This Is The Most Overvalued Market EVER

The speaker begins by discussing the current market situation, highlighting that many stocks are pulling back despite beating earnings. He questions whether this signifies a market top or if there's more room for growth. He then delves into Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) charts, referencing a previous discussion about a Smart Money Technique (SMT) between them. He explains that he previously shorted Ethereum based on its weakness compared to Bitcoin, yielding a 7-8% move. Now, he analyzes the next potential moves. He emphasizes that in trading, one must find asymmetric bets where potential reward significantly outweighs risk (at least 2:1 or 3:1). He illustrates how a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio requires only a 33% win rate to break even, and a 3:1 ratio needs just 25%, allowing for more shots and mitigating losses. Regarding Bitcoin, he notes that recent price movement has cleared a low, making a bullish argument cleaner. He points to a 12-hour order block and a "sweep" (a price dip below a low followed by a quick recovery) as a more defined setup for a long position with a tighter stop loss and target compared to earlier in the week. He stresses the importance of patience, allowing price to provide more context and clearer invalidation points. While he is still leaning bearish on higher timeframes, he acknowledges the improved long setup for bulls. He then compares ETH to BTC, noting that ETH closed as a weekly bearish SFP (Swing Failure Pattern) and is holding below a key level, whereas BTC closed above it. He identifies another SMT where BTC made a higher low while ETH made a lower low in the same timeframe, suggesting BTC has more strength for a potential bounce. He advises longing the stronger asset (BTC) if one were to choose between the two. He reiterates the importance of a top-down analysis, considering high-timeframe sentiment, market structure, range, liquidity targets, and defined risk before entering any trade. The speaker briefly touches on Solana (SOL), identifying it as the weakest of the three crypto assets. He expresses a desire for BTC, SOL, and ETH to push higher, ideally with BTC breaking above $80,000, before considering a bullish stance. He outlines two scenarios for BTC around the $80,000 level: a rejection leading to a short opportunity back into a lower trading range, or a reclaim and hold above $80,000, indicating bullish momentum towards $90,000. Transitioning to traditional finance (TradFi), he observes that the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow, and Russell are all pushing to new highs. However, he finds it "interesting" that several major tech companies like Microsoft and Meta, despite beating earnings expectations significantly, are trading lower. Google is an exception, gapping up after a massive earnings beat. He points to NVIDIA as a potential short setup if it breaks below a certain level, considering it a "textbook short." He suggests a "discongruency" where indices are pushed higher by small caps while some large-cap stocks are pulling back. He notes the market's overleveraged and overvalued state, referencing a Paul Tudor Jones podcast. He then explains how to use SMT in TradFi by looking for divergences between related assets like the NQ (NASDAQ 100 futures) and ES (S&P 500 futures). He gives an example where one asset makes a higher high while the other makes a lower high, indicating a better short opportunity in the weaker asset. The speaker offers brief analyses of several requested altcoins and stocks. For Intel, he acknowledges its significant gains but advises caution due to being in "complete price discovery." For TRX, he notes its sustained bullishness. For Bonk, he outlines two trading options: accumulate near range lows or wait for a breakout above the range. He uses this as a segue to a broader point about attention allocation, arguing that many altcoins have been range-bound for months while equities have offered significant volatility. He emphasizes that mental bandwidth is finite and should be directed towards the most promising opportunities. He distinguishes Pengu, which has broken out into an uptrend, from Bonk, which is still ranging. He discusses his personal health journey, losing weight and improving blood markers naturally without peptides or steroids, highlighting the importance of focused effort and healthy habits. He then reviews CRV, noting its current position at rock bottom, potentially accumulation or a manipulation move before a rip. He advises setting alerts at the high and low of its current range and waiting for a break. For Palantir, he sees bearish structure on the weekly timeframe, anticipating another lower low, but acknowledges the possibility of a reversal if it holds a monthly higher low. He briefly touches on Monad, wanting it to hold a retest and demand zone for a bullish argument. For Zcash, he sees an attempted breakout from a range and advises watching for a hold of a fair value gap. On Polymarket, he discusses NBA championship bets, favoring the Western Conference winner, specifically OKC or San Antonio, and suggests a straddle bet if they meet in the finals. He also places flyers on several teams for the World Cup, including Argentina, and makes a speculative bet on Messi confirming his participation, expecting the odds to jump. He also considers betting on Elon Musk winning his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI, noting the lack of volume but potential for a 3x return. He expresses skepticism about zero Fed rate cuts this year, favoring one. He advises against shorting the S&P 500 at current levels without a clear invalidation point. Finally, he critiques New York City Mayor Mandani's socialist policies, arguing that plans for free public transit and government-funded grocery stores will inevitably lead to higher taxes and drive wealthy individuals and businesses out of the city, citing similar issues in California and Minnesota. He contrasts this with the idea of addressing government fraud as a means to generate revenue. He also expresses disdain for "death cultist" billionaires who advocate for population reduction while flying private jets, contrasting them with Elon Musk's humanist views. He concludes by highlighting the "NIMBY syndrome" in the East Village, where residents who voted for Mandani are now suing over a planned homeless shelter relocation in their neighborhood. He expresses concern about inexperienced politicians who dismiss the exodus of high-income earners.