SOLANA : CE BEAR MARKET est DIFFÉRENT ! 🚨 (J'investis ?)

This video provides a comprehensive technical and fundamental analysis of Solana, evaluating its long-term potential as an investment. The presenter begins by highlighting a partnership with Wix, offering VIP access, mentorship, and code reports to those who sign up via a specific partner link and complete a registration form. Details on how to link a Wix account to Discord are also provided, along with information about a current Wix campaign offering bonuses for deposits and trading volume. The core of the video shifts to Solana's fundamental strength. The presenter contrasts Solana's 2021 peak of around $250-$259 with its 2025 high of $300. While acknowledging the 2021 surge might have been a bubble, the 2025 retest of the all-time high (ATH) is seen as more substantial, suggesting the market has found reasons to push beyond previous peaks due to fundamental improvements. Key fundamental improvements mentioned include Solana's adaptability to market trends. For instance, it has successfully hosted meme coin activity and is now seeing traction in predictive markets. This ability to pivot and generate revenue where demand exists is highlighted as a positive attribute. The Total Value Locked (TVL) on Solana is discussed. While it collapsed in 2022, indicating a loss of confidence and a perception of a burst bubble, the presenter notes a significant resurgence in 2024. Crucially, the TVL has shown resilience during the current bear market, dropping only slightly, which suggests sustained confidence in the blockchain. This makes Solana fundamentally stronger now than during the previous bear market. Further fundamental strengthening is attributed to the advent of spot ETFs and the listing of Solana futures on the CME. These developments make Solana more accessible to institutional investors, a significant positive development. Comparing revenue figures, the presenter states that 2022 was clearly a bubble with no strong underlying revenue. However, 2024-2025 has seen a repricing of some of these revenues. While not extraordinary, the revenues are present. Specifically, the "real economic value" (REV) is estimated at around $2 million daily, translating to approximately $700 million annually. This places Solana among the more profitable protocols. The TVL is re-emphasized as a critical indicator of network confidence, showing a stark contrast to the previous bear market. Despite a slight current dip, it remains significantly higher than in 2022, and the revenue generated, even in a bear market, exceeds 2022 levels. This suggests that the 2024-2025 price action, unlike the 2022 bubble, is supported by genuine network utilization and revenue growth. From a technical perspective, the presenter identifies interesting price levels. The $79 mark, the 2024 low, is highlighted as a key area. The principle of buying annual lows and selling annual highs is stressed. Any price below the 2024 low is considered interesting. Looking at longer-term (semiannual) charts, a significant "fair value gap" (FVG) is identified between $79 and $28, which is believed to be a potential bottoming zone, echoing a similar pattern from the past. The presenter believes the bottom will likely be found within this range, with lower entry points within the FVG being more advantageous. Currently, there are no signs of a bottom, and the respect of the weekly FVG suggests a potential continuation of the bearish trend towards the last quarterly low, below $66. The presenter suggests becoming interested again once prices fall below $66. The OTC deal for Alameda's Solana at $67 is noted as a potentially significant fundamental value indicator, and this level also coincided with a bottom in February 2026. However, the presenter personally believes the bottom will be lower, possibly below $50. Other interesting zones include volume profile "crevices," where the price is unlikely to settle below the base accumulation zone, estimated between $25 and $20. Investors who acquired Solana at these levels have no incentive to sell, while those who bought at higher points during the previous bull market might sell to free up capital, contributing to downward pressure. As prices approach the $20 mark, the selling pressure is expected to decrease, as more buyers approach their break-even points. The presenter speculates that if history repeats itself, a 97% drop from the previous cycle's peak could lead to prices around the control points. However, this cycle might see a slightly smaller correction. There's an expectation of business activity below $51, and the bottom is predicted to be under $50. A more specific prediction places the bottom between $32 and $50. A technical pattern, AB=CD, suggests an objective near $54, which is considered a target for the current bearish leg and a potential indicator of an approaching bottom. The 78.6% to 88.6% Fibonacci retracement levels are particularly attractive, with the 88.6% level around $40 being a highly interesting investment price. Analyzing the fixed range from the entire historical data reveals a key zone between $75 and $50 that needs to be retested. Focusing on the bottom and top exclusively, the next area to watch is between $52 and $44, which could be targets for the next bearish move and good zones for placing limit buy orders. Regarding whether Solana will reach new ATHs, the presenter is uncertain but emphasizes the importance of global liquidity. If global liquidity expands, Solana is expected to attract interest. The potential for BlackRock to offer a Solana ETF is cited as a significant future fundamental signal. The existence of a CME future on Solana indicates institutional interest, and the combination of a spot ETF and CME futures creates an environment where institutions can easily manage large positions. Therefore, Solana is seen as a fundamentally strengthening asset for the long term. The video then addresses the common question of Solana versus Ethereum. The presenter suggests looking at the ratio of Solana to Ethereum (SOL/ETH) and their market caps. Historically, Solana has been gaining market share against Ethereum since 2020, reaching a peak of 38% of Ethereum's market cap in April 2025. While it dropped to 2% during the bear market, the upward trend indicates a strengthening position. The presenter notes that in April 2025, Solana represented 38% of Ethereum's valuation. While it's possible this was a definitive top, the overall trend suggests Solana is gradually capturing market share. Currently, Ethereum is regaining strength relative to Solana, which is typical post-bear market. The key observation is that during bull markets, Solana tends to outperform Ethereum. The presenter advises watching how capital flows in the next cycle. If the SOL/ETH ratio increases as money re-enters the market, it signifies institutional preference for Solana. Conversely, if the ratio decreases, it suggests institutions are favoring Ethereum. This ratio is presented as the most crucial signal for investors undecided between the two. The presenter reiterates that Solana has been gaining market share since 2020 and will observe if this trend continues. The current trend shows a decrease in the ratio, and the presenter awaits confirmation of a bottom to assess future movements. The video concludes by encouraging viewer engagement and reminding them about the Wix partnership.