La Bulle IA est terminée. Je sais quelles actions PEA acheter à la place

The speaker begins by inviting viewers into their trading room, outlining the plan to analyze key market indicators, including bonds, commodities, and approximately fifteen stocks, from both a pedagogical and opportunistic perspective for various investment accounts. They mention that a link to a categorized list of their favorite stocks for the current and upcoming year is available in the video description. The speaker emphasizes that the presented list is not exhaustive and encourages viewer participation in the comments. The analysis starts with the US 20-year bond, which is showing a breakdown. This trend signifies rising interest rates as bond prices fall. The market is pricing in persistent, "sticky" inflation, which would prevent the Federal Reserve from lowering rates, and could even lead to further rate hikes. This scenario is detrimental to the valuations of growth stocks, particularly AI-related companies. The speaker refers to a previous video for a comprehensive macroeconomic overview relevant for the coming weeks and months, at least until September. The breakdown in bonds is seen as a potential catalyst for market corrections, especially for growth and AI stocks, due to valuation concerns. However, the speaker cautions against immediately assuming durable inflation and wage growth as the primary drivers. They suggest that the bond market's breakdown might serve as a pretext for a correction, but the market could retest support levels. The speaker then highlights the rising Japanese interest rates and the Bank of Japan's potential actions to strengthen the yen. This could lead to a repatriation of Japanese and Asian investor funds from the US, potentially impacting US markets and the carry trade. The bond market's behavior is deemed crucial for understanding the market's inflation expectations. Next, the euro-dollar exchange rate is discussed. Rising US interest rates strengthen the dollar, attracting investment into higher-yielding US bonds. This contributes to the dollar's appreciation, which is unfavorable for European markets and emerging markets, although US markets might still underperform in absolute terms due to overall market declines. The key question is whether capital will remain in equities, seeking rotations, or move into safer assets like bonds. The speaker believes rotations have been the dominant trend. The euro-dollar is currently in a neutral, sideways range. A significant breakdown of the dollar would impact capital flows into Europe, where US investment has previously boosted certain stocks. Oil prices are considered less critical but still important. Despite tensions in Iran and efforts to engage with China, the speaker notes the ongoing "cold war." While oil sales to China are being explored, circumventing sanctions, elevated oil prices impact purchasing power and corporate margins. The speaker is bullish on oil, expecting it to remain above $80 per barrel, even if it drops from current levels within an ascending wedge pattern. A move below $95 is anticipated for a return to neutrality around $80. Copper's performance is highlighted, with a rejection at an upward trendline. The market appears disappointed by the US-China summit, which did not yield as many deals as expected. Copper is now testing support levels, and its continued rise would validate the thesis of rising commodity prices and associated margin pressures. The speaker also suggests that Chinese consumer demand might rebound by the end of the year, potentially benefiting companies in sectors like alcohol and apparel, contingent on lower oil prices. Food prices are identified as a significant inflationary concern. The TF Agribusiness ETF shows a consolidation phase after an initial surge, suggesting a potential second leg up. The speaker believes that rising food prices will eventually lead to social pressure and potentially policy changes. Regarding major indices, the CAC 40 is showing weakness compared to US markets. The speaker maintains a cautious but positive outlook, awaiting a break above 8100 points. A break below the current triangle pattern could lead to a stronger dollar, rising bond yields, and increased bearish pressure on the CAC 40. The Nasdaq 100 has experienced significant gains, a trend driven by momentum and concentration. The speaker reiterates the importance of their recent macro video. While the Nasdaq appears overextended, it remains in a buy-the-dip environment as long as key support levels hold. Even a significant correction would not necessarily negate the underlying bullish trend. The speaker advises buying on dips, accepting potentially deeper corrections, and avoiding panic selling. The market is entering a phase that requires patience for figure construction, potentially favoring stock picking and trading. The semiconductor sector is expected to follow a similar pattern to the Nasdaq, with potential for consolidation and the formation of new chart patterns. Precious metals like gold and silver are not expected to perform strongly if the market fears persistent inflation and favors cyclical, undervalued stocks. Silver is currently in an ascending triangle pattern. A breakdown below this pattern would signal a market focused on inflation and potential rate hikes, which would be negative for growth stocks, gold, and silver. Conversely, a breakout could indicate continued government stimulus and currency devaluation. The speaker then presents a selection of approximately fifteen stocks across various themes. **Chinese Stocks:** The speaker is positive on Chinese equities, believing they are investable again. They highlight a specific Chinese company (name not clearly transcribed but suggested to be pronounced in Mandarin) showing a potential upward trend after a pullback. JD.com is mentioned as having performed well after breaking out of a descending wedge, with a positive outlook for Chinese consumer spending recovery by year-end. Alibaba also saw a rebound. Other Chinese tech companies, like one involved in servers, are considered speculative plays with potential upside. **South American Equities:** The speaker acknowledges that South American markets have underperformed due to the resurgence of inflation concerns and dollar strength, but suggests these are merely postponed opportunities. **AI-Related Stocks:** While many AI stocks are perceived as overvalued and vulnerable to disruption, the speaker identifies some opportunities. Skyworks is mentioned as a potential buy on a pullback, with a target of $90-$100. Defensive tech stocks that are being negatively impacted by AI disruption fears, such as Volters, Figma, and potentially others like Nemet Check, Now, and ServiceNow, are seen as potential beneficiaries of repricing and revaluation. Insiders are buying shares, and buybacks are reducing float, creating potential for significant gains if the market reassesses the pace of AI disruption. **Solar and Healthcare:** The solar sector is considered attractive, with a target of $60-$70 for some stocks. Moderna is presented as a strong long-term play, with a target of $80, and investors are encouraged to buy on any significant pullbacks. Novavax is also identified as a congested value with potential for a breakout above $11. Healthcare and medical device companies, in general, are seen as having potential for significant rebounds, with IBA mentioned as a possibility to reach €18 and beyond. **Old Economy Stocks:** Companies in traditional sectors like Clariant, MI, and BLC are highlighted for their potential to break out and reach new highs. Elior is also mentioned, with a target of €4, and investors are advised to buy on pullbacks to €2.70-€2.80. **Small-Cap Stocks:** The speaker notes a typical return of retail investors to small-cap stocks during holiday periods. Crossject, Scap, and Adossia are presented as speculative plays with potential for significant short-term gains. Capital B is mentioned with a caveat about dilution but also noted for its speculative potential linked to Bitcoin. **Commodities and Energy:** A broad bullish stance on food-related investments is expressed. Brasil Potage is highlighted, with a target of $2.30, contingent on breaking above $3-$3.20. Nalasa is considered a speculative play in the energy sector with potential upside to $5.50. **General Market Strategy:** The speaker reiterates that dips in AI and semiconductor stocks are likely to be bought, offering opportunities for rebounds and the construction of future trading patterns. They advise caution around earnings reports, suggesting that markets often anticipate results, and buying on significant post-earnings dips for future potential. For certain tech stocks, a strong correction could present a buying opportunity. The video concludes with a reminder about the link to favorite stocks for 2026-2027, emphasizing diversification and a defensive portfolio. Viewers are encouraged to share their favorite stocks in the comments. The speaker wishes everyone a good weekend and announces their return on Monday.