Je fais ALL-IN lors du désordre mondial...

The current global landscape, marked by conflicts in Iran, bombings in Dubai, and fluctuations in the Strait of Hormuz, has led to significant volatility in oil prices, which in turn impacts the U.S. dollar. Historically, such periods present opportune moments for investment. The speaker plans to share real statistics supporting this view and detail their strongest convictions and investment strategies, particularly as they aggressively re-enter financial markets after holding large positions for several months. The immediate risk is stagflation—economic stagnation coupled with rising inflation—which is often considered the worst time to invest. This scenario sees money losing value faster than usual, while risk assets either underperform, stagnate, or decline. This situation is closely tied to the Strait of Hormuz, despite recent negotiations for its reopening. The speaker emphasizes that controlling these geopolitical events is impossible, but they have created investment opportunities due to widespread fear-driven selling. The speaker then outlines what they are *not* investing in. First, they are avoiding government bonds, especially U.S. bonds, because they anticipate interest rates will decrease very slowly, much slower than market expectations. The U.S. Federal Reserve and future presidential candidates are focused on protecting the dollar, meaning they won't rush to cut rates even if the economy slows. Instead, they will intervene to raise rates if inflation rises. Therefore, the speaker believes it's not an opportune time to buy government bonds, as rising rates would cause existing bonds on the secondary market to decrease in value. Second, the speaker is not investing in gold. They argue that the paradigm for gold has shifted significantly over the last 20 years. Previously, gold was a safe haven during crises, with investors accumulating physical gold or bank-held documents representing it. Today, however, people invest in gold during minor panics but sell it during major crises, as observed with the Strait of Hormuz situation. Furthermore, even before this paradigm shift, gold would rise during periods of uncertainty but would fall alongside stocks during severe events like pandemics, as investors sold gold to buy discounted stocks. Third, the speaker avoids defensive or value stocks. Current ratios for defensive stocks are historically high compared to other sectors because worried investors have already flocked to seemingly safe companies like Coca-Cola and Johnson & Johnson. The speaker believes that global conflicts will likely diminish in the coming months, causing these defensive stocks to return to normal, historically median valuations. They recently sold a position in an Asia Pacific (ex-Japan) hedge fund, realizing a 17.8% gain in under six months. This investment was made for diversification when U.S. positions were high, and international stock valuations were low, partly due to discussions around the petrodollar. Now, international stock valuations have surged, outperforming the S&P 500 over the past year, leading the speaker to sell this hedge fund for liquidity. With this new liquidity, the speaker reveals their current investment strategy, acknowledging they are an experienced investor who hedges bets to profit regardless of market conditions. Their strategy targets different scenarios. In the first scenario, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for years, oil prices explode, and people stay home, they will consume more online content and goods. The speaker is investing in online businesses through their club deal at enlanaset.com, acquiring a large U.S.-based website (details are under NDA). They plan to expand its traffic and revenue streams, a strategy that previously yielded significant returns during the pandemic when online business revenues tripled. This is a strong conviction, betting on increased online consumption during a recession. In the second scenario, if the economy recovers, conflicts resolve, and predictions of doom were wrong, the speaker looks at several criteria. The current "fear and greed index" shows extreme fear, which the speaker attributes to media sensationalism around conflicts. However, they believe the reality is different. They also examine valuations. The S&P 500 technology sector currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1, historically one of its lowest in years, while its profits are at an all-time high. Additionally, the Fed's interest rates are 3.5-3.75%, higher than the 1.5-2% average of the last decade. This means the Fed has room to cut rates to support the economy if inflation is controlled, potentially sparking market euphoria. U.S. unemployment is 4.3%, lower than the 10-year average of 5.5%. These three factors—low valuations, high profits, and flexible Fed rates—signal a "green light" to buy U.S. technology stocks. The speaker is investing heavily in the SCHG ETF, which focuses on U.S. large-cap growth stocks, emphasizing this is their strongest conviction since the pandemic and they aim for zero liquidity. For European residents, who cannot access SCHG due to regulatory restrictions, the speaker suggests three alternative ETFs that offer similar exposure and may be eligible for specific European investment accounts. Addressing concerns about new wars, the speaker cites an Artford Fund Study showing that in 73% of the 23 major conflicts since WWII, the S&P 500 showed a positive return one year after the conflict began. Finally, the speaker teases an upcoming video on why wealthy individuals avoid real estate, urging viewers to subscribe to avoid missing this crucial information. They conclude by encouraging viewers to click the link for more information on private equity in the U.S.