IRAN : TRUMP PERD PATIENCE ! ATTENTION au DOLLAR..

Donald Trump is reportedly growing impatient with Iran, urging China to exert pressure on Tehran to abandon its nuclear program. Trump has indicated a willingness to resume significant military operations against Iran if China fails to achieve this. For now, oil prices are not reflecting an end to the conflict, and the speaker believes a bearish resolution for oil would involve breaking below its current range. Instead, oil is showing signs of liquidity grab at the lower end of its range, followed by an impulse move back into a discount zone with bullish price action. The resolution of a fair value gap and the filling of another recent fair value gap, coupled with a green candle close after taking out previous lows, suggest a potential revisit of $100 per barrel. The speaker anticipates a revisit of recent highs, and a breakout above the upper range could signify a renewed conflict. The market appears to be pricing in either the continuation or resumption of the conflict. As long as the range remains unbroken, market stress is unlikely. However, a northern breakout of the range due to renewed conflict could put further pressure on bonds. If bond yields rise too high, the Federal Reserve might be compelled to raise interest rates. The market is already anticipating potential rate hikes, with probabilities increasing for 2026 and 2027, suggesting expectations of persistent inflation. A renewed conflict and a northern range breakout could force the Fed to raise rates to combat inflation. The impact on US indices might be market stress, but the speaker believes this year's bottom has likely been established. Any market stress could present buying opportunities, especially given institutional expectations of continued growth in AI demand, strong US corporate earnings, and rising stock markets. Nvidia is highlighted as a key indicator for the AI sector, with recent deals allowing it to sell GPUs to Chinese companies. Nvidia's bullish price action is driving the AI market and US indices. Technical analysis on Nvidia suggests potential for further upside, with an AB=CD pattern projecting targets up to $291. AI, robotics, energy, and semiconductors are collectively pushing indices higher. The speaker views any pullbacks into discount zones as buying opportunities for a bullish continuation. Short-term signals for a retracement are currently absent. Key levels to watch include yesterday's low, which aligns with a daily fair value gap, and a deeper retracement to a protected low. The Dow Jones has not yet reached its all-time high and has hit a significant target. The speaker has taken profits on long positions at identified highs and is looking to add to longs in discount zones, particularly between 49845 and 49772, aiming for new all-time highs. For the S&P 500, the speaker identifies a daily fair value gap and an hourly fair value gap within the daily discount zone as key areas of interest. A breaker pattern also presents an attractive zone for potential upside. The dollar is expected to revisit its gap, with a weekly fair value gap remaining unbroken, suggesting no bearish continuation yet. The speaker anticipates the dollar to fluctuate around its gap and fair value gap, potentially revisiting highs if inflation persists or oil prices rise significantly. Gold is currently contracting and not of primary interest, with the speaker advising to observe its extremes and wait for a clearer direction.