ALERTE BITCOIN ! 🚨 SIGNAL CACHÉ & PIÈGE POTENTIEL !

The video discusses a significant divergence observed between Bitcoin and stock market indices, which are currently experiencing strong upward momentum. The speaker aims to analyze this divergence, provide an update on the US dollar, and briefly touch upon Ethereum. Before delving into the market analysis, the speaker reminds viewers about free access to resources like the "rapport code," mentorship, and VIP Discord access. These are available by registering through a partner link and being active on the platform. Viewers need to fill out a form, provide their email and Wix ID, and then join the Discord server. In the Discord, they must use the command `/f` in the `#inscription` channel, select "affiliation Wix," and enter their UID to link their Wix account. Active participants gain VIP status, unlocking exclusive channels and the market review report. The speaker notes that stock indices, particularly US indices, are "literally destroying everything," having broken through a significant resistance level and the last fair value gap. This suggests the Nasdaq is heading towards a new all-time high, with the S&P 500 not far behind. This bullish momentum in indices was anticipated, especially after previous all-time highs were reached. However, Bitcoin is not following this trend. The speaker highlights a significant divergence: on April 14th, when Bitcoin was at its peak, the Nasdaq was at a different level. While the Nasdaq has seen a substantial 2.6% increase in 24 hours, Bitcoin is consolidating. The reason for this divergence is attributed to Bitcoin being in a "crowded long" situation in the derivatives market. Open interest has increased significantly, indicating a large number of leveraged long positions. The market is accumulating stops around the $70,400 level. The speaker believes this level will likely be revisited to clear out these leveraged positions before Bitcoin can potentially move higher and realign with the US indices. The current lack of correlation is partly due to this excessive leverage. Further contributing to this, ETF inflows for Bitcoin have turned negative, with outflows of -$105 million reported. This suggests that the resistance at $76,000 is not currently being aggressively bought to be broken. Buyers have calmed down, as evidenced by Fidelity (Silas) not making any significant purchases, unlike the previous day when they bought 9,500 Bitcoin, which contributed to a price increase. The spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) also shows a lack of aggressive buyers. Technically, the speaker points to a "breaker block" formation after taking out yesterday's low as a potential bullish signal to aim for levels above $76,000. While some may see stops being taken on the CME, the speaker emphasizes using adjusted contracts for continuity, which, in their analysis, indicates the price will revisit previous highs. The question is whether this will happen before or after a potential flush of derivative stops. While not mandatory, a flush of derivative stops is considered possible given Bitcoin's recent upward movement without prior liquidity grab. The speaker suggests that the upward move this week, initiated without clearing liquidity, might be revisited. This lack of prior liquidity collection could lead to a revisit of these levels to clear out leveraged positions. The speaker clarifies that this does not necessarily imply a bearish reversal. Instead, it could be an opportunity to enter long positions for a continuation. The $70,400-$70,500 range, which represents a weekly fair value gap, is identified as a potential area for a bullish continuation if leveraged positions are cleared. The speaker is monitoring whether the price will clear the previous high first or leave the stops for later, considering the latter a more favorable scenario for a subsequent breakout. Currently, there are no clear reversal signs, although a bullish breaker has performed its function. The speaker notes that stops from a consolidation phase have been taken, and the price is not making significant moves, with the breaker appearing "mou" (weak). If the price falls back below the breaker and fails to respect the impulse, it could signal a move back below previous lows, potentially targeting the $70,500 area where many stops have accumulated. This scenario is seen as an interesting opportunity to enter the market for potential gains towards $76,000 and beyond. The speaker advises against longing in the current high-leverage environment, suggesting these might be shorting zones, or at best, a final liquidity grab before a potential drop to $60,000, which is deemed unlikely given the strong momentum in indices. They caution against assuming an immediate breakout, as a counter-move before breaking out is possible. A revisit of the fair value gap within the second quarter is considered likely. The speaker is skeptical that the current bottom is definitive and anticipates a potential revisit of the bearish leg in the coming months. Despite the divergence, the current flow remains bullish, and the $76,400 level on the CME has not been breached. The speaker reiterates the need to reclaim this zone, with the timing of a potential stop-out and subsequent move being uncertain. The divergence with the Nasdaq is evident, indicating Bitcoin's weakening relative to the Nasdaq, likely due to excessive leverage. The speaker advises caution for long positions, suggesting taking profits and managing risk. The ETF outflows on a day when indices were soaring further highlight a crucial lack of demand in Bitcoin's current range. A potential market cleanup is considered possible before a resistance breakout. For Ethereum, the speaker notes it is steadily progressing, having cleared its range highs and is now consolidating, which is normal after liquidity grabs. ETF inflows for Ethereum were $67 million, indicating some demand, but the speaker advises against longing at these levels, viewing them as profit-taking zones. Potential upside targets include revisiting previous highs. More attractive long opportunities are seen below recent lows, in fair value gaps, or if Bitcoin experiences a flush, potentially below $2,155. Ethereum's consolidation is also noted, with a lack of prior stop-outs before its upward movement, suggesting a potential revisit of levels like $2,172 and below. Derivatives data for Ethereum shows a significant increase in open interest, from $11.9 billion to $14.1 billion, an 18% rise alongside a 10% price increase. While many positions have been closed, this indicates substantial opening activity. The speaker observes that despite price dips, open interest drops significantly, suggesting an emotional market where participants quickly fear and lack confidence in their long positions. This emotional sentiment is not indicative of a market top. The speaker suggests that Ethereum could continue to rise, with a potential closing of significant gaps within the second quarter. These gaps are seen as profit-taking areas to potentially re-enter at more attractive levels, especially if a liquidation flush occurs. A large gap similar to Bitcoin's is also present. The speaker anticipates a potential stop-out and cleanup before a decisive breakout and gap closure. The strength of the price action within these gaps will be crucial to monitor, along with the flow of other markets. In summary, the current market trend favors risk assets like Bitcoin, with the dollar falling and indices heading towards new ATHs. However, a short-term divergence with Bitcoin, attributed to excessive leverage, suggests a potential cleanup is needed before further upward movement. Oil is also falling, potentially towards $84. Regarding news, there is little significant data until potential interest rate changes in Japan and the FOMC meeting on March 29th. Geopolitics, particularly concerning "Trump and his geopolitics and his war," could impact oil prices, the dollar, and risk assets. An escalation of conflict could lead to higher oil and dollar prices, causing bearish flows in risk assets, especially if they have already cleared their ATHs. Conversely, agreements and de-escalation would be favorable for the dollar, oil, and risk assets. The speaker concludes by encouraging viewers to like, subscribe, and comment, and reiterates the importance of understanding institutional flow through the provided links.