Alerte BITCOIN : Tout va changer pour les Cryptos cette semaine

The speaker discusses the current state of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies, noting a rebound that is seen as a "step-up rebound." This means that each push to an upper resistance level typically leads to sales and profit-taking, a pattern expected to continue until a genuine turnaround occurs. The current market is characterized as a technical rebound within a downtrend, which can quickly reverse. The formation of congestion and its resolution are crucial for launching more sustainable medium-term movements with stronger surges. If Bitcoin exceeds $80,000-$82,000, targets of $90,000-$95,000 are possible. The speaker speculates on whether speculative flows might shift from stocks to crypto, potentially influenced by external factors like Trump's image improvement efforts or discussions around the Clarity Act related to cannabis, which could boost Bitcoin. The current strategy involves taking profits at resistance levels. Two main scenarios are considered for Bitcoin: either retesting the $64,000 zone for another stair-step push to $82,000-$85,000, or holding the 20-day moving average for a direct push. The straight-line upward movement is not favored. The market has taken a significant hit over the last three months, and while the rebound is building slowly, it indicates weakness and slow-returning confidence. This confidence could break if Bitcoin falls below $73,000, leading to a "precarious mode" and potentially new buying opportunities at $60,000-$55,000. For now, the "stair-step mode" prevails, with profit-taking at $83,000-$85,000 and re-evaluation if prices drop below $74,000-$73,000. Accumulation and discussions of medium-term targets like $90,000-$95,000 would only begin after significant congestion is built. Ethereum follows a similar pattern, attempting to break resistance but failing. The market is holding the $2200 zone, which is positive. The next steps involve breaking through $2004-$2005 to reach the $2006 zone for profit-taking, then the $2009 zone. The speaker emphasizes playing for new bullish legs to take profit rather than holding positions long-term below $2007-$2009 levels. If Ethereum falls below $2150 and then $2000, the strategy shifts to "ostrich mode," waiting for buyers to regain strength in the $1700-$1500 range. The current movement is slow, allowing for construction but also making it vulnerable to quick reversals. Market rotations are primarily within stocks, with crypto receiving timid flows. The discussion then extends to XRP and Solana, which exhibit similar technical rebound patterns. XRP needs to break the $1.40 zone to target $1.505 and potentially $1.77 for a turnaround. Solana needs an impetus to break above $858 to reach $97-$100; otherwise, it risks gravitating lower. Across various cryptocurrencies, the common theme is very smoothed-out, weak technical rebounds. This suggests that a new downward wave is possible if these levels break. However, there's still a chance for an external event, possibly related to Trump's influence, to trigger a more generalized and stronger rebound, pushing prices towards resistance levels like 28-30 cents for Cardano. The speaker highlights the importance of the current week or next week as a decision point for momentum. The similarity in configurations across cryptos suggests an external driver, possibly Trump, is needed. The speaker contrasts crypto-oriented stocks like Riot with AI-oriented stocks, noting immediate recoveries in the latter. The strategy involves breaking initial oblique resistances, experiencing congestion, and then sending a second leg upwards, always with partial profit-taking. The preferred scenario is that the rebound remains lucrative but within an overall bearish trend. Congestion is crucial for building conviction and confidence for the medium term. Finally, the French stock Capital B is discussed, which generally follows the same market trends but faces issues with size and capital raises. It's currently in a "descending wedge," and the anticipation is an upward breakout. However, until then, large position sizes are not advisable. A return of flows across the entire crypto market is needed for Capital B to improve. The speaker concludes by reiterating the importance of external factors like Trump's statements to drive broad market movement.