
🚨 URGENT BITCOIN CHUTE ! PAS D'ACCORD ENTRE L'IRAN & USA !!
Audio Summary
AI Summary
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline overnight following the unsuccessful negotiations between the United States and Iran, which concluded without an agreement after over 21 hours of discussions. This failure immediately caused Bitcoin to correct below $72,000, underscoring the market's persistent sensitivity to geopolitical tensions.
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Returning to Bitcoin, the breakdown of negotiations is expected to reignite market tensions. The question remains whether the conflict will resume or if an extended period of negotiation will occur. The core issue revolves around Iran's nuclear program, which the United States aims to prevent, while Iran intends to pursue it. This impasse makes the situation complicated.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's price dynamics have shifted. Previously, there were no bearish signals, but the price recently sought out stops beyond Friday's peak, fully filling the last fair value gap. However, the daily fair value gap remains intact, indicating resistance that the price has not yet managed to break. A significant technical change is the formation of a bearish breaker, signaling a strong reversal in momentum. This suggests that the dynamic could now turn bearish, potentially leading to a retest of the breaker and fair value gap for a bearish continuation.
It's important to note that this market movement occurred over a weekend when the CME market was closed and was triggered by geopolitical news. If the geopolitical news reverses on Monday or Tuesday—for instance, if negotiations resume with efforts from both sides—markets could quickly rebound. Therefore, the market remains highly sensitive to this external environment.
On the CME, a gap is expected to form, as the CME closed at $73,600. Additionally, several gaps from the previous week remain open, including the New Week Open Gap around $67,000 and a New Day Open Gap at $6,900. A new bearish gap is also anticipated. These gaps are likely to be filled.
Analyzing the price dynamics more closely on a daily chart, Bitcoin has not yet managed to break a crucial trough. The breaking of this trough would have confirmed lower price delivery. Since it wasn't broken, Bitcoin appears to be attempting to form a new trough to establish a new ascending peak. The last resistance zone could represent a potential top. If this were a protected peak, then the current developing top might signal a move downwards (Scenario 1). Alternatively (Scenario 2), Bitcoin might fail to create a new low, forming an ascending trough within the reloading zone, which could lead to a delivery of $76,000. This could involve a retest of the reloading zone before heading towards $76,000.
The market situation is complex due to constant geopolitical news and a clear lack of interest in the crypto market itself. There's no significant stablecoin printing or demand for crypto, as institutional interest is currently focused on sectors like semiconductors, artificial intelligence, robotics, energy, and aerospace. Bitcoin's movements are closely tied to geopolitics and US indices. If US indices decline next week, which is possible despite their current bullish flow, Bitcoin could follow. Futures markets are expected to open with a bearish gap, mirroring Bitcoin's current movement and indicating what might happen with US indices.
The current price zone was a potential top for Bitcoin, reacting as such to the news. The bearish breaker serves as a technical signal of a dynamic shift, reversing the price. If Bitcoin fails to react in the $71,300 zone, having already recovered Saturday and Friday's lows within a fair value gap, and drops below this zone, there's a high probability of recovering the $70,400 low (Wednesday's low). This would involve working through the impulse zone, various fair value gaps, and the CME gap (between $70,400 and $72,800).
The outcome depends on market participant behavior and the resumption of negotiations. If negotiations restart, Bitcoin could quickly rebound to make a new peak and head towards $76,000 by forming an ascending trough. However, if the price drops and there's no improvement in the geopolitical situation, it could quickly fall below the March low, reaching levels below $64,800. Therefore, if geopolitics improve, a move towards $76,000 is likely; otherwise, the target is below $65,000. This makes for a highly complex market, susceptible to constant geopolitical shifts.
The current price zone acted as a potential top, reacting to the news. The technical signal of an inversion is present. A true breaker signifies a strong acceleration of price, as demonstrated by examples of bearish and bullish breakers where price accelerates significantly. The recent movement, even if triggered by news, shows a clear acceleration, indicating a genuine break rather than just a stop hunt. Despite a small rebound where stops were bought back, there are no new signs of strength. Therefore, until the price surpasses the large bearish candle, there's a higher probability of moving towards the next point of interest at $70,400.
For Ethereum (ETH), stops were also sought out, indicating a potential reversal. The market retrieved all stops and filled all fair value gaps with precision, suggesting algorithmic activity. A large movement is underway, potentially forming a breaker. If ETH fails to maintain the $2,197 zone, it could retrieve up to $2,155 and revisit the fair value gaps left behind. The market is currently filling inefficiencies without strong directional movement. If ETH continues to fall quickly, the retest zone for this impulse is $2,155, and potentially even the March low of $1,905, but this would require a true bearish resumption, likely accompanied by a decline in US indices and a prolonged conflict due to negotiation failures.
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