ATTENTION ! LE PÉTROLE REMONTE ! TRUMP NOUS MENT ?

The current market sentiment is characterized by a rebound in oil prices, reaching around $80, which has been ongoing for several days. This movement raises questions about potential deception from Donald Trump and whether the market is already pricing in a lack of agreement. The analysis will delve into the dollar, indices, and gold, with a reminder about the availability of free VIP Discord access and mentorship through a partnership with Premix BT. To access these benefits, users need to register on Premix BT via the provided link, make a minimum deposit of $500, and then activate their VIP access by providing their email and Premix BT username. Regarding oil, there's a clear upward rebound with a nascent bullish momentum. The market is signaling a potential pricing-in of a lack of agreement, evidenced by Iran's recent video suggesting Trump was negotiating alone and Iran's absence from the negotiation table, contrary to Trump's claims of successful negotiations and a ceasefire. The market may be reflecting this reality. While there isn't a strong reversal signal yet, the recent selling pressure could be a precursor to a new bullish movement. A break above the daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) could be an initial indicator for revisiting higher price levels. The market appears to be consolidating within a range, with an upper boundary around $115 and a lower boundary near $80. Until this range is broken, price fluctuations are expected. Prolonged high oil prices can increase inflationary pressure, diminishing the likelihood of interest rate cuts. The probability of rate cuts this year has decreased to 27%, and the resolution of the conflict remains uncertain. A break of the FVG after the recent selling could signal a reversal, potentially leading to a retest of the last daily order block. The dollar is also showing a rebound, but it has not yet broken through the weekly FVG. The dollar is expected to consolidate for the time being, with the next move depending on whether it retakes previous highs or continues its bearish trend. Objectives have been met, making consolidation a normal occurrence. On a monthly chart, the dollar has tested and reacted positively to the March low. On the 12-hour chart, the last FVG is still being worked on, with no clear resolution yet. Both oil and the dollar are repricing FVG zones, and the key question is whether these price zones will be reversed. A slight bullish momentum is present on the hourly chart, with a return to previous bearish impulse zones. A breaker has indicated an inversion in a small bullish dynamic. The premium zone of this movement is being entered, and given prior liquidity grabs, a structural inversion here could lead to a return to previous lows. Currently, the dollar is repricing its FVG zones, particularly a significant one on the 12-hour chart. Indices are currently less affected, with the Dow Jones yet to reach an all-time high (ATH). There's a divergence with the NASDAQ, but the overall bias for indices remains bullish, with potential to retest previous FVGs. The Dow Jones is expected to retrace this zone and then continue its bullish trend, targeting 50,165 points and potentially the Q1 ATH of 50,904 points. This could provide momentum for the NASDAQ and S&P 500. The NASDAQ has not tested its daily low since April 13th, suggesting it might be close to doing so, possibly revisiting Wednesday's low. If consolidation, manipulation, and expansion occur, and previous highs are reclaimed, it could lead to an expansion to recover liquidity and potentially target this week's low to reprice a daily FVG. This would involve zones around 26,450-26,392. The lack of daily low tests over the past two weeks is notable. The S&P 500 is showing a similar pattern, with no significant new highs. It has built up significant relative highs and has indeed tested a recent low. This area is likely the next target. Consolidation could lead to manipulation and expansion, potentially aligning with the NASDAQ's consolidation-manipulation-expansion pattern to reach lows before moving higher, especially as the Dow Jones aims for its ATH. The low of Friday is a key level to watch. The S&P 500 is currently contained within Friday's candle, and it's plausible that this low will be tested before an expansion occurs. This scenario aligns with the idea of consolidation, manipulation, and expansion to allow the Dow Jones to reach its ATH. Gold has been rejected at the weekly high and has filled a FVG. The break of the daily FVG is initiating a retracement, and a revisit to the previous daily low is possible. Liquidity has been taken, and a breaker has signaled an inversion with a bearish dynamic. A retest of the previous low is likely. The low formed yesterday has so far held, making it a crucial zone to monitor. A sustained move below this low would likely lead to the next sell-offs. The current bias for gold is somewhat complex, with a slight bullish momentum, but a continuation could involve working through previously left FVGs. Gold appears to be contracting, with reduced volatility.