Bitcoin: The Dangers of Complacency

Today's discussion focuses on Bitcoin and the inherent dangers of complacency in financial markets. Complacency is characterized by a widespread belief in continued financial stability, leading investors to disregard obvious threats. The "buy the dip" mentality, effective in bull markets, proves largely ineffective in bear markets, where rallies are typically short-lived before the market resolves lower. Various risks contribute to this, including inflation, labor market conditions, and geopolitical uncertainty, such as the current spike in oil prices. Historically, such oil price spikes in a late business cycle environment often precipitate the end of business cycles. Complacency manifests as high market valuations and low volatility amidst ongoing negative events. This can lead people to believe that financial stability will persist indefinitely, despite indicators suggesting otherwise. Looking at Bitcoin's current bear market, it began in Q4 of the post-halving year, with a dip below the 21-week EMA in October-November 2025. A subsequent counter-trend rally from November to mid-January saw Bitcoin rejected by the bear market resistance band, currently around $79,000 and declining. This should not be mistaken for market strength, but rather as a sign of complacency. Despite ongoing issues like labor market weakness, rising inflation, spiking oil prices, and geopolitical conflicts, the market appears unfazed. This period of complacency often precedes further market downturns. We've seen this before, with the market trending sideways for about eight weeks before declining. The current situation mirrors this, with Bitcoin's year-to-date ROI tracking previous midterm years, which often feature complacency around this time. Complacency is dangerous because it fosters a false sense of security among bullish investors. In bear markets, prices generally spend more time trending up than trending down, but when they do fall, they do so rapidly, reaching new lows quickly. This leads to a cycle where bullish sentiment during counter-trend rallies is followed by quiet periods during downtrends, only for the bullish sentiment to re-emerge during subsequent rallies, often at lower price points. While some of the sharpest rallies in Bitcoin occur during bear markets, they typically result in lower highs. The market structure has shifted since October 2025. Previously, Bitcoin would trend down and then break higher. Now, it tends to break lower and then trend up. This change underscores the importance of being aware of developing complacency. The current environment, with spiking oil prices in a late business cycle, is a classic indicator of an impending business cycle end. A visual representation of the business cycle, using a formula involving the S&P 500, unemployment rate, US inflation rate, and US interest rates normalized by M2, clearly shows this pattern dating back to the 1960s. Every cycle ended with a recession, often coinciding with an oil price spike in the late stage. An oil spike in an early business cycle, driven by demand, can be bullish, but in a late cycle, it is generally a bearish sign. The ITC business cycle chart and the ITC liquidity risk dashboard confirm that we are in a late business cycle environment with tight liquidity conditions, similar to 2006-2007, which preceded a rapid market shift. The economic policy uncertainty index is also elevated, mirroring levels seen before prior recessions. It's challenging to be bearish in a market where bulls often make money, but bears are sometimes correct. It's acceptable to be a bear in a bear market and a bull in a bull market, but not the reverse. Many refuse to acknowledge data that contradicts their desired market outcome. In a late business cycle, higher-risk assets are the first to suffer. This explains the earlier decline in crypto interest and social engagement since 2021. The market experiences a "rolling down the risk curve," where the riskiest assets bleed first, followed by progressively less risky ones. Initially, the "froth" in the altcoin market dries up, then Bitcoin is affected, followed by the stock market, and eventually metals. This is not a rotation from lower to higher risk; rather, higher-risk assets bleed, and it takes longer for lower-risk assets to follow. This dynamic makes the current cycle feel different. This late business cycle environment is confirmed by the business cycle chart, liquidity cycle chart, declining social interest over several years, and the spiking price of oil, which typically marks the beginning of the end of a business cycle. This is a long process, not an overnight event, but it's a pattern that will likely be recognized in hindsight. While individual rallies can be misleading, the overall business cycle takes time to play out. If the current cycle follows the pattern of 2000, it could still be some time before a full unwinding. Ultimately, prices are expected to resolve downward. The S&P appears to be in a topping process, with Bitcoin bleeding first, followed by stocks and metals in a cascading effect down the risk curve. Complacency is dangerous because elevated asset prices do not guarantee their permanence, and a lack of immediate negative reaction to adverse events doesn't mean they won't react later. The current market structure and indicators already provide a clear narrative, even without external news. It is crucial to approach this from a rational perspective and question persistent bullish narratives if they have consistently failed in the past. If it looks, walks, and talks like a bear market, it probably is one. While the exact timing of the next significant drop is unknown, the average outlook for the next few months suggests weakness with some counter-trend rallies. A crisis, such as one related to spiking oil, could accelerate the bear market. However, absent a crisis, the status quo of a late business cycle with high valuations and low volatility will likely persist, drawing people in before the market eventually resolves lower.