Bitcoin Approaches an Important Level

Bitcoin has reached its 200-day moving average, a significant level historically in bear markets. While it hasn't technically hit it yet, it's very close, just a few hundred dollars shy of the current price. In past bear markets, like 2022 and 2018, Bitcoin rallied to this average and often found resistance. In 2014, it briefly surpassed the 200-day moving average but didn't sustain it. A key counterpoint is 2019, where Bitcoin initially got rejected by the 200-day moving average but eventually moved past it. The current challenge is determining if this cycle resembles 2019 or 2018. Similarities to 2018 include Bitcoin finding a low in February, a higher low in April, and then rallying to the 200-day moving average in May. The price action is remarkably similar, with current lows being approximately 10 times higher than in 2018 (e.g., 60K vs. 6K). The 2019 view suggests a top two months before quantitative tightening (QT) ended, similar to how Bitcoin topped in June 2019, two months before QT ended in August. Predicting the exact high point of the trend is difficult, but the expectation is for Bitcoin to show weakness as the year progresses. Even when Bitcoin briefly surpassed the 200-day moving average in 2014, it didn't hold for long, eventually falling back down. In 2019, after getting above it in January, it was back below by February/March. The speaker maintains a bearish outlook, expecting the price to eventually roll over and head down, similar to prior bear market patterns. The 200-day moving average is a critical resistance level, and while Bitcoin has briefly broken it in the past, these surges have been short-lived before the market turned back around.