Long Trade Hit | But the Market is Still Lame

The speaker begins with an update on a recent long trade, which proved profitable for those following along on streams and Telegram. Despite the current market conditions, particularly in crypto, being described as "shitty and boring" due to headline-driven news, the trade was successful. The decision to enter the long was based purely on chart analysis, occurring before any ceasefire discussions emerged between Trump and Iran. Trump's statements, initially threatening annihilation and then announcing a 14-day ceasefire, were considered irrelevant to the trading decision itself. Regarding Bitcoin, the chart showed a retest of the breaker after a sweep, trading to the range high and breaking above it, though it has since pulled back inside the range. For bulls to have a chance at a bearish retest towards 80K, they need to reclaim 72K (specifically 717, but roughly 72K). When sweeps occur at the range high, the speaker looks for reasons to close longs or initiate shorts. Profit was taken on the recent long, which ran for over 3R. While the speaker would like to see a bearish retest of 80-82K, similar to a previous instance where a retest of 110K or over 100K was desired but only reached 98K, there's caution against holding longs with the assumption of reaching 80K. A trend line can be drawn, and as long as it holds, there's a shot at higher prices. However, losing this trend line would signal a move down to sub-60K, similar to a past scenario where losing a trend line led to range lows. This trend line can serve as an invalidation point, where one could trail a stop up to entry or close the position upon its loss. If the price returns to this area and fails to bounce, the position is considered "cooked." From a high-time frame perspective, the speaker doesn't believe the current level is the bottom. The high-time frame view still points to a larger pullback, with a potential bottom forming in early Q4 of this year, approximately four months away, within a yearly order block and monthly low. The best-case scenario for Bitcoin is sideways movement to form a bottom, but another low is considered likely, despite many being excited by the recent "small mechanical bounce." Structurally and cycle-wise, everything still points to further downside, including the equities market. In the equities market, a bounce was predicted after a short position that also ran for over 3R. The only factor that could reverse this outlook and suggest the current low is the ultimate bottom would be an "actual resolution in the Middle East," such as a legitimate ceasefire or a nuclear deal with Iran. However, if the situation escalates with U.S. boots on the ground and extends longer, as suggested by rising oil prices (now at 97), the S&P is expected to follow the predicted "squiggly" path of further downside. Regarding the current Bitcoin price action, it's noted to be a weekly sweep and currently within the weekly or 12-hour breaker zone, which is a bearish order block area. This area is where a lower high would typically form if the top is already in, potentially leading to a wipeout of trend line liquidity. While some hope for higher prices is maintained, the current position is exactly where a lower high should form based on the weekly sweep. Past tops have also formed around weekly sweeps, with one instance not even reaching the H12 breaker before rolling over. The speaker is still holding some of the long position, hoping for a further rally, but acknowledges the extreme volatility and unpredictable nature of current market conditions. Despite these challenges, the speaker is pleased with their trading performance, having successfully executed three or four trades within the range over the last two months, all of which were profitable, including a short on the S&P and calling for the subsequent bounce. Looking ahead, the speaker is working on several projects behind the scenes, including a "whiteboard series" of professional, evergreen content, with the first episode expected to be released on YouTube in the next one to two weeks. There will be approximately 25 such episodes. Additionally, a free newsletter, edited by the former editor of the breakout newsletter, will summarize streams, concepts, and videos, offering another way to share content. Links to sign up for the newsletter and access the free Telegram and Discord are available on the speaker's website, tradermain.com. The speaker also promotes a discount code "maine" for breakout.