choqué)
AI Summary
The speaker begins by discussing Michael Saylor's recent purchase of nearly 10,000 Bitcoin, which significantly boosted BTC's price. They plan to analyze price targets, correlation with U.S. indices, and the dollar's performance.
Before diving into the market analysis, the speaker reminds viewers about Wix, a platform offering VIP access, mentorship, and "rapport code" reports. To access these benefits, users need to be active on their Wix account and follow a specific registration process involving a Discord server and a unique command. The "market review rapport code" section on Discord shares insights into institutional market positioning.
Returning to Bitcoin, Saylor's purchase of 9,553 Bitcoins is highlighted as a massive acquisition. Calculating conservatively at an average price of $74,000, this equates to approximately $700 million. The speaker notes that while many believe Saylor buys OTC, he also uses the open market, with Coinbase algorithms managing these purchases. This buying activity is linked to a significant surge in CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta), indicating substantial buying pressure. This movement is seen as a key factor in Bitcoin's recent rally past $76,000.
The speaker then addresses the high level of speculation in derivatives, with a considerable increase in open interest. The market is described as "very leveraged," meaning more people have used leverage now than when Bitcoin previously hit $76,000. At the last $76,000 peak, open interest was about $6.8 billion, but this time it reached $7.6 billion, representing an additional $1 billion in leverage. This high leverage makes the market vulnerable to a "flush" or cascade of liquidations if bad news emerges. A potential liquidation zone is identified around $70,400, a significant consolidation area.
The analysis suggests watching whether the price re-integrates its previous range. If it does, a flush could occur to clear out "long" positions that entered during the recent upward movement. Open interest has surged across various exchanges like Bybit and Binance, with Binance seeing a $1 billion increase and Bybit an $800 million increase. While this involves both long and short positions, a negative news event could severely impact long positions, potentially pushing the price below recent lows. The speaker emphasizes that a drop below these lows would be an opportunity, not a cause for panic, as they do not believe the market has topped out.
The speaker explains that the market's immediate rejection at $76,000, the March peak, was an algorithmic response, triggering buy stops before reversing. They also point out that while the spot market showed a retracement after hitting $76,000, the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) market did not trigger stops. Since CME is considered the "purest form of price action," this suggests that the current level is not the ultimate top, and the price is likely to revisit higher levels. However, this may not happen in a single shot; the price could create traps or clean out lower levels first, such as the $70,400 zone, especially if there's negative news.
For the current day, the speaker advises watching for a retest of yesterday's low at $73,767, noting a small bullish fair value gap that could be filled. If no major liquidation flush occurs, the price might briefly touch this level before continuing its ascent past $76,000. A break below $73,000, however, could signal a deeper retracement to rework lower fair value gaps and potentially trigger a flush towards $70,400 due to excessive leverage in the market.
The market is currently characterized as "crowded long," with many participants holding long positions. Despite this, the underlying buying flow remains strong, with Saylor and ETFs continuing to purchase Bitcoin. Institutional data from the VIP section also indicates institutions have stopped shorting Bitcoin and have even switched to long positions. Therefore, the speaker is not overly concerned about a retest above $76,000 before the FOMC meeting. While not a definitive long-term bottom, the current trend is bullish, and targets like $80,000 in April are considered realistic.
A significant point of concern for investors is the Bitcoin hash rate, which is showing signs of topping. This is attributed to the increasing profitability of artificial intelligence mining compared to Bitcoin mining. The electrical cost for Bitcoin mining offers a lower profit margin (around 5 cents per kWh) compared to AI mining (12-15 cents per kWh). Consequently, some mining farms are switching from Bitcoin to AI, either by selling Bitcoin reserves to buy Nvidia GPUs for AI data centers or by using AI profits to buy BTC directly. This shift is causing the hash rate to decline, which could lead to a downward adjustment in Bitcoin's fundamental value (production cost) and potentially lower prices in the coming months.
Despite these underlying concerns, the immediate price movement is still bullish. The speaker reiterates that the CME not triggering stops above $76,000 is a clear sign that the price will revisit those levels. If this happens soon, caution is advised, as it could lead to pullbacks or even a flush to $70,400 due to high leverage.
Regarding Ethereum, a major point of interest, a CME gap has been partially filled. This gap, ranging from approximately $3,000 to $2,400, is a probable target for the second quarter. The speaker also considers a "liquidity grab at the beginning of the quarter" scenario, similar to the previous quarter. However, the current market dynamics are different: while the previous quarter's upward movement in early April lacked a southern liquidity grab, this quarter's movement was initiated by one, making it "healthier." Despite this, the speaker does not recommend longing Ethereum at extreme levels due to the extremely high open interest, which has increased by over $1 billion in 24 hours. This suggests an impending flush on Ethereum as well.
In conclusion, the speaker anticipates Ethereum to fill its CME gap in Q2, potentially leading to a period of consolidation and manipulation before further expansions or retracements to reclaim lower liquidity zones. The speaker ends by reminding viewers about Wix and its offerings, including soon-to-be-released algorithms.