Daily Briefing - 14/04/26 - "Incertitude Maximum"

Hello everyone. I'm very happy to be back with you. We're going to do a quick, purely graphical review. I won't delve into the various news of the past two weeks, or particularly the last two or three days, as the market completely disregards the physical reality of things. We'll just review the setup and recent evolution of probabilities concerning the weekly brief context. Specifically, we are supposedly in the phase where the next step is a "bull trap." This doesn't mean an all-time high, but it's still quite a rebound for a bull trap, to say the least. As mentioned in the brief, there's also a probability of this scenario being invalidated, with a return to an all-time high and so on. There is indeed a possible invalidation, and the idea today, or this morning, is that when I read your reactions, I see you immediately jumping to the conclusion, "Well, we're getting wiped out, it's over, all-time high," etc. I have a few technical arguments to counter this interpretation. So, for now, let's start. Obviously, the nature of the rebound is astonishing. Let's look at the hourly chart. What do I see here on the hourly? Now I have an upward moving average. In upward contexts, we squeeze into resistance. It's quite crazy. But what worries me most here is when I look at the history, I have the inverse movement here. That is, a declining average and prices that were below the contexts. This was only about ten "context boxes" ago, meaning roughly ten days ago, we had the exact opposite sentiment, even more bearish than what we had. We had a declining average, declining contexts, and then a complete reversal. We've now crossed the average, the volatility boundary, and we're squeezing. This means, once again, be careful how you trade these zones. It tells me one thing: a market that goes from bearish to bullish in terms of trend structure doesn't just happen once. It's often a sign that you're dealing with a range on higher timeframes, but not just one level up. When you go from bearish to bullish, you generally need to go up at least two or even three levels. So, let's keep it simple; we'll check the 4-hour chart. I've removed the prices so we can just study the structure. What do you see here? Similarly, an attempt at a trend, and then it's invalidated. So, clearly, we are likely in a 4-hour range. Let's go up another level for information. Ah, here it's not a range. What do we have here? It's extremely bullish. It's going up, up, preceded by a trend, and we can clearly see that we'd like to find this famous range, but you have the answer. What you see on the hourly chart is a clear sign that a range is forming on higher timeframes. The uncertainty is that we're bearish, then suddenly bullish, and that's the sign not of a market with a clear direction, but of a market that has none. And here, what do we clearly have on the daily chart for those familiar with the strategy? We have a potential delayed third boundary. I remind you that you cannot trade delayed third boundaries. This means you can't do anything here, or you have to anticipate a delayed third boundary. And what does that tell you? Everything you see on the hourly chart suggests that it will likely neutralize, since we've already sent a sell signal on the hourly, and we're just challenging it. Yes, it's brutal. Yes, it's vertical. When we look here, indeed, what momentum! But that's where it stops. Here, if we draw the channel, we've clearly climbed back to the trend channel. We've gone from context to context, we're rebounding. And what will happen here? If it fails, you'll have the delayed third boundary. So you already know one thing and one thing only: the next pattern is either, as we said, an all-time high, or obviously a rejection but a break of the low point. In other words, what do we have before our eyes today? Confirmation of the weekly brief's technical bias. So, nothing has changed, in fact. It's not because the rebound is super powerful. No, it's returning to the top of the trend channel. Nothing structurally more complicated than that. There's no need to go further. We are therefore at the top of a bearish trend channel. Because this trend channel has descending lows, we are looking for a descending high. We are in the zone where, a priori, there isn't much room before either invalidating this bias—meaning, as we said, we'll have descending lows and ascending highs. As I told you, I don't know what we'll make of that, but globally it just means we're making a foolish range. We said it's possible. We said in that case, we'll have to stop looking for sales temporarily since we'll be dealing with a range whose structure will be unconventional. In that case, once again, we take our time, we push back stop losses if we can, otherwise we take partial losses and review the graphical structure. We go back to our long-term plan. The long-term plan, in any case, is what we saw in the weekly and monthly briefs, and the long-term briefs. We have a closed monthly signal. It's the third in the pattern. Everything here shows that we're dealing with a reversal pullback signal, meaning a monthly market top, whose consequences will be felt over the next two to three years with a retreat that should constitute the end of a monthly selling cycle. So, as we said, we're not just going to stay flat; no, we're going to decline for two years and complete a full selling cycle, something we haven't seen since 2008. The closest we came to it was the decline we saw in 2022, just before the various bubbles you know about relaunched. So, the pattern is always the same for me. Either I'll have an unconventional daily range with a classic structure, namely divergent lows and highs. That's one of the possibilities awaiting us. In that case, we'll go look for that level, continue to scrape, etc. You've seen, that's the pattern we had in the weekly brief. So for me, everything here indicates, from a technical point of view, that we are at a crucial decision point: the top of the channel. If the top of the channel responds, we will return to the bottom of the channel. A delayed third boundary means we will necessarily break this channel. And that's it, it will stop there. We will neutralize, and we will finally have this famous daily range. This daily range, as we said, will have already made its delayed third boundary. So afterward, it can start to continue looking for the