Guerre en Iran, pétrole à 100$ et marchés tétanisés : que faire maintenant ?

This summary provides an overview of the current financial landscape based on the provided transcript, focusing on market technicals, geopolitical impacts, and strategic positioning across various asset classes. ### The Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Context The global market is currently navigating a period of significant tension characterized by the ongoing war in Iran and oil prices stabilizing around the $100 mark. While the US dollar has eased slightly and the 10-year US Treasury yields have seen some upward movement, broader markets have not yet succumbed to panic. Instead, we are seeing a "blocked" situation, particularly in US markets. European indices, specifically the CAC and the DAX, have shown more pronounced weakness but have reached technical zones where they have begun to react. The spike in oil prices is a primary concern. While prices are stabilizing near psychological thresholds, the impact extends far beyond the gas pump. Sustained prices above $80 or $90 create immense pressure on risky assets and have a "ripple effect" on sectors like agriculture (fertilizers) and general consumption. Because the conflict began recently, the full weight of these costs has not yet been reflected in official inflation data. Furthermore, as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains unsecure, uncertainty will persist, likely requiring months for economic activity to return to a normal rhythm. ### The Federal Reserve and Inflation Lag The market is currently operating with a lag in data. Recent inflation figures, such as the Core PCE and the CPI (at 2.4%), were in line with expectations because they do not yet account for the recent surge in oil prices. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is also based on February data, meaning the "energy shock" is not yet visible in the numbers. Consequently, the Federal Reserve is expected to remain stationary regarding interest rates (3.75%). Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech is anticipated to be brief and devoid of major shifts, mirroring his previous four-minute address. A significant leadership change is also noted, with Powell expected to yield his position to Kevin Warsh in May. Until the inflationary impact of the energy crisis is clearly quantified, the Fed lacks the necessary catalysts to adjust its current trajectory. ### Trading Strategies for Indices and Forex In this environment of high uncertainty, the prevailing strategy is one of "neutrality" or a "blue cap" approach—staying active but cautious. On US indices, selling at key resistance levels has proven effective. For instance, profit-taking occurred near the 6,600 level on the S&P 500 as the market remains trapped in a range. The market is effectively paralyzed, caught between the resilience of the technology and AI sectors (led by companies like Nvidia) and the looming threat of energy-driven inflation. In the Forex market, the Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD) reached a major downside target of 1.1467. While the overall trend remains bearish, the pair is currently in a "mega range." Recent attempts to sell the Euro on a bounce toward the H4 50-period moving average resulted in a minor stop-loss, illustrating the difficulty of timing entries in a choppy market. The strategy remains to sell on rallies and lighten positions as they approach the bottom of the range, maintaining a core bearish bias without becoming over-leveraged. ### Commodities and the Bond Market Gold is currently in a complex position. Despite geopolitical tensions, it has not acted as a traditional safe haven in the short term. This is partly due to the mechanical effect of a stronger dollar and the fact that investors often sell winning positions in gold to cover losses elsewhere when they need liquidity. Technically, gold is sitting on its Daily 50-period moving average, a level that has held for over a year. Regarding the bond market, the US 10-year yield is a critical barometer. As long as it remains below 4.30%, the market seems able to temporize. However, a move above this level could trigger a rapid, emotionless chain reaction in the fixed-income space, similar to previous volatility spikes. ### The Crypto Market: Resilience vs. Reality The cryptocurrency market has shown remarkable resilience, with Bitcoin and Ethereum maintaining strength despite the geopolitical backdrop. Bitcoin recently approached the $74,000 level, and Ethereum saw significant daily gains. However, there is a stern warning against "saloon door" trading—getting caught in whipsaws by buying every bounce only to see new lows. While the "green cap" (bullish) bias is maintained for crypto, it is not "blind optimism." A true psychological breakout has not yet occurred. For a sustainable bullish trend to form, the market needs to build "steps"—higher lows that hold key indicators like the H4 50-period moving average. Currently, the medium-term trend for altcoins (Total 3 index) remains bearish to neutral. Investors should focus on specific assets that are outperforming the flat trend of Bitcoin, such as Hyperliquid (HYPE), rather than assuming the entire sector will launch into a linear rally. ### Sector Analysis and Psychological Discipline The defense sector is being monitored as a potential refuge, but it hasn't fully capitalized on the current tensions. The strategy here is tactical: buying at major technical levels rather than chasing momentum. Stocks like Rheinmetall and Thales show volatility but remain within defined structures. Ultimately, the most significant risk in the current market is "weather-vane" behavior—constantly changing one's mind based on daily fluctuations. The reality of the terrain is that markets are often stuck in ranges for weeks. Success currently depends on maintaining small position sizes to preserve discipline and staying prepared for the moment the market finally "breaks" in a clear direction. Over-analyzing the "noise" or following conflicting opinions leads to poor decision-making. Instead, traders should rely on technical levels and progressive entries to navigate this period of stagnation.