IRAN - USA : UN ACCORD EN DANGER ! 🚨 (Risque pour les marchés)

The speaker begins by highlighting the potential jeopardy of the US-Iran agreement, suggesting this geopolitical tension could significantly influence market movements. They note that major indices have reached all-time highs (ATHs) and are now at potential reversal zones across various assets, including the dollar, gold, and oil. The speaker then transitions to promoting a free trading mentorship and VIP Discord access. To gain access, viewers must register on the Premix BT platform via a partner link, make a minimum deposit of $500 (which remains their trading capital), and then claim their VIP access by providing their email and Premix BT notification. Focusing on market analysis, the speaker observes that most assets have delivered on their expected price points. They mention that indices are at significant turning points. While the Dow Jones has not made a new ATH, the Russell, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have. The Nasdaq, in particular, has reached its ATH, presenting potential profit-taking zones or swing short opportunities to address inefficiencies left behind. The speaker anticipates the Nasdaq might revisit daily lows, potentially targeting Friday's low as an initial area of interest. They also point out the formation of a potential order block and a gap on the hourly chart, suggesting a possible retest of daily lows. The speaker emphasizes that as long as the momentum remains bearish, any upward movements should be met with caution until clear reversal signs, like breakers, appear, contingent on geopolitical developments. They note several unfilled fair value gaps (FVGs) on the Nasdaq chart, suggesting a potential for these to be filled, targeting Thursday's and Friday's lows, which could serve as good long entry zones. Regarding interest rates, the probability of a rate cut has increased to 43.8%, which is seen as a positive sign, although a decrease in this probability would be negative. The Dollar Index has reached its March low and is showing signs of a rebound. The speaker identifies a 12-hour FVG as a key level to watch. A sustained move above this FVG would indicate a stronger rebound, potentially leading to filling a larger gap. A stronger dollar is expected to put pressure on risk assets, potentially causing them to fill their own gaps. The speaker sees clear reversal signals on the dollar, including liquidity grabs and breaker formations, suggesting a potential retest of previous impulse legs or even gaps. The dollar's rebound is anticipated, unless a new agreement is reached. Conversely, the Eurodollar exhibits an inverse signal. After consolidation and manipulation, a breaker has been validated. The daily candle shows a clear liquidity grab, closing bearishly and breaking the previous two bullish candles, signaling a reversal. The speaker expects it to work its way up towards the March high, which is a significant resistance level. A break below the current FVG could lead to testing the weekly FVG. The speaker also highlights a weekly FVG on the Dollar Index that has been successfully defended, indicating an important zone to monitor. Turning to oil, the speaker notes a significant price delivery and reaction but no clear reversal signs yet. A break of a bearish FVG would be the first signal to target last week's high and continue working on that FVG. Oil's movement is heavily influenced by geopolitics. The speaker mentions a potential for reaching relative equal highs on oil if the conflict intensifies, possibly involving ground attacks and renewed Iranian shelling in the Gulf. The current dynamic remains bullish as the last low has not been broken. A breaker formation is noted, making the FVG zone crucial. While the overall trend might not be bearish, a break of the low that initiated the impulse would be a significant bearish signal. The speaker emphasizes that oil has not yet reintegrated its range, and such a reintegration would be a strong bullish signal. Until then, it might be the beginning of a new range, requiring close observation. Finally, the gold market has reached a key zone and is showing rejection. A strong dollar typically pressures gold. A break below the last FVG could signal a retest of last week's low, which was a liquidity grab. The speaker suggests that a slight liquidity grab here might lead to a revisit of this zone. In conclusion, the speaker reiterates that technically, all necessary conditions are in place for potential market movements. However, the geopolitical context, specifically the US-Iran situation, is the dominant factor. If the geopolitical tensions escalate, it could drive oil and the dollar higher, while pushing gold and US indices lower. The speaker ends by reminding viewers about the VIP crypto access and upcoming algorithms.