fourth, possibly go back up for a fifth, which is not guaranteed either, or simply continue to decline. When you have a delayed third boundary, you already have a mature range because when you break the context, you are making the fourth boundary. I want you to understand that what we're doing today might be the last rebound the American index will offer. And when I talk about the famous return to normal, etc., which will probably be rejected, that also confirms this bias. That is, if we really make a delayed third boundary and then fall again from there, there will be no more rebounds afterward. The range will already be mature. All those who haven't taken this selling opportunity will therefore be late, and most of them will reposition themselves afterward without ever going back to the upper boundary. There's no need to go back for a fifth boundary. That's what you need to understand. In short, for me, the message is clear. It is the confirmation of the technical biases. Yes, it's violent in the short term, but yes, there is indeed a risk that we will reach the all-time high because the S&P wants to, etc., but in the short term, we are in the zone where it will be decided. So, I mainly expect one thing: as I said, if I'm right and it is indeed a bull trap, then normally we won't range here for long. On the hourly chart, we've already squeezed everything. In short, there's no point in looking at lower timeframes. When you squeeze on the hourly, it's completely foolish to tell yourself, "I'm going to trade in 15 minutes." So, in my opinion, everything is playing out on the hourly. Either we exit this squeeze violently downwards, and as I told you, it's simple, plain, and nasty. In other words, it's a reversal by extinction of volatility. We go from an excessive low point to an excessive high point, and one of the two is wrong. And I told you, and I will be clear in my approach, one of the two will be wrong. Either we were wrong to take this bearish movement. I tell you, invalidation of the monthly signal is possible, and we will have to review the entire plan. But not just on the hourly; we will have to review the plan up to the monthly. However, if the monthly signal is clean and clear, the anomaly is this. It's just to say it's great, we will have pushed hard, but in the end, we go back in the other direction, and there will be no support here. In other words, this signal is the anomaly. That one will be sold, and we will go back below it. For me, it's really simple and nasty. Here, we are just maximizing short-term volatility. That's all I see. That is, we are amplifying each wave to the maximum. We pushed the bear to the maximum, we just pushed the bull to the maximum; one of the two is wrong. But if the upper boundary is there, the range on the higher timeframe will give us a delayed third boundary. So, I already know that this support will give way afterward. If this zone holds, we will break it. And this, once again, is what we planned in the weekly briefs. That doesn't mean it's what will happen. It just means that from a statistical point of view, it cannot happen otherwise. If we decline again, we will break the support. There will be no, "Oh, we'll make an ascending low," etc. If this zone rejects, we will break the support afterward. Delayed third boundary equals a famous bull trap; everyone will be caught off guard, and we will have to react to supports. In other words, it will be at the break of the support that everyone will become sellers, and as we said, that will clearly be the signal of the bull trap. We will probably already be relatively close to the objectives. In short, I'll stop here because there's no point in going much further. So, the technical structure, an S&P at 6900 that disregards all physical realities. I'm not talking about the USD/JPY which has been pulling back since this morning. So again, I'm just telling you, in my opinion, you're being taken for fools. And there you have it. In short, my personal opinion, because I see that you are all completely in a panic, like, "Oh, damn, we're caught off guard. I was a seller, I had gains, everything is gone. Damn it!" And then there are those who sold a little too early. So, in short, we pay attention to all that. For me, there's a lot of psychology, but from a technical point of view, it's clear. For me, it's playing out on the hourly. We have pulled the maximum rebound we could pull. It stops there. Either it's over here, we return to reality. It was a bull trap, and prices will fall again. But this time, once again, I don't care what the triggers are, but I think I've already given you clues. And there you have it. Either, unfortunately, this top of the channel will not respond. We forget the story of the delayed third boundary, there will be no daily range, and in that case, perhaps the monthly zone is not yet there. That's the message, it's simple and nasty. It will stop there for me. That is, either this zone is broken, we will review the timing, and we will also have to question the monthly because the failure to neutralize a daily trend, or to neutralize an upward daily movement when we have a monthly signal, normally, indeed, we must legitimately neutralize the daily and then define. That is, when the daily range is installed, I say if we go back up to make a fifth boundary, that's when the question will arise of whether we were really wrong. But first, for me, we need to neutralize. And here, we've seen, to neutralize, there's only one remaining solution today: the delayed third boundary. Otherwise, we'll have to make an all-time high again and start over later. And in that case, we'll have to completely review our timings. So, on these good words, I wish you all a pleasant day. Don't panic; we are at the decision point. The market has once again pushed to the maximum, maximizing doubt is the perpetual machine of Wall Street. So, be very careful that this doesn't trigger stupid emotions in you, but just to say, we've gone up to the maximum of what we could do; the answer will follow very quickly in the coming days. You know my personal opinion, which is that I remain overwhelmingly bearish. I have even significantly strengthened my selling positions. Time will tell if I was wrong or not. For now, I am absolutely not sweating, and I remain firm. The technical signals prove me right, and for now, I continue in this approach. Have a good day everyone, and see you soon.