LIVEROOM - Travaux Pratiques

The speaker begins by addressing technical issues with the live stream, noting a delay and problems with chat visibility. He then moves into analyzing various stock tickers requested by viewers, emphasizing the importance of clear market structure and company financials. The first stock analyzed is characterized by a lack of clear trend structure and excessive, speculative price movement. The speaker notes a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 27, which he considers very high, especially given that the price surged significantly in just six months without corresponding revenue growth. He concludes that the stock is overpriced and likely to experience a substantial pullback, suggesting it’s driven by hype rather than fundamental value. He identifies it as being in the semiconductor sector. Next, a stock ticker (Nemet) is analyzed. While initially appearing excessive, its rise is partially justified by consistent and growing earnings and increasing margins. However, the speaker still cautions that it is "very expensive" and requires careful attention. He contrasts this with the previous stock, which he quickly dismisses as "speculative garbage" due to its rapid, unjustified ascent in the "most idiotic sectors of the moment." He criticizes paying 30 times earnings when profits have only just started to increase, indicating a disconnect between price and underlying value. Another stock is reviewed, which the speaker finds completely overvalued, with a PE ratio of 37 to 40. He questions the sector (software/tech) and advises against buying at such high valuations, even suggesting that buying at $67 is too much. He advises waiting for a significant pullback, ideally buying on a third board if it rebounds from a lower price. He emphasizes the current market context where many tech stocks, despite declining by 50%, still maintain high PE ratios (around 40), which he finds concerning and indicative of widespread overvaluation. The discussion then shifts to LVMH, which has been previously analyzed. The speaker then addresses a question about signal momentum and triangles of confirmation in technical analysis. He clarifies that a signal marks a potential bottom, and a subsequent "triangle of confirmation" indicates price reaction and a reversal structure, confirming the trend. A cryptocurrency (XU308) is briefly examined, but the speaker dismisses it due to a lack of liquidity and clear structure. He expresses strong skepticism about the crypto market, predicting that 99% of cryptocurrencies will fail, with only a small percentage surviving. He believes the "pump and dump" and "to the moon" phases are over, and any future growth will be more gradual and based on viable technology, not speculative hype. He attributes past speculative bubbles, including in crypto, to "VC money" (venture capital) that is now redirecting towards AI, predicting similar cycles of overvaluation and eventual collapse in that sector. The speaker then considers Ubisoft, noting its current struggles to maintain earnings, which has led to a significant price decline. He sees it as a "pure value play" to buy when the company is perceived as "dead," expecting a rebound in the next economic cycle (around 2033). He explicitly states he doesn't expect Ubisoft to reach new historical highs, but rather to recover from its current low. He describes it as a cyclical stock, akin to buying during economic troughs. LDLC is then analyzed, described as a "typical stupid range" stock. The speaker sees no immediate buy signals and suggests selling at the low end of its monthly range. Prismian is discussed, showing significant dilution and a price increase despite this. The speaker observes a range breakout and advises taking partial profits when the price becomes overbought, especially if results don't follow the price increase. He expresses concern about the stock's disconnect from reality, noting a PE of 27 while profits are struggling. He warns that if the AI bubble bursts, the company's profits could disappear, leading to a massive PE increase and eventual price collapse. The speaker briefly touches on food commodities, advising exposure through ETFs rather than direct future products, cautioning about associated costs. He mentions his interest in IGS and Wisdom Tree ETFs over some American brokers. Solvay (SOLB) is presented as a relatively "anti-fragile" dividend stock, known for passing crises well and paying regular dividends for 20 years. He sees it as a cyclical value that drops during crises (e.g., 2015 Chinese crisis, 2020 Covid) and offers opportunities to buy low and collect dividends, though he notes it's not a highly rewarding strategy for rapid gains. Adobe is analyzed, with the speaker noting its long history and consistent profitability. Despite a PE of 14, he advises waiting for a better entry point, possibly around 2028 if profits are maintained and the price stays near its median. He likes it because "everyone is spitting on it," which often indicates a good buying opportunity. SiriusXM is deemed difficult to analyze due to manipulated supply and high variability in revenue. The speaker suggests analyzing its market cap instead of its price directly, as the two are disconnected. He concludes that the standard strategy is not applicable due to too many interacting