
๐จ ALERTE BITCOIN ! ON EST PROCHE DU BREAKOUT !!
Audio Summary
AI Summary
The speaker begins by discussing recent inflation figures, noting their relevance, and then pivots to an analysis of Bitcoin, currently at a crucial resistance zone before potentially reaching $76,000. A quick overview of market indices will also be provided, along with details about a recent code report for VIP members.
Access to the code report, mentorship, trading formation, strategy explanation, and VIP access is available for free through a partner link with Wix. To be eligible, users must register via the first pinned comment, then fill out a form using the second pinned link, providing their email and Wix ID. After submitting the request, a Discord link will appear. Users should join the Discord, go to the "inscription" channel, type "/f", select "affiliation Wix", and enter their UID to link their Discord and Wix accounts. Active Wix users will automatically become VIPs on Discord, gaining access to mentorship, VIP crypto analysis, and the exclusive code report.
The speaker emphasizes that the code report contains significant information, revealing institutional biases on indices, the dollar, oil, gold, and especially cryptocurrencies. The report indicates a lack of institutional interest in the current market movement, raising questions about its longevity.
Regarding Bitcoin, it remains in a resistance zone and is not yet considered a "breaker," which would imply an acceleration. While closing above the peak is positive, it doesn't meet the definition of a breaker. The market is currently working through the last daily fair value gap, which is the final resistance level before potentially targeting $76,000. If this is the definitive top, a reversal could occur, but currently, there are no signs of a downturn. Hourly charts show no bearish force, only continued bullish momentum.
The previous day's session saw a liquidity grab and a breaker, signaling continuation, as the market respected this breaker and stayed above it. A retest could happen this weekend, potentially leading to further upward movement. The next target is theoretically $76,000, provided the market can overcome the daily fair value gap. On Thursday and Friday, the market retested the breaker block that marked a previous reversal, reinforcing the bullish trend.
Despite the bullish flow, those with long positions should consider taking profits because the market is in the final part of the daily fair value gap, which could be a reversal zone. It's the beginning of April, and the market has only taken stops to the north, similar to early January when stops were taken north before a reversal. This pattern could repeat for crypto, especially given the lack of institutional interest observed in stablecoin flows and the code report. Bitcoin currently follows the flow of indices, which is real.
The $76,000 level is considered very important, as it represents the previous month's peak (March) and coincides with a completely bullish start to the current month, potentially leading to another stop-loss hunt. If the market smoothly passes the fair value gap, pullbacks are expected. These pullbacks don't necessarily mean a drop below $60,000 but rather a retesting of part of the current upward leg, making it another profit-taking zone for long positions.
The current upward movement remains intact, with the price consistently holding bullish fair value gaps, a characteristic of a bullish trend. However, the speaker believes a "Bitcoin to the moon" all-time high scenario is unlikely. Instead, the market is in a rebound phase, with a potential W-shaped bottom structure forming on the weekly chart. For this structure to confirm a true bottom, institutional interest (seen in the code report) and stablecoin printing (indicating money entering the market) would be necessary. Without such demand, a price action similar to previous reversals could occur.
The current movement could stop now within the fair value gap, or slightly above $76,000 if there's no interest, or even in the weekly fair value gap zone (around $86,000-$87,000), which are technical targets for the second quarter if the current momentum continues. The speaker reiterates that this is not a bull run resumption without institutional interest.
While $72,000 is considered a coherent price for Bitcoin ahead of the next halving, especially near average production costs, the fundamental value after 2028 is projected to be above $100,000-$120,000 if the hash rate remains strong. The hash rate is the best indicator, currently showing growth or slight recent dips, but it's too early to call a significant shift. A strong drop in the hash rate would challenge Bitcoin's fundamental value, potentially lowering post-halving production cost estimates to $80,000 and leading to lower prices in a bear market (below $60,000).
In summary, there's no current top signal for Bitcoin, but it is in potential topping zones. If it clears the daily fair value gap, the next target is the March peak at $76,000. This level is a high-probability zone for retracement or even a top, similar to previous quarterly reversals. This scenario, however, doesn't align with global macro trends, which suggest a weakening dollar, rising US indices, and consolidating or falling oil prices. Whether Bitcoin decouples from global finance remains to be seen.
Regarding indices, the March peak remains the target. Recent inflation figures (3.3% vs. 3.4% expected) were slightly lower than anticipated, preventing a dramatic market reaction and supporting continued bullishness for the NASDAQ. As Bitcoin is correlated with the NASDAQ, it's expected to revisit current weekly highs (above $73,400) to fill the last fair value gap at $73,700. Exceeding $73,700-$73,800 has a high probability of pushing Bitcoin to $74,800 and quickly to $76,000, which is a red alert zone for potential retracement or reversal due to extended movements.
Ethereum also has targets, with the peak at $2,273 being a likely destination given the bullish flow. A breaker block has been retested, triggering a new upward movement. The price is likely to continue working through the fair value gap around $2,300-$2,270. If Bitcoin reaches $76,000, Ethereum could hit $2,300, with an equivalent level of $2,400. This could lead Ethereum to explore fair value gaps above, roughly between $2,400 and $2,900, corresponding to Bitcoin reaching $80,000-$87,000. Ethereum will follow Bitcoin's flow; a Bitcoin reversal at $73,700 would impact Ethereum, while a Bitcoin break above its daily fair value gap to $76,000 would likely send Ethereum to $2,400. These are potential reversal zones. If the price doesn't reverse quickly, a squeeze to the next point of interest is likely, as prices rarely reverse in the middle of nowhere without being a definitive top or bottom.