LES INDICES & LA BOURSE MENACÉS PAR L'INFLATION ?

The video discusses the upcoming US inflation figures and their potential impact on various markets, including oil, the dollar, gold, EUR/USD, and US indices. The presenter also provides a brief overview of how to access free VIP resources, including a Discord server and mentorship, through a partnership with the trading platform Premix BT. **Inflation Data and Market Expectations:** The core of the discussion revolves around the US inflation data, expected at 3.4%. The presenter explains that this figure is theoretically already priced into the market. * **If inflation is higher than 3.4%:** This would suggest the market underestimated a potential rise in inflation, which is generally negative for the economy and could lead to a stronger dollar and a dip in risk assets. It would also decrease the probability of interest rate cuts this year. * **If inflation is lower than 3.4%:** This would be considered positive, indicating that inflation is rising slower than anticipated. This could increase the likelihood of interest rate cuts this year, potentially weakening the dollar and boosting indices. Currently, the market estimates a 35% probability of a rate cut. **Technical Analysis and Market Outlook:** The presenter then dives into technical analysis for specific markets: * **Oil:** The focus is on oil's daily fair value gap. The ideal scenario for the market would be to fill this gap and then target the sell-side liquidity below $84. However, if the fair value gap holds, a retest of the fair value gap from the upside is expected. The presenter notes that the previous highs (buy-side liquidity) haven't been taken out yet, making the area potentially dangerous and a zone that could be revisited. A potential reason for this could be ongoing geopolitical discussions between the US and Iran. The presenter emphasizes that sustained high oil prices can pressure inflation. * **US Indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq):** The indices are seen as heading towards the March highs. The market has been consistently taking out buy-side liquidity, with recent price action showing a strong bullish impulse after taking Monday's low. The presenter anticipates a retest of fair value gaps. The target remains the March high of 25467 points for the Nasdaq. The exact timing of reaching this target – whether before the CPI data, on the CPI release, or next week – is uncertain. The presenter expresses caution due to the lack of significant liquidity grabs recently and the presence of relative equal highs, suggesting a potential revisit of these areas, especially if the CPI data is unfavorable. The area within the current impulse move is considered a good zone for continuation towards the monthly highs, unless they are already taken out. The presenter also notes the possibility of revisiting the previous daily low within a fair value gap as a potential setup for a continuation trade. The beginning of a new quarter warrants caution, as a move towards monthly highs could precede a bearish quarter. The presenter is also keen to see the COT report to gauge institutional positioning. For the S&P 500, similar relative equal high zones are observed, with a clear equal high that is expected to be revisited. The previous day's low is also a target, but the general direction is still towards the March high. The fair value gap on the daily chart is seen as a good zone to capture bullish momentum for reaching the March high, and potentially an all-time high (ATH) for the S&P 500, as there's no significant buy-side liquidity above that level. The presenter advises against taking long positions in the current price action without a clear setup and prefers to wait for the cleanup of the relative equal high zone for a high-probability intra-day or swing trade targeting the March high. * **US Dollar Index:** The target for the dollar index is the March low. This outlook is contingent on a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, and the inflation data. While a 4% inflation rate would change the outlook, the expectation is for a retest of a gap for bearish continuation. A shift in market structure and an order block are observed, suggesting a move towards the March low and a breaker. Geopolitical instability could lead to a dollar rally. The presenter believes that a longer ceasefire or a path to an agreement would favor a retest of the March low and the breaker. * **EUR/USD:** The analysis for EUR/USD is correlated with the dollar. The expectation is to retest fair value gaps and potentially the March high. Monthly charts suggest a retest of the high of the last bearish monthly candle, and weekly charts indicate a retest of a fair value gap before potentially reaching the March high. The presenter notes that while this could be a bottoming situation, it's complex. The ability of European central banks to lower rates more easily than the US could create a bullish equilibrium for the dollar. * **Gold:** Gold is currently trading around its fair value gap. As long as the bullish fair value gap is maintained, the expectation is to work towards the previous displacement zone and the Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) of the last bearish move. This zone is considered a potential short-covering area, where a lower high might form. The presenter suggests the possibility of a trendline forming, leading to contraction after high volatility. If the dollar maintains its bearish bias towards the March low, a similar bias could apply to gold, although not necessarily towards the March high, as gold has already taken liquidity and shown a significant bearish candle. The premium zone of the recent move, particularly above the 0.5 Fibonacci level, is being watched. The presenter anticipates a retest of the weekly fair value gap, advising caution within this zone. As long as the daily fair value gap holds, continuation is expected to address previous inefficiencies. The recent taking of daily lows and subsequent bullish push indicates upward momentum, suggesting that the discount zone of this impulse move could offer opportunities for further upside. The presenter concludes by encouraging viewers to like, subscribe, and comment, and reminds them of the free VIP access to crypto trading resources through their partner Wix, which also requires filling out a form and being active on the platform.