variables. A stock (1837) is identified as a simple monthly range trade. The speaker suggests waiting for volatility to calm down before buying, acknowledging that such alerts can last for years. A stock with a PE of 212 (consumer non-durable sector) is highlighted as potentially interesting for future investment if it can be acquired at a much lower PE (e.g., 8) during a market downturn (mid-2028), aiming for a 30-35% price reduction. SMR is discussed, described as chaotic but potentially offering a buying opportunity within its range, despite concerns about dilution and losses. Stellar (a crypto) is dismissed due to a lack of structure and a history of being delisted. XFAB, a semiconductor stock, is seen as having a stable price and profits, making it a potentially "durable creation" if it avoids the excessive hype of the AI wave. The speaker finds it more appealing than overvalued semiconductor peers. He then analyzes a "flow" trade on a 4-hour timeframe, noting extreme volatility and advising caution. NetEase (a stock ticker) is identified as a dividend value stock that should be analyzed with dividends included. The speaker sees a clear range and accumulation, making him a buyer on pullbacks despite it being a software company. The speaker then provides guidance on managing entry positions based on available signals, emphasizing buying on pullbacks to the median or third board for trending stocks. He dismisses stocks that lack clear technical structures, requiring cash flow analysis instead. He reviews GLE (Société Générale), finding it unappealing due to poor risk-reward ratios for buying at current levels, especially compared to buying low in a range. He reiterates his philosophy of seeking value structures rather than temporary "fashion effects" driven by investor psychology. He explains that dividend coupons are detached from the share value, so buying just before a dividend doesn't inherently increase the stock's value. The speaker discusses the S&P 500, noting extreme uncertainty and advising against buying, as the market is in a speculative bubble, with existing bubbles showing signs of deflation. Euro GBP in forex is analyzed as a range-bound pair without a strong trend. The speaker advises buying at low retracement levels (61% or 76% Fibonacci) within the bullish range and taking profits at the high end. SHUR is presented as a stable stock within a good range, with existing buy signals. He notes a discrepancy between the context and the indicator, but still sees it as a buy zone if a confirmation triangle appears. Lululemon Athletica is described as a "sacred mess" that was once a bubble. Despite a chaotic structure and a deep pullback (beyond 61% Fibonacci), the speaker considers it a viable pullback play due to a relatively low PE of 12% and signs of the company buying back shares. SMR is revisited, showing a classic range breakout, trend follow-up, divergence, and ongoing deep pullback (50-61%). He advises targeting previous all-time highs and exiting. Render (a crypto token) is deemed "very complicated" and associated with "VC money" and "exit liquidity," suggesting it's likely to suffer. Mining stock MC mining is dismissed due to highly variable circulating supply, making it unanalyzable. An analysis of a 3-board (3BR) setup on a 4-hour chart for a stock (1LV) is discussed, with the speaker confirming the validity of previous setups but noting the current one is a 5-board, not a 3-board. He confirms cutting all short positions on individual US stocks, including Tesla, after taking profits, anticipating further declines. He emphasizes sticking to pure technical analysis and strategy. The speaker explains his trading philosophy: he prefers value structures over speculative assets because speculative bubbles are "dangerous" and "the cancer of capitalism," concentrating wealth in unproductive hands. He believes the financial market, despite its flaws, is a crucial human creation for facilitating exchange, but he criticents its current "corrupted" state due to debt and manipulation, especially by US markets. He expresses strong support for decentralized cryptocurrencies (like IBC) as a potential replacement for the current corrupt financial system, seeing them as a more robust and verifiable system for future economies. Finally, he analyzes USDN, identifying it as a low-end trend within a range. He describes Japan's market as having gone through a 20-year "breathing" period after a 90s bubble, now potentially at its worst but with future prospects. He advises buying USDN at the low end of its range, confident in its underlying structure. The session concludes with a warning about the "extremely tricky" markets and the importance of being cautious. He dismisses further crypto requests (Atom, Helium One Global) if they lack analyzable market caps or clear structures, reiterating his strategy of buying low in a monthly range, even if it means holding through potential further declines, as long as the risk is defined. He acknowledges a significant, risky over-weighting of Atom in his crypto portfolio, accepting the potential loss as the "grossest trade of his life" if it goes to zero. He remains convinced of the underlying technology and its potential for a decentralized future, comparing Atom's economic liability to a Linux-like action rather than a zero-value asset.