ALERTE BITCOIN ! TRUMP ÉTEND LE CESSEZ-LE-FEU !! 🚀

Donald Trump's extension of the ceasefire with Iran has injected renewed energy into risk assets, particularly American indices and Bitcoin. This update also briefly touches on the dollar and oil markets. Before diving into the analysis, access to the VIP mentorship code report is available for free. To benefit, individuals must register on Wix via a partner link and remain active on the platform, then complete a form. This process involves clicking a link, entering an email and Wix ID, submitting the request, and joining a Discord server. Within Discord, users need to navigate to the "inscription" channel and input a specific command along with their UID to link their Wix account. This grants access to VIP Crypto channels and the market review code report, which reveals institutional market positioning. Focusing on Bitcoin (BTC) from a fundamental and geopolitical perspective, Trump's statements have been somewhat contradictory. He declared readiness to bomb Iran, only to extend the ceasefire hours later. This back-and-forth suggests an effort to prevent market downturns, as previous threats led to a market dip. Currently, the overall trend for risk assets remains bullish. Observing American indices, the Dow Jones is the only one yet to reach an all-time high (ATH), still needing about 2% to do so, unlike the Russell, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, which have already achieved new ATHs. As long as the Dow Jones hasn't reached its ATH, there's potential for further upward movement. The bias for American indices remains bullish, with no immediate signs of reversal, despite some ranging. Bitcoin mirrors this sentiment, maintaining a bullish dynamic. The key area to watch is a red rectangle, representing the last fair value gap before potentially reaching $80,000 and beyond, particularly a gap on the CME. This zone is crucial for profit-taking for those holding long positions and must be surpassed to target higher levels, including the monthly high from February. On the CME, this is around $80,500, while on the PERP, it's slightly different at $79,300. The next fair value gap on the CME is between approximately $80,600 and $82,100, which are theoretical next price targets. Daily flux analysis shows the market consistently taking stops and continuing its upward movement, indicating a sustained bullish flow. The current protected low is from Monday, which cleared liquidity from Friday, especially on the CME and PERP. On the PERP, weekend lows were also cleared, triggering the current impulse. The objective is a new high beyond $78,200, with the last fair value gap holding. The large CME gap from the weekend has been completely filled. The market is currently facing the last small hourly fair value gap resistance, causing a slight rejection. The aim is to reclaim last week's high and determine if the market will break out towards the $80,000 gap or remain in consolidation. American indices show no signs of reversal and Bitcoin continues to correlate, even outperforming them. Bitcoin appears poised to clear stops above $79,000 (CME) or $78,300 (PERP). If the market surpasses the current fair value gap zone, there's little resistance until approximately $80,000. Specifically, $79,400 on the PERP and $80,500 on the CME are initial targets. A slight spread between CME ($78,100) and PERP ($77,500) is normal. Regarding options, the market is speculating on Bitcoin reaching above $80,000 by the end of May, with no significant closures on contracts for $82,000 or $84,000 (though $85,000 saw a slight reduction). Open interest data shows the $80,000 call contract as the most traded, indicating strong speculation for BTC to finish May at or above this level. Trading options allows for Bitcoin exposure without the full capital outlay, similar to leverage. This suggests a belief that Bitcoin will fill its gap by May. This isn't necessarily retail trading but often involves market making, hedging, or institutional "whale" trading, as the options market has become increasingly institutionalized on platforms like Deribit since 2021-2022, dealing in billions. American indices remain bullish, while the dollar and oil are also rebounding. The discrepancies between these assets raise questions about market sentiment, possibly signaling increased risk perception due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and Iran's reported unwillingness to negotiate. Trump's implication that the ceasefire period was used for military replenishment further complicates the situation. Oil shows no signs of reversal, having cleared stops at its peak, with part of a gap remaining open below $85. The dollar's rebound since its March low isn't extraordinary, and the overall bullish flow remains intact. A shift to bullish sentiment for oil and the dollar, coupled with bearish sentiment for indices and Bitcoin, would necessitate a re-evaluation of the market flow, but this is not currently the case. The focus remains on Bitcoin heading towards its gap zones. For end-of-April expirations, the most significant open interest is for a $75,000 call, indicating speculation for Bitcoin to be at least $75,000 by Friday. Other contracts like $72,000 are already met, and while $85,000 has some interest, it's considered less probable. The May contracts are particularly interesting due to significant and long-standing loading. For Ethereum (ETH), there's a slight delay compared to Bitcoin, but it has taken stops and reacted. It briefly touched fair value gap zones. The major objective, a clear fair value gap zone, has not yet been reached, suggesting ETH is heading there. Given that Bitcoin will also be in its gap, it's technically probable that both will target their respective gaps, provided the flow and geopolitical situation remain stable. A significant fair value gap on the CME for ETH has been perfectly maintained, which isn't visible on the PERP, highlighting the importance of CME data for pertinent insights. This maintenance of the fair value gap suggests ETH is likely heading towards a new high. There was also a potential small daily gap or volume imbalance that the market has worked on, signaling continuation for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, unless geopolitical events worsen drastically.