ALERTE BITCOIN ! 🚨 CONFLIT IRAN USA PEUT REPRENDRE !!

The D3 of Hormuz is reportedly closed, with 20% of global oil still blocked. The truce between the United States and Iran is precarious. The Trump camp frequently claims a deal is imminent and progressing, but simultaneously, troops are being massively deployed, and Iran appears to be preparing for a new conflict. This summary will address these geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on Bitcoin. Before delving into the analysis, access to VIP content, including a mentorship report, is available for free. This report, posted last Friday, offers insights into institutional activities and preparations for market movements. To gain access, users must register on Wix via a specific partner link, be active on the platform, and then complete a form. Upon submission, a Discord link is provided, leading to a channel where users can enter their Wix UID to unlock VIP crypto and market review sections. Inactivity on Wix may temporarily prevent access, but continued use will eventually grant it. Regarding Bitcoin (BTC), Trump’s fluctuating statements – from hinting at a potential agreement to reimposing pressure, especially with the D3 closure – contrast with Iran’s apparent readiness for escalation. Simultaneously, Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon last Friday. The overall situation remains uncertain. It's crucial to understand that all assets have "delivered." This term signifies that the market has moved from point A to point B, and a "delivery" can mark a turning point or a consolidation phase before further decline. Markets rarely move in a straight line; instead, they often reach specific objectives, known as delivery zones, where prices then consolidate before taking a new direction or reversing. For instance, when the dollar reached a delivery zone, it signaled a local peak, followed by a retracement. The objective became the March low, which was delivered, leading to a rebound. This delivery zone can either lead to consolidation and further decline or consolidation and a rally. If the conflict resumes, the dollar is well-positioned to rise towards its gaps and potentially pressure recent highs, which is negative for risk assets. Oil is another key indicator; a sharp rise in oil prices signals market distress, while a fall indicates stability. Oil has also reached a major objective. The speaker notes that historical price data needs updating due to expiring contracts, which shifts prices but not the underlying chart. Currently, oil is pulling back into a previously broken range. As long as oil doesn't re-enter this range, it's theoretically in a bullish phase, capable of consolidating or rising further. A confirmed bearish reversal would involve settling below recent lows and re-entering the range. Oil has delivered an objective, allowing it to enter a potential consolidation, rebound, or upward trend, with the next target being previous highs. If oil reaches $115 in a month, it would logically imply a resumption of the conflict, without needing to know specific geopolitical events. Thus, with oil having delivered its current zone, its future movement will be observed to gauge the conflict's progression. A resumption of conflict would see oil rise, potentially attacking the bearish leg or making new highs, as its dynamic remains bullish. This represents a pessimistic scenario for markets. Conversely, for Bitcoin and American indices, the Nasdaq has reached a new All-Time High (ATH), which is a delivery zone. This suggests that prices may consolidate, slow their upward momentum, or reverse if the conflict reignites. Previous delivery points, confirmed by institutional positioning (COD report) and price action (order blocks, fair value gaps, breaker blocks), triggered bullish rallies. However, the market is now perfectly poised for a reversal if the conflict resumes, as sellers have been liquidated (stops above ATH triggered), and many buyers have FOMO (fear of missing out). Bitcoin, too, is in a precarious position. On the CME, which is closed for the weekend, the spot Bitcoin chart shows it has reclaimed the March high and purged recent highs. Historically, purging recent highs often leads to a corrective movement. While not guaranteed, Bitcoin is in a perfect position for a dip if needed, with a potential target of $70,400 if the conflict resumes. This level is an obvious stop zone created by the market, as liquidity wasn't taken before the recent upward move. A resumption of strikes and an expansion of the conflict would likely see Bitcoin at $70,400. Looking at other indices: the S&P 500 and Russell have also delivered ATHs, making them vulnerable if the situation deteriorates. The Dow Jones, however, still has room to reach new ATHs. Trump's strategy might involve creating a superficial ceasefire and spreading positive news to inflate market prices, only to launch a real attack later. By doing so, the markets would have rallied significantly, mitigating the impact of a subsequent downturn. This would allow Trump to claim that markets remained resilient and provided an opportunity to sell at historical highs. Technically, Bitcoin’s momentum isn’t exceptionally strong. It shows a pattern of making new highs and then re-integrating. The question is whether it will re-integrate after the latest high. If so, there are several potential objectives: 1. **Conflict Resumes:** A retracement to $70,400 is plausible. If the conflict intensifies significantly, it could drop to $64,900 or even retest previous lows, signaling a major market crash. 2. **Conflict Resumes but Structure Holds:** Bitcoin forms a higher low, maintaining its upward dynamic. Despite bearish sentiment, it continues to rise. 3. **No Conflict:** If no conflict resumes, a definitive agreement is reached, and strong momentum is maintained. The minimal downside would be just below current levels, taking liquidity, and then continuing to rise. A slightly deeper dip might see it briefly touch below $70,400, where many buyers' stops are located. Open interest data shows a massive closure of positions. A significant spike in open interest (from $7.4 billion to $8.5 billion) occurred last Friday on positive news, but positions were closed over the weekend. This indicates that market participants are protecting themselves against potential events next week. Regarding personal risk management, the speaker had a long position, 90% of which was already taken profit. The remaining 10% has a stop-loss at breakeven, with a final target of $79,453. This position is essentially risk-free. A short position was also initiated based on an order block formation within a fair value gap, anticipating a local top or reversal. Small profits were taken, with further targets at $74,467 (to retest an impulse that didn't take stops) and below Thursday’s low. The largest short target is $73,960, anticipating a significant retracement that liquidates buyers, irrespective of conflict, aligning with the pattern of re-integration after new highs. Spot exposure remains hedged, a strategy employed since Bitcoin was around $113,000-$114,000. This involves shorting Bitcoin without leverage, allowing for accumulation of more Bitcoin during downturns without changing the dollar value of the holding. This strategy is maintained because the speaker does not believe the market has found its definitive bottom, nor is the bear market over. While a rebound and distribution are expected, a third or fourth quarter downturn is anticipated, potentially pushing Bitcoin below $58,000, and theoretically even below $49,000. However, because many are currently predicting these lower levels, the speaker believes the market will only reach them when such expectations have faded. Options data reveals institutional sentiment. For the May 29th expiration, significant open interest is observed at three strike prices, all on the buy side (calls). Since late March, large calls at $80,000 have been bought, when Bitcoin was around $66,000. These positions have not been closed, indicating an expectation of price appreciation. More recently, on April 17th, a large purchase of calls at $82,000 was made, equivalent to over 4,000 Bitcoin in open interest. This suggests continued speculation for a bullish continuation in the second quarter, with targets of $80,000, $82,000, and $84,000. However, some $84,000 calls opened in early April are now being closed, possibly indicating an adjustment of expectations for the end of May. If these call open interests collapse, it would signal a bearish shift. Conversely, recent put purchases on April 15th at $74,000, though not the largest, suggest some speculation for a downside move. An explosion of put open interest combined with call closures would indicate a bearish scenario if the conflict resumes. Ethereum’s price action has mirrored Bitcoin’s, achieving similar objectives. If it retraces, the next targets would be around $2,286 and potentially $2,158 if a deeper correction occurs. In conclusion, the current market is complex, with geopolitical tensions and technical indicators pointing to various possibilities. Risk management is paramount, and the speaker has prepared for both conflict and no-conflict scenarios. The provided VIP report offers further institutional insights, available for free to eligible users.