Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

In this video, the speaker discusses Bitcoin's current price action, comparing it to historical patterns, particularly from 2018 and 2022, to speculate on potential future movements. The current focus is on Bitcoin trading around $75,000 in mid-April, having recently swept the highs seen in mid-March but not yet experiencing a significant further rally. A key theme is the concept of seasonality in the crypto market, which the speaker acknowledges is not a definitive predictor but tends to be accurate around 70% of the time. The speaker highlights historical patterns of weakness into early February and early April. They note that while there was weakness leading into early April, it resulted in a higher low rather than a lower low, a pattern observed similarly in 2018 and 2022. In 2018, Bitcoin found a low at $6,000 in February, bounced, and then established a higher low in late March/early April. Similarly, in 2026, Bitcoin found a low at $60,000 in February, followed by a higher low in late March/early April. This suggests that seasonality, in terms of these windows of weakness, has played out, but not necessarily with the expected outcome of lower lows. The speaker then draws a parallel to 2018, where after the higher low in late March/early April, Bitcoin rallied to a lower high in late April and then swept that high in early May before eventually declining. This leads to a discussion of potential upcoming events that could influence the market by the end of April and early May. The speaker mentions the release of a new crypto macro risk memo, available for free on BenjaminCowan.com, which delves deeper into their market analysis and charts. This memo is the latest in a series, with previous ones released on January 15th, February 15th, and March 15th of 2026. Returning to the price action, the speaker reiterates the 2018 pattern of weakness into early February and early April, with the next significant low occurring in June. The lower high in 2018 was seen in late April, with the high being swept in early May. The speaker identifies the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on April 29th as a potential catalyst. Additionally, the Bank of Japan will also have a meeting around the same time, which could influence market sentiment. In the short term, Bitcoin has shown a pattern of a window of weakness into early April, printing a higher low, and then rallying towards the bull market support band. However, it has not yet definitively reached this band, which is considered a key resistance level in a bear market. The speaker also points to the 100-day moving average as a significant resistance level. Bitcoin had previously found resistance at this average on January 15th and is currently approaching it again. In 2022, Bitcoin briefly surpassed the 100-day moving average in March before quickly falling back down, despite printing higher lows and higher highs, which initially created bullish sentiment. A crucial distinction is made between price-based capitulation and time-based capitulation. The speaker believes time-based capitulation is more significant. They argue that if $60,000 is indeed the low, it will likely be tested multiple times, similar to how $6,000 was tested repeatedly in 2018 before a breakdown later that year. The speaker suggests that bear markets typically last longer than a few months, and even if Bitcoin breaks through the 100-day moving average, it might encounter resistance at the 200-day moving average, a level that also acted as resistance in 2022. The speaker emphasizes a time-based and seasonality approach, noting the similar pattern in 2018: a February low, an April higher low, a late April/early May lower high, followed by a summer decline. They also observe that in 2022, another midterm year, a major low occurred in June. In both 2018 and 2022, the market experienced marginally lower prices later in the year. The year 2014 is presented as a different scenario where Bitcoin had a lower low in April, leading to a longer rally that was ultimately rejected around the 200-day moving average. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages, along with the bear market resistance band, are identified as key resistance levels to watch. The speaker anticipates that Bitcoin might head back down to around $60,000 within a couple of weeks, likely by the end of April or early May, coinciding with potential weakness. They reiterate that a "window of weakness" doesn't automatically mean a lower low; it could result in a higher low. Beyond Bitcoin's price, the speaker draws attention to the total market cap, which has not yet swept its March high, and more importantly, stablecoin dominance. Stablecoin dominance found support at its 100-day moving average in January and is currently retesting it. While it briefly dipped below this average in late March 2022, the speaker highlights the weekly moving average, or the bull market support band, for stablecoin dominance. This band acted as support in late March/early April 2022, and stablecoin dominance might find support there again. If Bitcoin moves higher, the speaker suggests watching for stablecoin dominance to sweep its previous low, which occurred at its bull market support band and preceded an expansion phase. This sweep would likely correspond to Bitcoin tagging its own bear market resistance band. The speaker concludes that based on current information, the recent low is unlikely to be a durable bottom. A durable bottom would likely require multiple tests of that level as the year progresses. Midterm years are generally considered weak for crypto markets, with local windows of weakness occurring throughout the year. The speaker predicts that Bitcoin will likely face rejection from current resistance levels and head back down, with the timing around late April or early May, potentially linked to the Federal Reserve meeting. They encourage viewers to consult the free crypto risk memo for more detailed analysis and to check out promotions for IntoTheCryptoverse Premium.