💥 L'IRAN n'est qu'un PRÉTEXTE... La VRAIE cible, c'est la Chine !

On February 28, as the first bombs began to fall on Tehran, Donald Trump’s public rhetoric focused on familiar themes: nuclear proliferation, regional security, counter-terrorism, and the liberation of the Iranian people from an authoritarian regime. However, the underlying reality of this military intervention points toward a different, more significant target. The primary objective of the American president remains his lifelong adversary: China. The relationship between China and Iran is often viewed as an "unlikely couple"—an alliance between ultra-conservative Islamic clerics and an atheist Communist Party. Despite these ideological differences, the two nations have formed a deep, underground partnership that has increasingly frustrated Washington. This alliance, spanning over twenty years, is the key to understanding why an intervention in Iran is viewed by the U.S. administration as a strategic move to weaken Chinese global influence. The lifeblood of this partnership is oil. The transcript describes a "ghost choreography" in the Persian Gulf, where giant 300-meter tankers vanish from tracking systems by turning off their signals. These ships carry sanctioned Iranian oil that is officially forbidden from sale. Approximately three weeks later, these vessels reappear near the Chinese coast with empty holds. This shadow trade involves roughly 1.5 million barrels of oil per day, representing tens of billions of dollars circulating outside the reach of international sanctions. In 2024 alone, this generated $43 billion for Tehran. Under the Biden administration, between 2021 and 2024, Iran sold an estimated $140 billion worth of crude to China. To bypass U.S. sanctions, the trade relies on a "ghost fleet" of aging tankers, often uninsured and registered in jurisdictions like Panama, Cameroon, or the Seychelles. On paper, the Iranian oil is rebranded as originating from Malaysia or Oman. It is then sold to small, independent Chinese refineries in Shandong, known as "teapots," which purchase the crude at a significant discount—usually $2 to $5 below the Brent market price. Beyond oil, the relationship was formalized in March 2021 through a 25-year strategic agreement. This deal envisions $400 billion in Chinese investments across Iranian energy, transport, telecommunications, and infrastructure. Key projects include modernizing oil fields, upgrading Tehran’s airport, and developing port facilities at Jask and Chabahar to bypass the volatile Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, the agreement includes a high-speed rail link and the deployment of 5G technology through Huawei, integrating Iranian cybersecurity and AI with Chinese systems. In return, China secures a guaranteed supply of discounted oil for a quarter-century. While actual historical investment has been more modest—around $27 billion over 15 years due to the fear of U.S. secondary sanctions—the infrastructure for a massive expansion is already in place. The roots of this alliance date back to 1989, when Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei realized that the West would never be a reliable ally for Iran. During the Iran-Iraq war, while the U.S. supported Saddam Hussein and Europe remained passive, China provided Iran with missiles, tanks, and ammunition. This established a foundation of trust: China provided what Iran needed without lecturing the regime on human rights or democracy. The bond strengthened in 2018 when Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal, leading European companies like Total and Siemens to flee the Iranian market. China, however, remained. For Trump, the strategy is to use Iran as a lever against China. By striking Iran, the U.S. aims to deprive China of one of its most critical and affordable energy suppliers. This follows a pattern seen in Venezuela in January 2026, where U.S. forces helped topple the Maduro regime, cutting off a country that sent 85% of its oil to China. By targeting these "suppliers," the U.S. hopes to dry up the "client"—China—before any potential conflict over Taiwan. The economic fallout of this strategy is global. With the Strait of Hormuz under tension and Iranian infrastructure targeted, the flow of cheap oil to China has been disrupted. While China has alternatives like Russia, they are significantly more expensive. The loss of discounted Iranian crude forces Chinese refineries to pay much higher prices, leading to imported inflation and shrinking profit margins for Chinese manufacturing. The impact is also felt in Europe, where Brent crude prices have jumped 20% since the strikes began. This leads to higher costs at the pump, with projections suggesting diesel could reach €2.50 per liter. Meanwhile, the United States remains relatively insulated because it has become a net exporter of crude oil and gas, achieving a level of energy independence that Europe and China lack. As of early March, Trump has promised a quick victory within a week, similar to his goals for Venezuela. However, the transcript suggests caution: Iran is a nation of 90 million people with a battle-hardened military and a geography of rugged mountains. Furthermore, the Strait of Hormuz has been officially closed to most navigation, yet as of March 4, Chinese ships have been granted exclusive passage—a "thank you" from Tehran for twenty years of partnership. This complex geopolitical struggle demonstrates that the war in Iran is not just a regional conflict, but a central battleground in the broader economic and strategic rivalry between the United States and China.