BITCOIN : PIÈGE CONFIRMÉ AVANT LES $80,000 !? 🚨

Bitcoin is currently diverging from American indices, signaling a potential retracement, which will be discussed today. There will also be a quick update on the dollar, indices, and oil. Before diving in, access to Wig is available, and the new code report has been published. Although blurred in the preview, the full report covers macro, forex, indices, stocks, crypto, and commodities, and is free. Access also includes the VIP section and mentorship. To benefit, simply sign up on Wix via their partner link and be active on the platform, trading in spot or futures. After signing up, fill out a second form with your UID and email to send an access request. This will display the Discord link. Click it to join the Discord server, then navigate to the registration channel and use the command "/AF affiliation Wix" followed by your UID to link your Discord and Wix accounts. This unlocks VIP crypto channels and the market review code report, where institutional market positioning is published every Friday. Regarding Bitcoin, the divergence with the NASDAQ is clear, with Bitcoin falling more sharply. This underperformance suggests Bitcoin is "cleaning out longs," which it is currently doing. Recent ETF outflows indicate profit-taking, adding downward pressure on the spot market. However, order flow currently shows no significant damage, so the situation is still manageable. Long positions are being liquidated, and shorts are building up, adding liquidity to the gap around $80,000. This $80,000 target is still expected to be reached in May or June, during the second quarter. Currently, Bitcoin is in a retracement phase, retesting fair value gap zones. The first step is to see if this is sufficient to trigger a higher rebound. An interesting divergence is observed between the Perpetual (Perp) and CME futures markets. CME futures have not purged stops, while Perp has. Historically, when CME doesn't clear stops, those zones are revisited. Therefore, a return to these zones is expected, and the $80,000 target remains. The current focus is on identifying the low point for the next upward movement, which will surpass current price levels. On CME, multiple Points of Interest (POIs) are forming, including last week's high, the monthly high, and the monthly gap, all serving as clear targets. The retracement has begun, with two daily lows already targeted. While there's a rebound, it's not a rejection, indicating a persistent downward movement. A breaker or market structure shift is needed to reverse this trend. The first price zone to watch is where the market stopped just before yesterday. The low from Monday is expected to be retested, pushing below yesterday's low to address the fair value gap. Whether this marks a reversal remains to be seen. If not, the next step is to revisit last Tuesday's low. On the Perp market, the fair value gap zone remains intact. Drawing the Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) zone from the last movement places it between $75,800 and $74,800. This fair value zone is likely to be worked on. If this zone is breached, the market aims for a deeper retracement, potentially reaching $74,700. If the hourly fair value gap zones are lost, a retest of last week's low at $73,600 is possible, followed by a continuation, taking out stops before resuming work on the zones above. The overall dynamic remains bullish for now, with current signals merely indicating a retracement. On the Perp market, there are signs of liquidity being taken, and a potential breaker forming, suggesting a retest of the hourly zones mentioned ($76,000-$75,600, then $74,700 if the first zone gives way). After several weeks of continuous ascent (five weeks without hunting a low), a retracement is expected. This week or next could see a hunt for a weekly low, followed by a continuation to address the large fair value gap. While a market top is possible, it doesn't align with CME data. Past instances show that when Perp purges stops but CME does not, it often leads to consolidation before a return to the target. This pattern is believed to be repeating. It's uncertain whether the market will stop at the indicated zone or extend to reclaim the weekly low, which is around $74,000 (specifically $74,200 on futures and $73,600 on Perp due to slight differences). A retracement is underway, and divergence from American indices is evident. Tomorrow's FOMC meeting is unlikely to have a major impact, as market participants are more focused on the next Fed Chair and their directives. Globally, indices remain bullish. The Dow Jones shows clear reaccumulation, signaling a continuation. Oil is still working on its last fair value gap and isn't moving lower, as negotiations are stalled. It remains in a range, and a break of these fair value gaps would indicate a move beyond $100, potentially stressing the market. This stress could push BTC below $74,000, the weekly low. The VIX currently shows no signs of stress, which is positive for indices. The dollar is consolidating after reaching its targets. The Dow Jones (an American index) shows a reaccumulation structure. The NASDAQ remains bullish, having already taken out stops as discussed yesterday, leading to a good rebound. However, it's likely to target Monday's low to reach the fair value gap. The Dow Jones is descending in a stair-step fashion, with all lows being hunted while highs remain intact. This dynamic suggests continued movement into the weekly and daily fair value gap zones, followed by a rapid rebound to squeeze positions, triggering the next pump in American indices. Bitcoin is expected to correlate with this bullish movement, which is anticipated to be powerful and unidirectional given the current setup. This looks less like a top and more like reaccumulation. The Dow Jones is expected to briefly dip below its low. Risk assets are currently at a standstill, with momentum slowing. Bitcoin is using this opportunity to fill its fair value gap zones. For Ethereum, a move towards the weekly lows around $2,250 is expected to fill the hourly fair value gap zone. On futures, the same objective is maintained, with a retest below the low corresponding to last week's low. This is considered a target, and while a weekly low might be taken, the market is expected to address this gap in the second quarter, barring significant geopolitical or dynamic shifts. Below $2,250 are interesting long zones, as these are areas for profit-taking, not long positions. The aim is to clear stops below this last low before further retracement. More interesting zones include the reaccumulation zone from the last impulse. If the retracement is deeper, with Bitcoin reaching $74,000 (or $73,600 on Perp), a good zone for Ethereum would be a daily gap on CME around 618 with a small FVG. This would be an attractive reaccumulation zone to continue the upward dynamic and work on the BTC gap. This corresponds to the $74,000 (or $73,600) weekly low. The first stop is at $72,000, though that's less relevant for now. This move would clear stops for those who went long, allowing for a steady ascent and maintaining the intact dynamic. It would be a liquidity grab to trigger the next move to fill the CME gap. In summary, a shallow retracement means the bottom is not far, within current price levels slightly below. A deeper retracement could involve clearing the $73,600 lows. The overall idea is to fill the gap in Q2. The next quarter will determine if it's a reversal or consolidation. Looking back at 2025, Q1 was bearish, Q2 was bullish, delivering a new ATH (on Perp, CME reached it in Q3). Q3 was bullish/consolidation, and Q4 was bearish with a liquidity grab. Q1 2026 was also bearish. The current quarter is bullish, not necessarily a bull market, but a retracement of the previous quarter's movement. The question of whether the weekly low will be reached is speculative. A scenario could involve a brief dip to the weekly low, a liquidity grab, and then continued work upwards. Q3, starting in July, could be a consolidation phase, similar to Q3 2025, with a liquidity grab in early Q4 marking a reversal. If a bottom isn't in, a bearish continuation could mark the market bottom. However, this is long-term projection. Daily observation and the start of the next quarter will be key. For now, the Q2 objective is to fill the gaps left behind. The speaker concludes by encouraging viewers to like, subscribe, and comment, and reminds them that Wig access is free for active platform users, regardless of whether they trade spot or futures.