La Chine a-t-elle déjà gagné la bataille technologique ?

Today's discussion on Silicone Carnet focuses on China, which has surpassed the United States in global innovation reputation. China is currently producing a smartphone every second and a humanoid robot every 30 seconds, even as its birth rate hits a record low and its youth express increasing disillusionment. The CEO of Nvidia, Jensen Huang, recently expressed frustration over American sanctions, which he views as a complete failure, especially as DeepSeek, an AI model, is set to run on Chinese chips. This development is seen as a potential disaster for America. Meanwhile, as the U.S. celebrated the return of Artemis 2, a Chinese space probe, scheduled for August, is preparing for its own lunar mission with objectives that could be game-changing. Evan Carvella, CEO and founder of Chipiron, highlighted China's 15th five-year plan, which aims to integrate artificial intelligence into 90% of its economy by 2030, covering everything from flying cars to brain implants and humanoid robots. This ambitious vision, reminiscent of American optimism, seems to be working, as China now leads in global reputation for innovation. Five years ago, Silicon Valley's venture capitalists and entrepreneurs were dismissive of China, viewing it as a copycat with a closed market and second-rate technology. However, this perception has drastically changed, particularly after DeepSeek's R1 model was released in January 2025, causing a stir in the tech world and a market crash. Evan noted that China's plan includes not only tangible AI integration but also a focus on "high-value-added patents," aiming for a higher density of these patents per 10,000 inhabitants. This metric symbolizes their innovation ambition. Historically, China has achieved about 90% of its five-year plan objectives, demonstrating remarkable consistency and long-term vision, unlike political programs in other nations that often reverse previous efforts. This consistency is particularly striking as China is now catching up with the West in technologies like AI. Jean-Dominique Séval, an economist and digital specialist, explained that the five-year plan is part of a broader "Made in China 2025" strategy, launched in 2015, which ignited American concerns about China's ambition to overtake them. China has largely met its objectives in AI, quantum computing, space technologies, and medical advancements, with only minor delays in civil aviation and semiconductors, which are highly complex industries. Guillaume Grallet, science and tech editor at Le Point, observed that Chinese cities are becoming "laboratories of the future," with widespread adoption of electric vehicles, AI, quantum, and 6G. He emphasized China's long-term, centralized vision, which, despite privacy concerns, has led to a logical and complementary series of plans. He recalled a conversation with Ren Zhengfei, Huawei's founder, who predicted China's return to its historical position as the world's leading technological and scientific power. Historically, China contributed 25-30% of global GDP from the Roman Empire to modern times, except for a "century of humiliation" when it missed the Industrial Revolution. After 40 years of uninterrupted growth since 1980, China is regaining its global standing. The discussion then touched upon the dual nature of technology in China: its impressive innovative capacity alongside its use for population control. The cashless society, reliant on WeChat and other digital platforms, and the social credit system, which monitors behavior, exemplify this control. While the social credit system hasn't been fully deployed nationally due to technical and social challenges, it still impacts millions, restricting travel for those with low scores. This system, ironically, was inspired by a Chinese sociologist who observed the credit scoring system in the U.S. and envisioned a similar model for social education and assistance, which later evolved into a surveillance tool. Jensen Huang's recent comments on U.S. chip export controls highlight the economic consequences of these policies. Nvidia's market share in China has dropped from 95% to 50%, and DeepSeek is reportedly set to run on Huawei's Ascend chips, a significant blow to American technological leadership. Huang argues that restricting chip exports only encourages China to develop its own solutions, whereas continued sales would maintain U.S. influence and benefit from Chinese developers using American tech stacks. China's energy strategy is another critical advantage. It has the largest energy capacity globally, with half of the world's wind and solar power, and more nuclear reactors than France. They are also advanced in carbon capture technologies, aligning with their long-term goal of a zero-carbon economy by 2060. The Chinese approach to innovation also includes creating open-source standards, as seen with companies like Brenco, which open-sourced its advanced robotic hand, Revo 3. This strategy leverages China's complete mastery of the industrial and supply chains, allowing them to rapidly manufacture and scale technologies. Shenzhen, for example, hosts 25,000 high-tech companies in just 12 square kilometers, four times more than Silicon Valley. This ecosystem, combining top universities, robust funding, government-set plans, and fierce internal competition, fosters an unparalleled environment for technological advancement. Demographically, China faces significant challenges. With fewer than 8 million births in 2025, its lowest since 1949, and a fertility rate of one child per woman, the population is projected to be halved by 2100. This demographic decline, coupled with a real estate crisis, high youth unemployment, and geopolitical tensions, creates a multi-crisis scenario. The "Tang Ping" (lying flat) movement among disillusioned youth, who prefer to stay home rather than engage in intense competition, and the "Bailan" (let it rot) phenomenon, where employees deliberately slow down work, reflect growing societal anxieties, particularly about AI's impact on employment. In the space race, China is making ambitious strides. While the U.S. celebrated Artemis 2, China's Cheng'e 7 probe is set to launch in August to search for ice at the lunar south pole. This mission is part of a larger plan to establish a permanent lunar base with a nuclear reactor by 2035, with subsequent missions like Cheng'e 8 testing in-situ construction. This aggressive timeline and focus on long-term lunar presence demonstrate China's commitment to becoming a multi-planetary civilization, a vision also championed by Elon Musk. The discussion concluded by reflecting on Europe's position amidst this U.S.-China rivalry. While Europe possesses strong R&D capabilities and technical expertise, it struggles with market fragmentation and a lack of unified strategy. The panelists emphasized the need for Europe to develop its own ambitious plan, akin to China's, to avoid becoming a technological satellite of either power. This would involve prioritizing European solutions, even if it means short-term competitive disadvantages, and engaging pragmatically with both the U.S. and China while upholding European values. The urgency for Europe to regain sovereignty and accelerate its technological development is critical, especially given China's rapid advancements in just two decades. The importance of long-term vision, common sense, and a less risk-averse approach to innovation, as seen in China, was highlighted as essential for Europe's future.