NFA Live! Bitcoin in 2026

In this episode of NFA Live, Ben, Guy from Coin Bureau, and Rob from Digital Asset News discussed several current topics, including X money, the Clarity Act, monetary policy, and the stock market. The conversation began with X money, formerly known as Twitter. Guy explained that X’s ambition to become a "financial super app" is inspired by successful models in China, like WeChat, which integrate numerous features beyond social media, such as payments, utilities, and travel services. This approach aims to boost user retention by keeping people within the app for a wide range of activities. Guy noted Elon Musk’s long-standing goal to transform X into such a super app, referencing a tweet from X’s head of product, Nikita Bier, hinting at a new launch to "fix" crypto. However, Guy observed that X money, as currently implemented, doesn't appear to run on blockchain rails and seems to leverage Visa, deferring to Rob for more details. Rob elaborated on X money, confirming Guy’s observation about the initial rollout being somewhat underwhelming. He described "cash tags," which allow users to see charts and posts related to financial assets like Nvidia or Bitcoin by typing a money sign before the ticker. Rob initially dismissed this as a "nothing burger," but then highlighted the broader vision. He emphasized that this is likely just the first iteration of X’s plan to become a comprehensive super app, similar to WeChat. Rob pointed out the significance of X obtaining money transmitter licenses in every U.S. state, indicating a serious intent to offer extensive financial services. These proposed services include high-yield savings accounts (6% APY), debit cards with cashback (3%), peer-to-peer payments, and direct deposit, all FDIC-insured through crossover bank. For Canadians, X money already integrates with Wealthsimple, allowing for stock and crypto trading, and banking services. Rob further speculated on the potential for tokenization of real-world assets like stocks, metals, and treasuries, enabling 24/7 trading within the app. He also envisioned X using its data to offer users better deals on services like internet (Starlink) or ride-sharing (Tesla robo-taxi), consolidating various aspects of daily life into one platform. While acknowledging the potential, Rob cautioned that there's a long way to go, and issues like the source of the 6% APY and the implications of being banned from X for banking services need careful consideration. Guy added that similar super apps, like Careem in the UAE, offer ride-hailing, grocery ordering, cleaning services, and even financial services, highlighting their utility in regions outside the West. He pondered why such apps haven't gained traction in the US and UK, suggesting regulatory hurdles as a primary reason. The discussion then shifted to the Clarity Act. Rob was pessimistic, stating it’s "not gonna pass." Guy elaborated, explaining that the act is not on the Senate Banking Committee’s schedule for the following week. He noted that banks oppose it, particularly regarding stablecoin yield, which caused a rift with Coinbase, though Coinbase now seems more aligned. Guy expressed concern that with the midterm election cycle approaching and crypto becoming a partisan issue, Democrats are unlikely to pass legislation that could be seen as a win for Republicans. He concluded that "time is running out, and it's probably NGMI [not gonna make it]." Next, the panel addressed monetary policy, rate cuts, and inflation amidst geopolitical events. Guy acknowledged rising energy and food prices but pointed to a recent drop in U.S. inflation expectations as a potentially consequential factor. However, he stressed that the disruption from current Middle East events is "baked in," suggesting that the worst of supply chain disruptions and inflation is "yet to come." With CPI and PPI ticking up, Guy sees little reason for central banks to cut rates. He believes the pressure to cut rates primarily comes from the Trump administration, but Jerome Powell and the Fed governors seem determined to hold rates, with only one dissenter in the last decision. Guy speculated that there might be only one rate cut this year, if any, and even suggested the possibility of rates increasing if inflation worsens significantly. He emphasized that while high interest rates suppress the economy, inflation is "way, way worse" and a long-term killer, making its containment the priority. Rob agreed, stating he doesn't see how the Fed can cut rates given the "tepid" inflation. Finally, the conversation turned to the stock market reaching new all-time highs. Guy brought up the example of Allbirds, a shoe company that pivoted to "AI compute infrastructure" and saw an 80% stock increase simply by rebranding. This, he noted, echoes the "Long Island Blockchain" phenomenon of 2017, where companies added "blockchain" to their names for speculative gains. Guy highlighted the ongoing "AI hype" driving stock speculation, exemplified by Nvidia. He also discussed Claude Mythos Preview, a new Anthropic AI model so powerful at detecting software bugs that it's not being publicly released, but instead offered to major institutions and governments. Guy suggested this could be a marketing ploy, but it has generated significant publicity, fueling further AI stock speculation. Rob added that despite the stock market hitting all-time highs, midterm election years are historically the weakest for the market. He pointed out that while 2014 and 2018 saw all-time highs in midterm years, they were followed by significant dumps in Q4, cautioning viewers to "be cautious" about what might happen. The hosts concluded the discussion, mentioning upcoming Fed and Bank of Japan meetings as potential drivers of market volatility.