"UNE GUERRE BARBARE ET SUICIDAIRE" : TRUMP PREND LE MONDE EN OTAGE

In this discussion, Olivier Berruer, founder of the analytical site *Élucide*, explores the catastrophic geopolitical and economic fallout of the recent escalation in the Middle East. Centering on a series of events set in 2025 and 2026, Berruer argues that the military actions taken by the United States and Israel against Iran represent a "fatal plunge into the abyss," marking the definitive collapse of an international order once based on law rather than brute force. He characterizes the current situation as a "suicidal barbarity" driven by leaders who fail to grasp the historical chaos they have unleashed. **The Collapse of Diplomacy and the "Perfidious" Strike** A central theme of the analysis is the total abandonment of diplomatic trust. Berruer traces this decline back to Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement, which had been functioning effectively. This set the stage for a cycle of betrayal. By 2025, a brief "12-day war" occurred, but the situation reached a point of no return in 2026. During active peace negotiations, where Iran had reportedly made significant concessions, the U.S. and Israel launched a massive, unannounced strike. Berruer defines this as "perfidy"—a violation of the Geneva Convention where one party feigns a desire to negotiate to launch a surprise attack. This strike did not just target military infrastructure; it decapitated the Iranian state, killing the Supreme Leader’s father, mother, sister, wife, and even a 14-month-old niece. Berruer argues that by targeting the families of leaders during negotiations, the West has destroyed the very possibility of future peace. No leader can negotiate with an entity that has repeatedly betrayed its word and murdered their family. **The "Imaginary World" of Mainstream Media** Berruer offers a scathing critique of the Western media landscape, which he describes as an "audiovisual sewer." He contends that television news has constructed an "imaginary world" that ignores reality in favor of comforting narratives. For months, pundits claimed the Iranian regime would collapse within a week and that 99% of the population would welcome the invaders. In reality, the strikes have unified the Iranian people. Even those who opposed the "Mullahs" are now galvanized by nationalistic fervor following the deaths of innocent civilians, including 160 schoolgirls killed by a Tomahawk missile. Berruer notes the irony of media figures calling for the assassination of foreign leaders as if they were "cockroaches," while ignoring the legal and human consequences. This media-driven "reality" led Western leaders to believe the war would be a "video game" with no repercussions for the West. **Military and Strategic Realities** Contrary to the narrative of a quick victory, the transcript highlights a devastating Iranian response. Iran is not a "camp of Bedouins" but a major industrial power capable of producing advanced weaponry. Following the strikes, Iran successfully destroyed almost every U.S. base and radar installation in the Middle East. The strategy of "decapitation" failed to stop the Iranian military machine. Berruer points out that while the U.S. has "muscles," it lacks "brains," underestimating a country that has existed for 6,000 years. The U.S. now faces a humiliating dilemma: they cannot easily deploy ground troops because no neighboring country wants to attract Iranian missiles by hosting them. The myth of the U.S. as a "bodyguard" for the Gulf States has shattered; as soon as the conflict intensified, U.S. forces sought cover, leaving their allies exposed. **Economic Strangulation and the Strait of Hormuz** The most immediate consequence for the West is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has utilized drones, underwater mines, and coastal artillery to block this vital artery of global trade. Unlike the 1974 oil shock, which was a matter of price, this is a physical shortage. Oil and gas are no longer flowing to the West. This blockade extends beyond energy; it impacts global food security by halting fertilizer production. Berruer notes that Iran is now using the Strait as a diplomatic tool, allowing "friendly" nations like Bangladesh to pass while taxing or blocking Western ships. This "lesson in international law" from Iran is simple: there will be "security for all or security for no one." **The Failure of European Leadership** Finally, Berruer criticizes the French and European response. He accuses President Macron of destroying the French diplomatic corps and surrounding himself with "clowns" and "warmongers" like Bernard-Henri Lévy. While Spain’s Pedro Sanchez is praised for showing courage by dissenting, France remains aligned with a "suicidal" U.S. policy. Berruer concludes that France should have pushed for sanctions against Israel—treating it with the same severity as Russia—and advocated for an International Criminal Court to judge the leaders responsible for these violations of international law. Without a return to genuine diplomacy and legal accountability, the West remains trapped in a cycle of violence that threatens to spark a third world war. The primary takeaway is that the "imaginary world" of the West is finally colliding with a brutal, unavoidable reality.