TRUMP ANNONCE un ACCORD ! LE MARCHÉ DIT QU'IL MENT ?

The speaker begins by discussing the conflicting signals regarding a potential deal with Iran. While Trump suggests an agreement is close, market movements in oil indicate otherwise. The video aims to analyze these market trends, covering oil, the Eurodollar, gold, and major indices like the Nasdaq and Dow Jones. Before diving into the analysis, the speaker reminds viewers about access to a VIP Discord and a mentorship program, which is a complete price action training. Access is free and can be obtained by following a link in the pinned comment. This link leads to a form for signing up on Prime XBT via a partner link. A minimum deposit of $500 is required for trading capital. After depositing, users click "Obtenir mes accès VIP," enter their email and Prime XBT notification ID, and click "Activer mes accès." This reveals the Discord link. Connecting the account and completing these steps automatically grants VIP status on Discord and sends the mentorship program via email. Transitioning to oil, the speaker notes that the 12-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) is still being tested and has not yet been broken. The previous weekly high has just been taken. The current focus is on whether this was the final push to capture liquidity and close the FVG, leading to a reversal, or if the FVG will be broken. If the FVG is broken, the next theoretical target is $102, and moving above $100 could stress the market. The VIX, however, is not reacting and remains oriented downwards, suggesting that even a return to $100 on oil might not be a significant concern. The market is seen as consolidating and awaiting a definitive decision on the Iran situation: either a peace agreement or a continuation of the conflict. If the conflict continues, oil could re-enter its range or even break out to the upside. The current chart patterns suggest a potential for upward continuation if a breaker block forms, which would involve taking liquidity, leaving relative equal highs, and then pushing prices beyond $115. This scenario would not be positive. For now, this situation has no impact on indices. The market is considering the possibility that Trump is bluffing about a potential deal. Regarding the dollar, the situation is similar but slightly different. The weekly FVG is still being respected, leading to consolidation. The 12-hour FVG has not been broken, and the dollar is not showing the same aggressive movement as oil. While revisiting this gap is possible, a breaker block has not yet formed. There have been no changes in the dollar's outlook since the previous day. On the Eurodollar, after taking out the March high, a bearish FVG was triggered and is still respected. This suggests a potential move towards the weekly FVG. The speaker believes this weekly FVG zone will be maintained for the Eurodollar in the short term. Turning to indices, the speaker predicts the Nasdaq will likely target the lowest point of Monday, as this would cover the daily FVG. Yesterday, the Nasdaq filled the CME opening price FVG and reacted positively, with a buy-side liquidity grab. However, the speaker anticipates a move to clear Monday's low. The Dow Jones is seen as a strong indicator, potentially heading towards new All-Time Highs (ATHs). The Dow Jones is currently in a re-accumulation phase, characterized by accumulating highs without bearish FVGs, indicating a lack of downward pressure. The market is also clearing lows, which is a clear sign of re-accumulation. The speaker expects a significant and impulsive move on the Dow Jones soon, which would likely trigger a broader index movement. However, before that, the market is expected to clear the previous weekly low to fill the weekly FVG and then continue upwards towards new ATHs. The current pattern suggests accumulation before the next bullish impulse. The immediate focus is on clearing the previous weekly low, filling the daily and weekly FVGs, and then initiating the next impulse move beyond 5200 points on the S&P 500. The speaker maintains a bullish bias on indices, viewing dips as buying opportunities. Potential dip zones include the previous daily low, Monday's low, or even areas with relative equal highs near the previous weekly low, daily FVG, 3-day FVG, and weekly FVG, though these would indicate more significant market stress. For now, the speaker suggests focusing on yesterday's low or the opening price low around 7171 points on the S&P 500 as an interesting zone for continuation without a substantial bearish move. The bullish bias remains as long as the Dow Jones has not made a new ATH. The Russian index (Russol) is in a similar situation, having made a new ATH after clearing some daily lows. The speaker wouldn't be surprised by a revisit to last week's low before continuing upwards, unless geopolitical tensions escalate, which is not currently the case. The lack of technical breaks on oil maintains this situation for risk assets. Tomorrow, the FOMC meeting is scheduled, but the speaker will discuss it further tomorrow. The most important data releases are expected on Thursday: GDP and Core PCE. The speaker believes tomorrow's FOMC meeting will bring no surprises, as a 0% chance of a rate hike and a 100% chance of no rate cut are already priced in. Any significant surprise would be highly improbable. Finally, the speaker looks at gold, predicting a move towards the previous weekly low (prev Lilo), which is seen as a clear target. Gold has already cleared last week's low (the low of a bearish candle) and is expected to clear the low of a bullish candle. The speaker anticipates this zone to be an interesting price area, with potential to clear the buy-side liquidity above. However, the question remains whether a reversal point will be found. Gold is currently engaged in a bearish dynamic, and the weekly low was a clear target. If this low triggers a reaction, it could lead to continued bearish FVGs. Otherwise, gold might head towards the March low. Before the March low, there are other targets, including a low around 4444 points. The speaker will monitor for the formation of a weekly order block, which could lead to clearing the March low, but this is not yet evident. A quick look at the DAX and CAC 40 shows them still within their weekly FVGs. The speaker believes the DAX can reach new ATHs after liquidity and gap fills. Similarly, the CAC 40 has addressed its gap and experienced a sell-side liquidity grab, and the speaker anticipates new ATHs for the CAC as well. While gaps have been filled, these liquidity grabs are seen as perfect for forming new continuations. The retest of a small high within a gap is considered a perfect zone for continuation towards new ATHs. The speaker is intrigued that the FVG further down has not been tested, suggesting it might remain open as a theoretical breaker gap. There's a possibility of a final stress move before reaching new ATHs. The overall bias for the weekly FVG remains bullish, aiming for new ATHs, as the market is still considered bullish. The speaker concludes by thanking viewers and encouraging likes, subscriptions, and comments. All relevant links are in the description.