Beware the Power of Prediction | Carissa Véliz | TED

Predictions are often power plays disguised as facts, and understanding them is crucial, especially with the increasing reliance on AI for forecasting. While AI can be effective for predictions about inanimate objects, predictions about humans are fundamentally different. Unlike weather predictions that don't influence the weather, predictions about people can influence people and bend reality towards themselves. For example, an algorithmic prediction about future disease could increase someone's insurance premiums, leading to worse health outcomes due to stress. Social predictions are not mere descriptions of the world; they are "speech acts" – language that does something beyond describing. They act as veiled commands, implicitly telling us how to behave. When a tech executive declares that AI will be used for everything, everywhere, they are subtly encouraging actions that fulfill their vision, which often benefits them financially. Believing such predictions as factual and acting on them, perhaps due to fear of missing out, is akin to obeying a command. The frequent assertion by those making technological predictions that the future they describe is "inevitable" is a red flag, designed to shut down questioning and demand acceptance. Predictions also invite manipulation. The ability to shape the future creates a temptation to tamper with it for personal gain. Prediction markets, often touted as sources of knowledge because people bet money, assume a naive view of prediction. If instead, prediction is seen as a quest for power, a different picture emerges. Those with sufficient funds can influence public perception by heavily betting on certain outcomes. Historical examples, such as politicians betting on themselves or anonymous accounts profiting from geopolitical events, highlight this potential for manipulation. Furthermore, predictions can create and conceal injustice. Algorithmic predictions are contributing to a "Kafkaesque world" where decisions become incontestable. If a loan application is rejected based on a verifiable fact, like not meeting a specific requirement, it can be challenged. However, if it's rejected based on a prediction, there's no clear way to contest it. Predictions are not facts; facts relate to the past, while predictions, being about the future, are unverifiable and unfalsifiable, making them a perfect recipe for hidden injustice. They are often unfair because they are based on what people are *predicted* to become, rather than who they are, treating individuals as objects rather than agents who can influence their own future. Prominent figures are making grim predictions, such as a future with a modern surveillance state where citizens are constantly watched. This "illusion of a world without crime" could instead be a world of authoritarianism. To avoid sleepwalking into such a future, people must defy these predictions rather than obey them. Prophets gain power from belief, and by choosing products that respect privacy, individuals can begin to resist. Just as it's crucial to rescue a person whose death is predicted, it's essential to rescue democracy when its death is predicted. While prediction itself isn't inherently bad—daily weather apps are useful—a public debate is needed about acceptable and unacceptable uses of prediction. Currently, algorithms are making countless decisions about people's lives without this critical discussion. For instance, in insurance, making predictions at a population level might be acceptable, but individual-level predictions can create unfair self-fulfilling prophecies and undermine the principle of solidarity that insurance is built upon. In cases where fairness is paramount, transparent and contestable criteria might be preferable to predictive statistical pattern matching. To summarize, predictions are not facts but speech acts, they invite manipulation, and they create and cover up injustice. The key takeaway is that predictions can be weapons of power, but their efficacy depends on belief. If people choose to defy predictions rather than obey them, they can prevent self-fulfilling prophecies. Uncertainty, rather than being a source of anxiety, should be seen as an opportunity – the future is unwritten and open to creative influence. Efforts to predict the future often go hand-in-hand with efforts to control it, so caution against prophets and prophecies is warranted. Acknowledging that the future is unknown and acting accordingly is vital for a free society. Instead of bowing to predictions as facts, individuals should find the courage to rebel against tyrannical predictions and fight for a better world, making the future bright through their actions.