Briefing Intraday - 05/05/26 - WTI et JPY disent non

The market has shown no signs of weakening, with monthly closes at historical highs, even surpassing the trend line of the broadening wedge. Despite this, there's no oscillation in the market, and it continues to maintain these elevated levels. The speaker is cautious about declaring an invalidation of his trading strategy, which would imply the American market is so irrationally bullish that he'd have to cut losses. He's unwilling to risk capital fighting against a market that defies physical reality. Instead, he focuses on trading in areas where physical reality seems to materialize. He updates his oil trading strategy, noting that levels have been raised for the new month, with a bullish target of 118, potentially reaching 120-125 for profit-taking on previous long positions. These trades are already secured, having taken profit at the median of the range and stops paid. He plans to reload on purchases if signals appear, reinforcing positions if they trigger. His target remains 118, regardless of the order in which price movements occur. He feels the market is starting the month indecisively but believes it's more likely to reach 118 than not. He anticipates that the large range zone around 100 will become increasingly improbable as June approaches, suggesting a move towards historical highs. This aligns with his long-term plan of an initial rapid ascent, followed by consolidation, and then a new push to historical highs. He doesn't expect this in May but anticipates it in June, believing both bounds will be hit. He prefers the market to hit profit targets first, allowing more cash for subsequent purchases. He foresees a bullish exit next month, with no resistance levels for June, projecting historical highs of $150 per barrel, driven by his disbelief in de-escalation from the US. He also discusses the USD/JPY pair, which he's been tracking for weeks. He notes the monthly chart shows a delay in inevitable signals that have been apparent for quarters. On an hourly basis, there's been accumulation at the top of the range. This represents a battle between the carry trade and the devaluation of the yen, which is becoming dangerous. He highlights that rising oil prices negatively impact importing economies like Japan. Speculators attacking the yen to finance leverage in the US using carry trade is unwise, as it ignores Japan's economic difficulties. Predictably, the Japanese Finance Minister intervened to prevent a break of 160, having previously warned against it. The market, however, saw some traders pushing for 170. The intervention resulted in a clear hourly downtrend, breaking out of a tight range of 13 bounds downwards, with two sell signals triggering immediately. This isn't a primary trend but indicates that the average will likely move out of context, leading to lower highs and lower lows. He explains how to follow this zigzag, placing stops on highs in a downtrend and aiming for breaks of lows. For the USD/JPY, the daily chart suggests a target of 150, the median of the range, as there's no immediate resistance before it. He sees current price action as forming a new, lower high. If any sell signal appears, he will initiate sales, especially if the market approaches the selling context. He has significant sell orders at 158 on USD/JPY, taking advantage of sell signals in a downtrend with stop losses placed at the previous high. He aligns with the Finance Minister's stance rather than the carry traders, as technical analysis supports a clear trend break. He doesn't expect the price to surpass the breakout level, anticipating a failure in the 157-158 zone, leading to a break of the previous low and targeting further lows. He emphasizes that this is a trend of descending lows and highs, regardless of the exact levels, and he will continue trading this pattern until the 150 zone, where he expects to take profits, while holding long-term monthly trades. He believes the Finance Minister's intervention is a clear message to carry traders. If they continue to play against the government, expecting only wins, a bubble burst is likely. The message is to exit before it's too late. He notes that the market, in the short term, seems to ignore this, but a trend is established. As long as USD/JPY doesn't break 160, he remains confident. For oil, the best outcome this month is a slight drop to 90-92 or 88, where strong support levels exist, and he would position himself there. As long as these two metrics (USD/JPY below 160 and oil above 90) move in the expected direction, he sees current market movements as attempts to buy time against an advancing crisis and a darkening reality, contrasting with the S&P 500's bullish tendencies. He believes this divergence, supported by various manipulation methods, can last another month or two, but eventually, the market will have to confront reality and begin retracements. The S&P 500 is currently alone in this fight against an opposing reality. He monitors these risk markers and executes trades to generate cash, helping manage the latent losses from the S&P 500. He points out that only the Nasdaq and semiconductors have skyrocketed, while the Dow Jones and DAX are not at historical highs, indicating a narrow market focus. If the rest of the world follows, his S&P 500 invalidation might occur. However, if not, oil prices suggest the real world hasn't moved past the Middle East crisis, and its supply chain effects will diversify beyond fuel prices, impacting inflation. Manipulation of inflation figures is possible, but if that's insufficient, the carry trade exchange rate will be affected. Japanese government opposition signals a potential deflation of the carry trade bubble. Continued defiance by traders against the Finance Minister could lead to a bubble explosion, making an exit impossible for everyone. The message is to exit now.