
ALERTE BITCOIN ! 600 MILLIONS D'ACHATS ETF !! ๐ฅ
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American indices continue to explode, with Bitcoin approaching its CME gap around $80,000. We will also discuss the dollar and oil dynamics. The COT report was published last night and is available for free, along with VIP access and mentorship, through our partner link on Wix. To access, register on Wix via our link, be active on the platform (spot or futures), then fill out the form (second link). Provide your email and Wix ID, click send, then join our Discord via the displayed link. In the "inscription" channel, type /AF, choose Wix affiliation, enter your UID, and press enter to link accounts. After a few days of activity, you'll unlock VIP crypto channels and the COT report channel where the latest reports are published.
Regarding Bitcoin (BTC), we are nearing the CME gap. Yesterday, there was no rejection at the short reloading zone before the last peak, forming a breaker, which potentially signals continuation to revisit the April peak and allow CME to target its objective (February peak) that was not reached on the CME market, unlike the Perpetual market. Also, on CME, the stop loss wasn't taken here, unlike the Perpetual market, which I'll keep in mind. The CME is closed for the weekend, but we can see stops may not have been taken, so the market might return there. If you're long, this is a profit-taking zone. As long as this breaker zone is maintained, the goal is to reach the monthly April peak and the significant daily fair value gap, as well as a large part of the weekly fair value gap. This is the market's objective for the second quarter: to fill the CME gap, potentially reaching $84,800.
On the options market, speculation is around $80,000 for end of May and $82,000 for end of June. Those protecting against a decline are around $70,000, while bullish speculators target $80,000 to $84,000, perfectly within the CME gap and fair value gap zones. The price could reverse, but we seem well-positioned to reach $80,000, given the market's reaction and lack of rejection at this price zone before the peak. The market breaking this peak indicates it wants to clear stops above it. An order block daily could form here, suggesting a retest of this price zone. As long as this daily order block doesn't become a breaker block, it could be our bottom zone for now to continue higher.
Yesterday, ETFs saw significant demand, with over $600 million in inflows, boosting the price. Comparing CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) on spot and perpetual markets, spot CVD shows increasing peaks, indicating more buying pressure, while perpetual shows divergence. This suggests the upward movement is supported by spot demand, not just leverage. While this quarter is bullish, the next quarter might retrace a good portion of what we're leaving behind, as many stops are being left untouched, setting up for a future bearish phase.
The Nasdaq continues to make new highs, maintaining its fair value gap with bullish continuation. American indices are rising. The dollar is falling, but I believe it will only retest the April low before potentially returning to the gap. This needs monitoring. The April low will likely be hunted, but I don't expect it to stay below immediately, as monetary policy hasn't changed. Oil is being rejected by its order block, but no bearish reversal signs yet. The VIX shows no strength, so a break of its weekly fair value gap could signal continued bearishness for the VIX and continued bullishness for indices. The Dow Jones, not yet at its ATH, reacted perfectly to the weekly fair value gap, suggesting it will reach a new ATH this May. This implies low bearish pressure on risk assets, allowing Bitcoin to work on its gap.
Ethereum (ETH) remains weaker than Bitcoin (BTC). ETH/BTC has chosen a bearish direction this quarter. After reclaiming the March peak in early April, a market structure shift confirms a bearish continuation. The target is the Q1 low, meaning ETH/BTC should continue to decline, with ETH underperforming BTC. This is already evident, as ETH is much lower than BTC, still battling fair value gaps, while BTC has already broken through them. Thus, BTC is stronger than ETH. For those looking to go long, it would be easier to make money on BTC. I'm not saying to long BTC now, just that it's stronger.
This weekend, I expect consolidation within the last fair value zone, which acts as resistance. Tomorrow, Sunday's candle will open, forming a fair value gap. I believe we'll work on this gap on Sunday